It was another interesting round with every win and loss having a dramatic impact on the AFL ladder. The Swans are still on top but floundering after being thumped by Port Adelaide, while Collingwood and Carlton played out a thriller that could have big implication on the Brownlow Medal!
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page and check out the latest Brownlow Odds.
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 21 Overview
The Round 21 clash between Collingwood and Carlton could define the entire Brownlow Medal count. Collingwood got the win in a thriller but do the Brownlow votes to to Nick Daicos or Patrick Cripps? We have them one and two on our Brownlow Medal leaderboard right now, so this match could be vital for the outcome. Others to poll well in Round 21 include Marcus Bontempelli, Adam Treloar, Jeremy Cameron, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Lachie Neale and Zach Merrett.
Check out our 2024 Round 21 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 21 Match Analysis
Western Bulldogs 15.20.110 def Melbourne 9.5.59
The Bulldogs demolished the Demons to kick off Round 21 action with 35 scoring shots to just 14. Marcus Bontempelli was brilliant and easy three Brownlow votes for his 33 disposals, 16 score involvements, 7 marks and 2 goals. Adam Treloar (30 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goals) was excellent in his 250th game, while Bailey Dale (34 disposals, 8 marks), Caleb Poulter (23 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal) and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (16 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) were also influential. Max Gawn stood tall for the Dees with 23 disposals, 9 marks, 44 hitouts and a goal.
Marcus Bontempelli - 3
Adam Treloar - 2
Max Gawn - 1
West Coast 15.7.97 def Gold Coast 13.9.87
West Coast are back on the winner’s list with a come-from-behind win over the Suns who still can’t find a win away from home. Elliot Yeo (26 disposals, 6 tackles), Tim Kelly (31 disposals, 8 clearances) and Liam Duggan (22 disposals, 8 tackles, 1 goal) were important in the middle, while Jake Waterman (4 goals, 14 disposals, 6 marks) and Jack Darling (22 disposals, 9 marks, 7 tackles, 1 goal) were dangerous up forward. Matt Rowell (30 disposals, 9 tackles, 12 clearances) was a bull in the packs, while Noah Anderson (30 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Jarrod Witts (21 disposals, 53 hitouts, 1 goal) tried hard for the Suns.
Elliot Yeo - 2.5
Tim Kelly - 2.5
Jake Waterman - 0.5
Matt Rowell - 0.5
North Melbourne 14.6.90 def Richmond 10.17.77
In the battle for the wooden spoon, it looks like the Roos have avoided it once again as they got up over the Tigers. Luke Davies-Uniacke was sensational with 33 disposals, 6 marks, 8 clearances and 3 goals in a best-on-ground performance. Harry Sheezel (29 disposals, 6 clearances), Colby McKercher (31 disposals) and Tristan Xerri (20 disposals, 6 marks, 10 tackles, 45 hitouts) were also very good, while Nick Larkey finished their efforts with 5 goals from 12 disposals and 8 marks. Dion Prestia (29 disposals, 8 clearances) and Liam Baker (21 disposals, 6 tackles, 2 goals) were good but hard to see any Tigers getting votes here.
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 3
Tristan Xerri - 2
Nick Larkey - 1
Geelong 13.12.90 def Adelaide 13.7.85
The Cats escaped with the important win against the Crows who pushed them all the way. Jeremy Cameron was the difference with 6 goals from 17 disposals and 8 marks in a sensational effort. Tom Stewart (28 disposals), Tanner Bruhn (23 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Tyson Stengle (20 disposals, 1 goal) were also good contributors. Rory Laird (29 disposals) or Jordan Dawson (27 disposals, 6 marks) might be a chance for a vote.
Jeremy Cameron - 3
Tom Stewart - 2
Rory Laird - 0.5
Jordan Dawson - 0.5
Collingwood 12.12.84 def Carlton 11.15.81
Mitch McGovern had the chance to be a hero, but a kick after the siren sailed out of bounds to see the Pies hold on to a classic win. Scott Pendlebury was super in his 400th game with 27 disposals, 6 tackles and 9 clearances to be among the Pies best alongside Nick Daicos (28 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal). However some Brownlow votes are likely to be with the Blues with Patrick Cripps (30 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal), Sam Walsh (30 disposals, 10 marks) and George Hewett (32 disposals, 12 clearances) all busy in the midfield. Interesting one for votes and could be important towards the end of the count.
Nick Daicos - 2.5
Patrick Cripps - 2.5
Scott Pendlebury - 1
Port Adelaide 22.16.148 def Sydney 5.6.36
One of the craziest score lines of the season, saw the Power kick 71 points before the Swans even registered a score as they ran away with a massive win. Willem Drew (32 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances) was one of the Power’s best as he won plenty of ball while doing a good job on Chad Warner. Zak Butters (30 disposals, 8 tackles), Connor Rozee (27 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) and Ollie Wines (31 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) were typically prolific, Jason Horne-Francis (27 disposals, 12 score involvements, 6 clearances, 1 goal) was dynamic, while Mitch Georgiades (4 goals, 14 disposals, 8 marks) was influential up forward. The Power had winners all over the ground so the votes could go a number of different ways.
Willem Drew - 3
Jason Horne-Francis - 2
Zak Butters - 0.5
Mitch Georgiades - 0.5
GWS Giants 12.12.84 def Hawthorn 12.10.82
The Giants stormed home to pip the Hawks in a thriller in Canberra. Jesse Hogan was the star with 5 goals from 17 disposals and 11 marks as climbed to the top of the Coleman Medal race. Lachie Whitfield (37 disposals, 10 marks) ran around by himself all day, while Brent Daniels (23 disposals, 1 goal) and Toby Greene (17 disposals, 7 marks, 3 goals) were dangerous all day. Jai Newcombe (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 11 clearances) and Massimo D’Ambrosio (22 disposals, 2 goals) were best for the Hawks.
Jesse Hogan - 3
Lachie Whitfield - 2
Jai Newcombe - 1
Essendon 13.12.90 def Fremantle 14.5.89
Another thriller for the round with Essendon also coming from the clouds to pip the Dockers and keep their finals hopes alive. Zach Merrett (29 disposals, 6 marks, 7 tackles), Jye Caldwell (32 disposals, 6 tackles) and Darcy Parish (34 disposals) all won plenty of ball, while Jake Stringer (4 goals, 8 disposals, 10 tackles) made the most of his opportunities. Hayden Young (27 disposals, 7 tackles, 7 clearances, 2 goals) and Andrew Brayshaw (33 disposals, 8 clearances) were best for Freo.
Jye Caldwell - 3
Zach Merrett - 1.5
Hayden Young - 1.5
St Kilda 5.9.39 def by Brisbane 19.10.124
The Lions are into premiership favourites as they thumped the Saints to finish the round. Cam Rayner was a star with 22 disposals and 3 goals, while Lachie Neale (33 disposals, 13 clearances), Hugh McLuggage (28 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances, 1 goal) and Joe Daniher (4 goals, 18 disposals, 6 marks) should also contend for Brownlow votes. Josh Battle (24 disposals, 9 marks) and Jack Sinclair (30 disposals, 6 marks, 8 tackles) were best for the Saints.
Cam Rayner - 2.5
Lachie Neale - 2.5
Hugh McLuggage - 0.5
Joe Daniher - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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