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2024 AFL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
GWS vs Hawthorn
Sunday 1:10pm AEST, 4th August, Manuka Oval
The Hawthorn winning machine keeps rolling on with a 66 point thrashing of Adelaide giving the Hawks their eleventh win from their last fourteen games, taking them to the cusp of the top eight.
The Hawks dominated after quarter time, kicking thirteen consecutive goals across the second, third and fourth quarters as the lead blew out to 78 points before some junk time goals for Adelaide.
GWS held on late to register their fourth straight win and keep their top four hopes alive, with the Giants only 1.3% away from fourth place. GWS looked in trouble when they trailed by 27 points at quarter time, however they kicked twelve of the next fifteen goals to lead by 27 points early in the final quarter.
Hawthorn’s win was built off impact over quantity, recording +17 inside 50’s and +11 scoring shots despite losing the clearance and contested possession counts.
GWS rank first in the AFL for disposals and second for tackles providing a balance on both sides of the ball that very few teams possess. Further exemplifying the balance they possess, GWS are one of only two teams in the AFL to rank top eight in all three score sources and all three score origins.
Hawthorn have scored 75 and 72 points from turnover in their last two games so the battle at generating turnovers in the front half will be crucial in this matchup.
GWS will be looking to their big bodies through the midfield to give them an advantage in this clash, the Giants rank fourth in the competition for contested possessions while the Hawks rank eleventh. When they played Hawthorn in Round 13 they won they contested possession count by 19 and clearances by 6, but couldn’t convert inside 50, only producing scores from 36.7% of their inside 50’s.
Match Prediction: This will be a huge challenge for the Giants’ top four credentials, however they’ll be confident if they can convert their opportunities going forward, that they can overpower the young Hawks. The Giants have put a great month of football together with wins over Carlton, Melbourne and Gold Coast, and will be full of confidence playing in Canberra.
The ground will play a big factor in this clash with GWS having won four consecutive games at Manuka Oval. Hawthorn have only played at Manuka Oval once, which was the infamous snow game back in 2019 however only five players from that side will be playing on Sunday. This will be an entertaining game, but the Giants will get over the line at their second home.
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Tom Green 30+ Disposals: Tom Green has been in scintillating form over the last couple of months, with seven straight games of at least 30 disposals. Green is averaging a whopping 34 disposals per game since Round 14, with his last six games producing over 33 disposals.
Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+ Disposals: D’Ambrosio had a quiet outing last week against the Crows, but just eight weeks ago he recorded 23 disposals against GWS. D’Ambrosio has hit the 20 disposal mark in seven of his last ten games, so look for the youngster to bounce back.
Jesse Hogan 2+ Goals: Jesse Hogan’s charge towards the Coleman Medal is one of the feel good stories of the year, with the Giant sitting second with 53 goals. Hogan's last month has been remarkable with returns of 4, 4, 4 and 5 goals. Hogan has kicked multiple goals in five straight games and has kicked multiple goals in 15 of his 19 games this year.