The first game on Saturday night’s schedule in the AFL sees a crucial fixture in the makeup of the top eight as GWS looks to find their way back in when they host second placed Carlton! Jack Tobin has you covered with his full preview and tips.
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2024 AFL Round 17 Preview & Betting Tips
GWS vs Carlton
Saturday 7:30pm AEST, 6th July, Engie Stadium
After an upset defeat against Adelaide, GWS have fallen to the lower part of 3-13th placed logjam, now sitting 10th on the ladder after occupying a top four spot for the long periods of this season. A horror second quarter was the key factor in their 16 point loss to the Crows, conceding seven goals to one to head into half time 33 points behind, after leading at quarter time.
GWS struggled at the coalface, conceding 31 points from stoppage in the second quarter alone. Adelaide scored 54 points from stoppage across the entire game, the second most they had scored from that source all season. GWS failed to be the front half contested team they have been under Adam Kingsley, losing contested possessions -19, clearances -8, and inside 50’s -4, despite winning the disposal count by 38.
Carlton continued their hot form, producing a massive third quarter to comfortably overcome a valiant Richmond outfit. The Blues kicked five goals in four minutes to rip apart the game, as they produced a 13 goal to 4 second half to win by 61 points.
Carlton kicked a mammoth 96 points from turnover against the Tigers, a stat they’ve been excellent at this season, ranking second in the competition averaging 57.1 points per game from turnover. GWS have also been strong at scoring from turnovers, ranking sixth in the AFL (50.4 points per game).
The big challenge for GWS will be trying to contain Carlton’s attacking game, which has been on an absolute tear over the last five games. The Blues have scored above 95 points in each of their five games on their current five game winning streak, averaging 114 points per game. Carlton have kicked back-to-back scores over 130, and the Giants can’t afford to get into a shootout with the Blues.
Match Prediction: One of the key factors in this game is the battle in and under, with Carlton and GWS being the top two teams in the league for contested possessions. Both sides also ranked in the top five for tackles, so whoever can win the battle at the source offensively and defensively will go a long way to winning this game.
In Carlton’s 19 point win over the Giants in Round 6, they absolutely obliterated GWS in some key areas around the ball recording +34 contested possessions and +16 clearances. The Blues have a great record over the Giants winning four of their last five games against GWS, including the last two matchups at Engie Stadium. GWS have lost three of their last four, while Carlton are in red hot form and will be too good for the Giants.
Carlton -7.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Patrick Cripps 30+ Disposals: Patrick Cripps is arguably the most in-form player in the competition, recording back-to-back 40 disposal games. Cripps has dominated the Giants across his last three games recording 39, 42 and 34 disposals.
Tom Green 25+ Disposals: Despite the Giants struggles over the last two months, Tom Green continues to perform week in, week out. Green has recorded over 25 disposals in his last 9 completed games, including three consecutive 30+ disposal performances over the last three weeks.
Harry McKay 2+ Goals: It comes as no surprise that Harry McKay and Carlton’s form generally correspond, with the former Coleman Medallist kicking multiple goals in 3 of his last 4 games. McKay kicked 3 goals in an excellent performance against the Giants earlier this year and will be full of confidence coming into this clash.
SGM Odds: $3.60 at BoomBet
