The Kangaroos may have turned a corner but they didn't get the win in a remarkable match against the Magpies that will be the talking point of Round 14. The Pies are into third place, with Carlton and Sydney the teams out in front at the moment. There weren't too many upsets to speak of in Round 14, but Fremantle, Port Adelaide and Melbourne are on the slide and now under pressure to find a spot in the top 8.
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page (coming soon).
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 14 Overview
The Swans continue to roll on and they continue to take votes from each other which might be crucial at the end of the season. Round 14 will be interesting to see if Isaac Heeney can pinch a vote. He had a good game but we had three of his teammates ahead of him so we'll have to wait and see which way the umpires will go. Marcus Bontempelli and Nick Daicos are now chomping at the heels of Heeney and seem to be peaking at the right time of the season.
Check out our 2024 Round 14 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 14 Match Analysis
Brisbane 19.12.126 def St Kilda 16.10.106
The Lions struggled to shake the Saints but they got the job done in a surprisingly high-scoring contest. Joe Daniher was dominant with 5 goals from 20 disposals and 12 marks and should figure in the votes alongside Hugh McLuggage (26 disposals, 11 marks, 2 goals) and Dayne Zorko (30 disposals, 9 marks). It’s hard to see the Brownlow votes coming from elsewhere but Jack Sinclair (32 disposals) was best for the Saints.
Joe Daniher - 3
Hugh McLuggage - 2
Dayne Zorko - 1
Western Bulldogs 23.11.149 def Fremantle 12.10.82
The Bulldogs were far too good for the Dockers, with the midfield trio of Marcus Bontempelli (30 disposals, 8 marks, 7 clearances, 3 goals), Tom Liberatore (28 disposals, 9 clearances) and Adam Treloar (27 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) near unstoppable. Lachie Bramble (30 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) and Bailey Dale (30 disposals, 7 marks) ran amok at half-back, while Rhylee West (4 goals, 13 disposals) and Rory Lobb (19 disposals, 6 marks, 3 goals) hit the scoreboard.
Marcus Bontempelli - 3
Tom Liberatore - 1.5
Adam Treloar - 1.5
Richmond 6.13.49 def by Hawthorn 14.13.97
The Hawks spoilt the party in Dusty’s 300th to record their sixth win from their past seven matches. Will Day (20 disposals), Jai Newcombe (26 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) and Josh Weddle (23 disposals) were important with their run, while James Sicily (33 disposals, 15 marks) had one of his best games for the season. Tim Taranto (33 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal), Nick Vlastuin (23 disposals, 9 marks, 6 tackles) and Jayden Short (25 disposals, 7 marks) were best for the Tigers.
James Sicily - 2
Will Day - 2
Jai Newcombe - 1
Tim Taranto - 1
Adelaide 10.7.67 def by Sydney 16.13.109
The Crows led by 23 points in the second term, but the Swans ran all over them to record a comfortable win. It was an “Amartey Party” as Joel Amartey kicked a bag of 9 goals from 10 disposals, 7 marks and 6 tackles. Brodie Grundy was huge in the ruck with 31 disposals, 49 hitouts and 9 clearances, while Errol Gulden (35 disposals, 6 tackles, 10 clearances) and Isaac Heeney (29 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) were brilliant as ever. It will be interesting to see who picks up the minor Brownlow votes here. Mitch Hinge (33 disposals, 8 marks) and Rory Laird (34 disposals, 6 marks, 6 tackles) were best for the Crows but are unlikely to poll.
Joel Amartey - 3
Brodie Grundy - 2
Errol Gulden - 1
North Melbourne 19.4.118 def by Collingwood 18.11.119
You had to see it to believe it as the Pies recovered from a 54 point deficit in the third term to pinch it by a solitary point against a very gallant and unlucky Roos outfit. Brownlow votes might be tricky in a game of two halves, but Nick Daicos (29 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goal) shook off a tag in the last quarter to help carry his side home. Bobby Hill (5 goals, 10 disposals, 7 marks) was a match-winner up forward (and likely Mark of the Year contender), while Jack Crisp (27 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) continued his good form. Some Brownlow votes should head the way of the Roos with George Wardlaw firming in the Rising Star award after his 30 disposals, 6 marks, 6 clearances and 1 goal. Luke Davies-Uniacke (31 disposals, 7 clearances) and Tristan Xerri (15 disposals, 6 tackles, 30 hitouts, 2 goals) were awesome in the middle, while Cameron Zurhaar (19 disposals, 9 marks, 6 tackles, 3 goals) was dynamic up forward.
Nick Daicos - 2
Bobby Hill - 2
George Wardlaw - 1
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 1
GWS Giants 9.19.73 def Port Adelaide 6.15.51
The Giants overcame a slow start to defeat the Power to solidify their place in the top 8. Josh Kelly (27 disposals, 1 goal) was important in his return to the side, with support from Tom Green (30 disposals) and Lachie Whitfield (28 disposals, 9 tackles). Toby Bedford (16 disposals, 8 tackles, 1 goal) should also earn a mention for his excellent tagging job on Zak Butters (17 disposals), however taggers don’t typically poll well in the Brownlow. Dan Houston (35 disposals) and Kane Farrell (30 disposals, 6 marks) were best for Port.
Josh Kelly - 3
Dan Houston - 2
Tom Green - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
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