Round 10 of the season is in the books with several contenders starting to feel the pinch as we get deeper into AFL season 2024. Geelong, Carlton, Melbourne and GWS were among the season favourites a few short weeks ago, but disappointing losses for all of them in Round 10 now sees them under pressure. Sydney are sitting pretty on top, while Essendon aren't putting a foot wrong so far as they find themselves second on the ladder. There's a couple of heavyweights on the rise with last season's Grand Finalists Collingwood and Brisbane both landing wins as they climb up to get them back into contention in season 2024.
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page (coming soon).
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 10 Overview
The Isaac Heeney show rolls on, and although we've got him pipped for the three votes the last few weeks, he's definitely polling well and seems very hard to stop. Unless his form suffers or injury hits, then we could be in for a very dull Brownlow Medal night at this rate. Perhaps the $4.20 on offer for Heeney is value at this point?
The main challenger seems to be young gun Nick Daicos who may have strung three best afield performances in a row to climb back in contention. He can no doubt still chase down any front runner!
Other notables who polled in Round 10 action include Zac Butters who is quietly rising up the leaderboard, Noah Anderson, Matt Rowell, Chad Warner, Lachie Neale, and number one draft pick Harley Reid.
Check out our 2024 Round 10 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 10 Match Analysis
Gold Coast 26.8.164 def Geelong 15.10.100
The Suns just love the humidity of Darwin as they thumped the Cats to kick off Round 10 in a high-scoring slog. The Suns had winners everywhere with Noah Anderson (42 disposals, 2 goals), Matt Rowell (35 disposals, 10 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Touk Miller (32 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) dominant in the middle, Alex Sexton (32 disposals, 10 marks) and Sam Flanders (37 disposals, 7 marks) controlling half back, and Jack Lukosius (5 goals, 16 disposals) and Bailey Humphrey (5 goals, 16 disposals) hitting the scoreboard. Max Holmes (32 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) was one of the few Cats who could hold his head up high.
Noah Anderson - 3
Matt Rowell - 2
Jack Lukosius - 1
Sydney 17.15.117 def Carlton 9.11.65
Carlton started well, but after quarter time it was all Sydney as they demolished the Blues. It was the usual suspects for the Swans with Isaac Heeney (24 disposals, 7 tackles, 3 goals), Errol Gulden (28 disposals, 10 marks), James Rowbottom (19 disposals, 15 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Chad Warner who won the medal for best on ground for his 28 disposals and 3 goals. Nic Newman was best for the Blues with 32 disposals and 8 marks across half back.
Chad Warner - 3
Isaac Heeney - 2
James Rowbottom - 1
Collingwood 12.6.78 def Adelaide 11.8.74
Collingwood dominated early but Adelaide hung in there and nearly pinched it late, but the Pies know how to win the close ones! There were plenty of star performers in this one. Nick Daicos had 41 disposals, 6 tackles and 14 clearances, but will his disposal efficiency count against him? Scott Pendlebury (30 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goals) set the tone early, while John Noble (29 disposals, 11 marks, 1 goal) and Jordan De Goey (26 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goals) were also influential. Izak Rankine (30 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) was nearly the hero for the Crows, while Mitch Hinge (26 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) and Matt Crouch (35 disposals, 6 tackles) were also very good. Great game!
Scott Pendlebury - 2.5
Nick Daicos - 2.5
Izak Rankine - 1
GWS Giants 6.7.43 def by Western Bulldogs 8.22.70
Wet conditions in Sydney but it was the Dogs who adjusted best against the Giants, despite inaccurate kicking for goal. Adam Treloar continued his stellar season with 35 disposals and 7 clearances to be the stand out player, while Ed Richards (27 disposals, 10 clearances) and Aaron Naughton (20 disposals, 6 marks, 1 goal) were good contributors. The Giants half backs enjoyed plenty of kick outs as Harry Himmelberg (30 disposals, 12 marks), Nick Haynes (25 disposals, 12 marks) and Lachie Whitfield (31 disposals) padded their stats. Tom Green (29 disposals, 7 clearances) was gallant in the middle.
Adam Treloar - 3
Ed Richards - 2
Aaron Naughton - 1
St Kilda 8.7.55 def by Fremantle 9.18.72
Fremantle ground out a narrow win over the Saints in a low-scoring slog. The battle of the big men was a highlight with both Rowan Marshall (31 disposals, 7 marks, 9 tackles, 39 hitouts, 8 clearances) and Luke Jackson (25 disposals, 6 tackles, 39 hitouts, 10 clearances) producing massive numbers against each other. Jordan Clark (29 disposals, 8 marks, 8 tackles) provided great run off half-back, with Hayden Young (27 disposals, 8 tackles) and Caleb Serong (30 disposals, 9 clearances) valuable in the middle. Jack Sinclair (29 disposals, 9 marks) and Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (30 disposals, 6 marks) were good for the Saints.
Rowan Marshall - 2.5
Luke Jackson - 2.5
Jordan Clark - 1
Brisbane 26.7.163 def Richmond 6.8.44
The Lions filled their boots with a thumping of the hapless Tigers. Lachie Neale (36 disposals, 11 marks) and Dayne Zorko (35 disposals, 15 marks, 1 goal) ran wild, with Joe Daniher (20 disposals, 11 marks, 3 goals), Kai Lohmann (5 goals, 14 disposals, 7 marks) and Charlie Cameron (5 goals, 10 disposals) smashing the scoreboard.
Lachie Neale - 3
Dayne Zorko - 2
Joe Daniher - 0.5
Kai Lohmann - 0.5
Essendon 16.10.106 def North Melbourne 10.6.66
The Roos were competitive but the Bombers took home a comfortable win. Nic Martin (27 disposals, 9 marks), Jye Caldwell (25 disposals, 7 marks, 9 clearances) and Archie Perkins (22 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) were important while Peter Wright (4 goals, 15 disposals, 9 marks, 11 hitouts) and Matt Guelfi (3 goals, 14 disposals) were lively up forward. Luke Davies-Uniacke (27 disposals, 7 marks, 7 clearances, 2 goals) and Harry Sheezel (32 disposals, 9 marks) were good in the middle to show that the future is still bright at North Melbourne.
Nic Martin - 2
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 2
Peter Wright - 1
Harry Sheezel - 1
Port Adelaide 11.14.80 def Hawthorn 12.7.79
One of the greatest finishes to an AFL game saw the Power kick the last six goals of the match, including two in the final 30 seconds, to stun the Hawks who led all game and by as much as 41 points during the third quarter. Zak Butters (32 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances) carried the team on his shoulders with a stunning last quarter that featured 16 disposals. Dan Houston (22 disposals, 8 marks, 10 tackles, 3 goals) and Jason Horne-Francis (27 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goals) were both outstanding. Blake Hardwick probably deserves to be in the votes for his 5 goals from 23 disposals, although his swing late into defensive was costly. Will Day (27 disposals, 1 goal) and Karl Amon (26 disposals) were also good for the Hawks.
Zak Butters - 3
Jason Horne-Francis - 1
Dan Houston - 1
Blake Hardwick - 1
West Coast 16.9.105 def Melbourne 10.10.70
The Eagles continued their revival with a stirring win over Melbourne. Harley Reid was a physical beast in the middle that led the charge with 21 disposals, 7 clearances and 2 goals. Tim Kelly (30 disposals, 8 clearances) was fantastic while Jake Waterman (5 goals, 17 disposals, 13 marks) and Jack Darling (3 goals, 13 disposals, 12 tackles) were sensational up forward. Clayton Oliver (26 disposals, 8 tackles, 9 clearances) was solid for Melbourne.
Harley Reid - 3
Jake Waterman - 2
Tim Kelly - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
