Round 11 of the AFL season continues on Sunday with a tasty little three game slate. The middle game sees the Demons hosting the Saints at the MCG from 3.20pm and as always, we have you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the clash below.
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
AFL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne vs St Kilda
Sunday May 26th, MCG, 3.20pm
The Demons have had an inconsistent season to say the least so far in 2024 and currently sit just inside the top eight at the time of writing with a 6-4 record. Their inconsistency was on full display last week, however, as they traveled west and went down to the Eagles by 35 points at Optus Stadium.
They’ll relish the opportunity to be back at the MCG this week, where they have won four of their last six games including an impressive win over the Cats just a few weeks ago. They will also welcome back some key players into the line-up for the Sunday clash in Adam Tomlinson, Ed Langdon, Jacob van Rooyen and Lachie Hunter. Making way for the quartet are Jake Lever (injured), Ben Brown, Blake Howes and Jack Billings.
The Saints were full of hope entering the 2024 season after finishing in sixth place last season, but it’s been nothing but disappointment for Ross Lyon and his men so far. They are in 14th place on the ladder with just three wins from their 10 games, and have lost four of their last five.
Lyon swung the axe last week thinking it would spur his side on but they ultimately went down to Fremantle at Marvel Stadium by 17 points, a flattering margin for the Saints. Liam Stocker, Seb Ross and Jack Higgins come back into the side for St Kilda this week with Mattaes Philipou, Ben PAton and Zak Jones being omitted.
Betting Tips
The 17.5 point line seems about right given how dismal the Saints have been this season but they have been the kings of the honourable loss and as bad as their offence has been, their defence has kept them within striking distance in most games.
Outside of one blowout win against North Melbourne and one blowout loss against the Western Bulldogs, the Saints other seven games have had an average margin of just 8.3 points. I’m not taking them at that 17.5 point line, but I think with how they are trending this year, they could be thoroughly outplayed and still somehow cover. That doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the line.
Opting for the unders instead here. The Dees offence has struggled over the last three games, putting up just 73.3 points per game and scoring just 70 against the Eagles last week. The Saints offensive struggles are well documented, hard to see this one getting over the 153.5 point mark.
Under 153.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Christian Petracca 2+ Goals - The superstar has been playing much more forward time of late, kicking six goals in his last two games. Kicked four against the Saints in their Round 17 meeting last year.
Nasaiah Wanganeen Milera 25+ Disposals - Has had it on an absolute string of late and I expect him to get plenty more opportunity for touches this week with the ball likely living down the Saints defensive end. Has hid 25+ in his last four in a row and 7/10 this year.
Christian Salem 20+ Disposals - Returned for his first game since Round 5 in the loss to the Eagles last week and looked as though he hadn’t missed a beat, racking up 25 touches off half back. Running half backers generally play well against the Saints and last season was no exception as Salem had 24 touches.
SGM Odds: $4.60 at BoomBet
