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2024 AFL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs Brisbane
Sunday 1:10pm AEST, May 26th, Marvel Stadium
Hawthorn were on the wrong side of the most remarkable game in 2024, conceding two goals in the final 22 seconds to lose by one point against Port Adelaide. Cam McKenzie put the Hawks up by 41 points with six minutes remaining in the third quarter, however Sam Mitchell’s defensive minded tactics proved costly as the Power kicked six unanswered goals.
Brisbane picked up their second win from their last three games in a 119 point mauling of Richmond at the Gabba. Kai Lohmann and Charlie Cameron led the way up forward with five goals each, while Lachie Neale (36 disposals) and Dayne Zorko (35) continued their impressive seasons.
Both clubs have had busy weeks at selection, Nick Watson (managed) and Jye Serong (omitted) are the confirmed outs at the time of writing. James Sicily, Josh Ward, Jack Scrimshaw, Jack Gunston and Finn Maginness make up an impressive list of potential inclusions for the Hawks.
Brisbane will be without Eric Hipwood (suspension) and Shadeau Brian (omitted), with Zac Bailey, Brandon Ryan, Henry Smith, James Tunstill and Darragh Joyce named in the Lions extended squad.
It wasn’t against the highest quality of opposition however Brisbane got back to their attacking best, which has made them such a strong outfit over the past five years. The Lions kicked a remarkable 26.7.163 - their 9th highest score in the history of the club. Brisbane had twelve individual goal scorers and most of the damage was done by their small and medium forwards, which is important given they are going into this game without Eric Hipwood.
Contested possession has been an area of major improvement for the Lions since the start of the season. Brisbane lost the contested possession count in their first two games, but have won that stat in six of their last seven games and rank sixth in the competition for contested possessions.
Match Prediction: A month ago this game would’ve been a forgone conclusion for many, however the Hawks have shown plenty across the last five games with some key players out. Now with Hawthorn regaining some important players, this won’t be a walk in the park for Brisbane against a side that has given them plenty of trouble over the last few years.
In saying that, given what Brisbane have produced over the last three weeks, they should win this against an inexperienced Hawthorn side. With the Lions needing a win to stay in the finals hunt and the Hawks coming off the emotional difficulty of losing an unloseable game, Chris Fagan’s side will be too strong. Brisbane’s four wins this year have come by margins of 70, 22, 34 and 119 points, and given conditions will be perfect under the lid at Marvel, they shouldn’t have any troubles kicking a winning score.
Brisbane -16.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
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Lachie Neale 25+ Disposals: Year in, year out Lachie Neale continues to produce at a high level, with the reigning Brownlow Medalist averaging 28 disposals per game in 2024. Neale has hit the 25+ disposal mark in four of his last five games and is averaging 31 disposals per game across his last three games.
Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals: Zorko has had an outstanding season since moving to half back early in the season. The veteran is averaging 31 disposals per game since Round 3, with seven of those eight games producing performances of above 25 disposals.
Massimo D’Ambrosio 15+ Disposals: Massimo D’Ambrosio continues his solid season, recording 28 disposals in the defeat to Port Adelaide - the most of any Hawk. The former Bomber has reached at least 15 disposals in eight of his nine games this year, with the only time he failed to reach the mark, when he was subbed out in Round 6.
Dylan Moore Anytime Goal scorer: Although he went goalless against Port Adelaide, Dylan Moore has once again been a crucial part of the Hawks forward line in 2024. Before last week’s clash Moore had kicked a goal in six consecutive games, and is averaging over a goal a game.
