An AFC West matchup kicks things off for Week 6 in the NFL, as the struggling Denver Broncos head to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. With the Broncos once again looking like being a bottom third of the league team, the Chiefs will look to finally get their offense going, which has struggled to look good over the opening 5 weeks of the season.
We had a solid week last week in Prime Time, going 2-1 (+2.76u) on the week, bringing our season tally to 8-7 (+1.66u). We will look to continue this form into week 6.
NFL Week 6 Predictions & Tips
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs
Arrowhead Stadium, Friday 13th October, 10:15am (AEDT)
Last Week
The Chiefs were last up road winners, cruising past the Minnesota Vikings 27-20 in week 5. With the game tied at 13 at halftime, the Chiefs came out and took over in the fourth quarter, scoring 14 unanswered points, in what was enough to get the win. Travis Kelce hurt his foot, but was able to come back into the game and finish with 10 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown.
As for the Broncos, they were once again below average, as they lost at home to the Jets. Whilst the Broncos led 13-8 at halftime, they made some crucial second half mistakes,
culminating in a Russell Wilson fumble in the fourth quarter as the Broncos looked for a go-ahead score, which ultimately ended the game. The Broncos are now at 1-4, and another lost season looks inevitable.
Injury Report
Kansas City Chiefs
Prince Tega Wanogho (OT) - OUT
Richie James (WR) - OUT
Jody Fortson (TE) - OUT
Nazeeh Johnson (SAF) - OUT
Travis Kelce (TE) - Questionable
George Karlaftis (DE) - Questionable
Tommy Townsend (P) - Questionable
Denver Broncos
Jonas Griffith / Baron Browning (LB) - OUT
Jalen Virgil / Tim Patrick (WR) - OUT
Alex Palczewski (OT) - OUT
K’Waun Williams (DB) - OUT
Caden Sterns (SAF) - OUT
Frank Clark (LB) - OUT
D.J. Jones (DT) - OUT
Match Preview
These two teams meet for the first of their two AFC West divisional matchups in week 6, with the Chiefs trying to find their best form, whilst the Broncos appear to be heading into full on tank mode. The Chiefs have managed to skate out to a 4-1 record, despite being well below their best offensively, sitting just 6th in total yards on offense, which is still obviously good, just not quite Chiefs’ levels of years gone by.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have been horrific defensively this season, and are a mirror image of themselves a year ago, a team that couldn’t score points, but refused to concede them as well. This season, the Broncos have conceded the most yards defensively, the second most air yards, the most rushing yards, and the most penalty yards. They are also conceding the most points per game of any team (36.2), and with several key defensive players listed on the injury report, it’s fair to say the Chiefs should score in this one.
This number opened Chiefs -10 on the lookahead last week, before reopening at Chiefs -10.5 on Monday. The number has stayed around this mark all week, however if you shop you can find some Chiefs -10, which could be worth a bet. My fair for this one is Chiefs -10.5, so I can see a little bit of value here.
The total was 51.5 on the lookahead, and after another somewhat below average performance from the Chiefs offense, that number has plummeted, opening at 49, before being bet down further to 47.5. I doubt it goes any lower, however if it happens to go below the key of 47, I’ll be making a play on the over. I make a fair total 48.5, so a definite play if this dips below 47.
So, I am a bit more inclined to bet on the total here, however I don’t quite trust the Broncos to get the points necessary to cover it. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have a great chance at
topping their team total, and this is where my best bet for the game will be. Over the past four weeks, the Broncos have conceded 35, 70, 28, and 31 points. Even taking out the outlier against the Dolphins, where they conceded 70 points, they are still averaging 31.3 points per game conceded. With a Chiefs team total currently sitting below 30, I’ll take that
on.
Kansas City Chiefs (Team Total) Over 28.5
$1.86 (2.5 Units)
