The AFL season rolls on as we continue with our in-depth 2023 Brownlow Medal coverage. Every game, every round, we'll have 2023 Brownlow Medal tips, analysis and information, to make your 2023 Brownlow Medal night a profitable one!
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote allocations using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2023 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
2023 AFL Brownlow Round 21 Overview
The 2023 Brownlow betting markets have been turned on their head with the injury to our runaway leader Nick Daicos which will rule him out for the remainder of the regular season. The question now is, does he have enough of a lead to hold on? He has a sizable lead but with contenders Marcus Bontempelli, Christian Petracca and Zak Butters all polling votes in Round 21, the gap is rapidly closing. The Brownlow betting market on Betfair now has Daicos as the third favourite at around $6 with Bontempelli the favourite ahead of Petracca. They are going to still need at least 4-5 votes over the last three games of the season to get past Daicos. Ceratinly possible, but I don't mind backing Daicos here at that price with the runs on the board.
Whatever happens, it's going to be a sensational count on Brownlow night with plenty of twists and turns, and some amazing opportunities in live betting as the markets should fluctuate nicely.
Check out our Round 21 Brownlow votes below!
2023 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 21 Match Analysis
Western Bulldogs 19.12.126 def Richmond 10.11.71
The Dogs started the round with a big win over the Tigers to entrench themselves inside the Top 8. Marcus Bontempelli was superb with 32 disposals, 9 tackles, 10 clearances and 3 goals to be best afield. Tom Liberatore (31 disposals, 12 tackles, 10 clearances) was also damaging in the middle, while Tim English (19 disposals, 8 marks, 29 hitouts, 1 goal) and Bailey Dale (30 disposals) played important roles. Up forward, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan finished their work with 5 goals from 15 disposals.
Marcus Bontempelli - 3
Tom Liberatore - 2
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan - 1
Essendon 10.13.73 def West Coast 11.6.72
The Eagles almost sacrificed the number one draft pick but the Bombers kicked a goal in the last minute of the match, much to the dismay of North Melbourne fans! Kyle Langford was the match winner with 5 goals from 13 disposals and 7 marks, including the winning goal. Zach Merrett (29 disposals, 7 marks, 8 tackles), Nick Hind (31 disposals) and Darcy Parish (33 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal) all won plenty of ball for the Bombers. Tim Kelly (30 disposals, 10 marks) was the stand out for the Eagles.
Kyle Langford - 3
Zach Merrett - 1
Tim Kelly - 1
Nick Hind - 1
Adelaide 13.11.89 def Gold Coast 9.7.61
The Crows did enough to ease away from the Suns to stay in the hunt for September action. Matt Crouch (31 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal) continued his incredible return to top-level football, while Mitch Hinge (31 disposals, 7 marks), Rory Laird (24 disposals, 10 tackles, 7 clearances) and Darcy Fogarty (19 disposals, 10 marks, 8 tackles, 3 goals) were among the best for the Crows. Sam Flanders (27 disposals) and Jarrod Witts (19 disposals, 39 hitouts) tried hard for the Suns.
Matt Crouch - 2.5
Mitch Hinge - 2.5
Darcy Fogarty - 1
Hawthorn 16.9.105 def Collingwood 11.7.73
One of the upsets of the season saw the Hawks overcome the top-of-the-table Pies, and with an injury to Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos, the Brownlow betting market has been sensationally rocked! Hawks skipper Jame Sicily will be getting the three votes in this one for his incredible game of 37 disposals and 19 marks. Will Day (29 disposals, 7 marks, 7 clearances), Jai Newcombe (28 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Conor Nash (31 disposals, 9 marks, 6 tackles, 6 clearances) were too strong in the middle as the Hawks dominated. Scott Pendlebury (23 disposals, 7 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) was best for the Pies.
James Sicily - 3
Will Day - 2
Jai Newcombe - 1
Geelong 14.13.97 def Port Adelaide 12.13.85
The Cats got an important win against an undermanned Port Adelaide team as the Power have now slipped back to fourth on the AFL ladder. Gryan Miers continues to push his case for All Australian honours with 24 disposals, 10 marks and 2 goals. Patrick Dangerfield (20 disposals, 1 goal) and Oli Henry (4 goals, 13 disposals, 6 marks) were also good for the Cats. The young guns of Zak Butters (30 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles, 1 goal) and Connor Rozee (27 disposals, 8 tackles) did their best to carry the Power but it wasn’t to be.
Gryan Miers - 2.5
Zak Butters - 2.5
Connor Rozee - 1
GWS Giants 12.13.85 def by Sydney 15.6.96
An accurate Swans team broke through the Giants defence to record an important victory to keep them in the hunt for finals, while leaving the Giants hanging onto the edge of the Top 8. Errol Gulden was outstanding with 32 disposals, 7 tackles and 2 goals, including a Goal of the Week contender. Callum Mills (28 disposals, 9 marks), Jake Lloyd (27 disposals) and James Rowbottom (24 disposals, 7 tackles, 7 clearances) were also important in the guts while Hayden McLean (4 goals, 10 disposals, 11 hitouts) provided a target without Buddy. Tom Green returned to the Giants team in style with 38 disposals, 10 tackles and 7 clearances in a superb effort.
Errol Gulden - 3
Tom Green - 2
Hayden McLean - 1
North Melbourne 10.11.71 def by Melbourne 15.13.103
The Roos bounced out of the blocks but the Dees eventually got going and reeled them in to record a comfortable victory. Angus Brayshaw (37 disposals, 6 clearances), Christian Petracca (27 disposals, 6 clearances, 2 goals), Jack Viney (26 disposals, 10 clearances) and Lachie Hunter (33 disposals, 7 marks) all won plenty of ball for the Dees while Kysaiah Pickett (14 disposals, 3 goals) was lively in the forward line. Jack Ziebell (32 disposals, 12 marks), Jy Simpkin (28 disposals, 1 goal) and Bailey Scott (31 disposals, 1 goal) were good for North.
Angus Brayshaw - 3
Jack Viney - 1.5
Christian Petracca - 1.5
St Kilda 8.6.54 def by Carlton 10.13.73
The Blues stormed back to defeat the Saints and extend their current winning streak to seven matches. Nic Newman (35 disposals, 13 marks), Blake Acres (27 disposals, 11 marks, 2 goals) and Zac Fisher (32 disposals) were prolific, while Patrick Cripps (24 disposals, 11 clearances) was important at the coalface. Mason Wood had a career-best 36 disposals and 14 marks for the Saints, while Brad Crouch (31 disposals, 9 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) was also one of their best.
Nic Newman - 3
Mason Wood - 2
Brad Crouch - 0.5
Blake Acres - 0.5
Fremantle 11.8.74 def by Brisbane 11.11.77
The Lions are now right in contention for a top 2 spot on the ladder after fighting hard for a win against Freo in the west. Lachie Neale (25 disposals, 6 tackles, 8 clearances) had a good battle with Hayden Young (29 disposals, 10 tackles, 7 clearances) with Young on top early before Neale fought back in the last quarter to help the Lions over the line. Jarrod Berry (28 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal) played his best game of the year with many of the Lions down on form. Freo had the star players of the match with Luke Jackson (24 disposals, 6 tackles, 44 hitouts, 1 goal) having an enormous game, with Caleb Serong (35 disposals, 7 tackles, 9 clearances) and Andrew Brayshaw (29 disposals, 6 tackles) typically busy.
Luke Jackson - 3
Caleb Serong - 2
Lachie Neale - 0.5
Jarrod Berry - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
