The 2023 AFL season rolls on as we continue with our in-depth Brownlow Medal coverage. Every game, every round, we'll have Brownlow Medal tips, analysis and information, to make your 2023 Brownlow Medal night a profitable one!
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the season, along with our vote allocations using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2023 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page.
2023 AFL Brownlow Round 10 Overview
One of the all-time great performances by Zac Butters on Friday night sees him as the big mover up the Brownlow leaderboard in recent weeks with three best-on-ground efforts in a row. His Brownlow odds are into $13 at Betfair which might offer value given he's in our current top three and in rich form! With Clayton Oliver injuring his hamstring, the door is open for a few others to also come into Brownlow contention. Lachie Neale, Andrew Brayshaw and Zach Merrett are a few of those who are likely to come to the umpire's attention in Round 10!
2023 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 10 Match Analysis
Port Adelaide 11.14.80 def Melbourne 11.10.76
Sir Doug Nicholls round kicked off with a sensational contest between Port Adelaide (Yartapuulti) and Melbourne (Narrm) in wet conditions with the home side edging over the line. Zac Butters played one of the great games, perhaps even the best ever in Port colours, as he racked up 41 disposals, 10 clearances and 2 goals in a clear best-on-ground performance. Connor Rozee (31 disposals, 1 goal) will also be in the votes, while Dan Houston (33 disposals, 1 goal), Jason Horne-Francis (23 disposals, 1 goal) and Willem Drew (22 disposals, 10 tackles) were all valuable contributors. Clayton Oliver (30 disposals, 9 tackles, 8 clearances) and Christian Petracca (22 disposals, 1 goal) had moments of brilliance but may miss the votes in this one.
Zac Butters - 3
Connor Rozee - 2
Dan Houston - 1
North Melbourne 14.6.90 def by Sydney 14.9.93
In a bizarre finish to the match, the Roos exceeded the cap on the number of interchanges allowed, to hand the Swans a gift goal in the final seconds of the match to pinch a victory they desperately needed, but probably didn’t deserve. Luke Parker was a beast for the Swans with 28 disposals, 6 clearances and a goal, while Chad Warner (31 disposals, 6 marks, 7 clearances, 1 goal) was also good. However the Roos had some of the best players on the field with Jy Simpkin (28 disposals, 8 clearances, 2 goals), Harry Sheezel (25 disposals, 2 goals) and Bailey Scott (33 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) all excellent contributors.
Luke Parker - 3
Jy Simpkin - 2
Chad Warner - 0.5
Bailey Scott - 0.5
Western Bulldogs 11.19.85 def Adelaide 5.10.40
The Crows put in a poor showing in Ballarat as the Dogs’ inaccurate kicking was the only thing preventing a blowout. Bailey Smith (37 disposals, 7 tackles) was exceptional, with help from Bailey Dale (36 disposals, 9 marks), Tom Liberatore (33 disposals, 7 clearances) and Caleb Daniel (30 disposals, 6 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal). Rory Laird was busy for the Crows with 34 disposals, 10 tackles and 10 clearances but he didn’t get much help from his teammates.
Bailey Smith - 3
Bailey Dale - 2
Caleb Daniel - 0.5
Tom Liberatore - 0.5
Fremantle 16.10.106 def Geelong 11.11.77
Freo are back in the hunt as they knocked off the reigning premiers in a big win for their season. Andrew Brayshaw (33 disposals, 10 tackles, 7 clearances, 1 goal) and Caleb Serong (28 disposals, 9 tackles, 10 clearances, 1 goal) and Jaegar O’Meara (26 disposals, 6 tackles, 9 clearances) were the chief ball winners as the Cats couldn’t get their hands on the ball. Sean Darcy (43 hitouts, 8 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) was a man mountain, while Lachie Schultz (20 disposals, 8 marks, 8 tackles, 1 goal) was lively up forward.
Andrew Brayshaw - 3
Caleb Serong - 2
Jaegar O’Meara - 1
Brisbane 16.11.107 def Gold Coast 9.10.64
The Lions kicked the last six goals of the match to extend their dominance in the Q clash over Gold Coast. The midfield of Lachie Neale (35 disposals, 8 marks, 10 clearances), Josh Dunkley (29 disposals, 7 marks, 8 tackles, 7 clearances), Hugh McLuggage (30 disposals, 6 marks, 7 tackles, 1 goal) and Will Ashcroft (30 disposals, 7 marks, 6 clearances, 1 goal) were all superb, while Joe Daniher continued his red-hot form with 4 goals, from 16 disposals and 8 marks. Youngster Bailey Humphrey was best for the Suns with 26 disposals and a goal.
Lachie Neale - 3
Josh Dunkley - 2
Hugh McLuggage - 0.5
Joe Daniher - 0.5
Essendon 10.11.71 def Richmond 10.10.70
It was a classic in the Dreamtime at the G match with Essendon pinching victory with a goal in the dying seconds to defeat Richmond. Bombers skipper Zach Merrett was a clear winner of the Yiooken Award for his 39 disposals, 8 marks and 7 tackles. Jordan Ridley (32 disposals, 14 marks) was a rock at half-back, while Andrew McGrath (29 disposals, 12 marks) and Jye Caldwell (31 disposals, 8 marks) were influential. Tim Taranto (33 disposals, 9 clearances, 1 goal) continued his fine season, while Shai Bolton (28 disposals, 7 tackles, 2 goals) and Daniel Rioli (26 disposals, 8 marks) also had strong games.
Zach Merrett - 3
Jordan Ridley - 2
Tim Taranto - 0.5
Shai Bolton - 0.5
Hawthorn 22.10.142 def West Coast 4.2.26
The Hawks annihilated the Eagles in the Harley Reid Cup to sink West Coast to murky depths that they have never been before. Mitch Lewis was a star with 6 goals from 24 disposals and 8 marks in a dominant display. James Sicily (30 disposals, 11 marks), Conor Nash (30 disposals, 8 tackles, 8 clearances) and Josh Weddle (28 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) were among the leading ball winners. Dom Sheed was one of the few Eagles who could hold their head high as he picked up 30 disposals, 8 marks and 2 goals.
Mitch Lewis - 3
James Sicily - 2
Conor Nash - 0.5
Josh Weddle - 0.5
Carlton 7.15.57 def by Collingwood 13.7.85
The Pies led all day to keep the Blues well under control at the MCG on Sunday afternoon. Darcy Moore was superb at centre half-back with a record-equally 10 intercept marks and 25 disposals against the leading forward in the game. Josh Daicos (27 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal), Tom Mitchell (26 disposals, 8 clearances) and Jordan De Goey (27 disposals) were best for the Pies in the middle. Sam Docherty was valuable for Carlton with 34 disposals.
Darcy Moore - 3
Josh Daicos - 2
Tom Mitchell - 0.5
Jordan De Goey - 0.5
GWS Giants 12.8.80 def by St Kilda 13.14.92
An important win for the Saints over the Giants keeps them safely inside the top 8. Jack Sinclair (37 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goal), Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (29 disposals, 10 marks) and Jack Steele (25 disposals, 11 tackles) were important while the return of Max King (4 goals, 11 disposals, 8 marks) was a success. Rowan Marshall was also a beast in the ruck with 24 disposals and 30 hitouts. Brent Daniels (24 disposals, 2 goals), Stephen Coniglio (26 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) and Tom Green (29 disposals, 9 tackles, 9 clearances) were best for the Giants.
Jack Sinclair - 3
Rowan Marshall - 2
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera - 0.5
Brent Daniels - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
