Two of the big matches of the Aussie season unfold in Super Rugby Pacific Round 6 with the Queensland Reds-Crusaders clash in Brisbane and the ACT Brumbies hosting the NSW Waratahs in Canberra. Both home sides are expecting their biggest crowds of the Super Rugby Pacific season.
Australian sides went 0-3 in their match-ups against Kiwi opponents for the second straight week in Round 5. The Reds, Melbourne Rebels and Western Force are hoping to correct that trend.
Let’s take a look at our best bets for Super Rugby Pacific Round 6 action.
2023 Super Rugby Pacific: Round 6 Preview & Betting Tips
Queensland Reds v Crusaders
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Friday March 31st, 7:35pm (AEDT)
The Reds haven’t beaten the Crusaders since the glorious 2011 Super Rugby final in front of a full house at this very ground. That’s 11 straight tussles since without a W. Better Reds sides than this line-up have fallen short.
That said, the Reds backline is as dangerous as any in the comp. It’s the tight five forwards who are below elite and they meet a Crusaders tight five with All Blacks Scott Barrett, Codie Taylor and Joe Moody.
All methods apart from outright yelling and hurling rotten fruit have been tried to lessen the Reds’ penalty prone ways. You have to think it has sunk in this week.
The Reds are 10-point underdogs but expect them to be better than that. They defend at their best with their home fans behind them which is one of the keys to this game.
This is a Red-coloured glasses prediction but the Queenslanders could go really close in this one. Fewer reckless passes and penalties and they are a shot. Patience is what that means because the calm Crusaders are happy to tackle opponents into frustration.
If you follow me to the cliff edge...take Reds to win by 1-12 pts at $4.80 at TAB.
Reds +10.5
$1.87 (4 Units)
Fijian Drua v Melbourne Rebels
HFC Bank Stadium, Suva, Saturday April 1st, 2:35pm (AEDT)
Predicted in preview of the season that the Rebels were heading into the April Fool’s Day massacre in Suva.
The biggest improvers in the comp deserve greater consideration after five rounds but the Fijians fly with their home fans beneath their wings. They’ll have 15,000 raucous Drua fans doing just that in the steamy heat.
The Rebels did a superb job to rally three times from behind to beat the Reds in the last round. They still conceded five tries and the Fijians will be hot on scoring as many in their chaos of running and offloading.
No team kicks less than the Drua. They run and run.
It’s going to be 31 degrees and humid. The Rebels will struggle to keep up in the final 20 minutes.
Drua win by 13+
$3.20 (4 Units)
ACT Brumbies v NSW Waratahs
GIO Stadium, Canberra, Saturday April 1st, 7:35pm (AEDT)
It’s crazy to think that the Brumbies have won 10 straight in this historically close match-up.
There’s feeling between the two sides and always will be. The Brumbies just relish this game and especially with a bigger than normal crowd expected.
The Brumbies have won 19 of their last 23 games at home which shows you how much GIO Stadium is a fortress.
The Brumbies welcome back some rested stars with fullback Tom Wright, halfback Nic White, backrowers Pete Samu and Rob Valetini and prop James Slipper back in action. They have a formidable and reliable look.
The Brumbies give away the fewest penalties and their goalkickers are the most accurate in the comp. They give away close to the fewest turnovers and collect close to the most. Great markers.
The real Waratahs need to stand up because at 1-4 and 11th, they have too.
Having Lalakai Foketi back at inside centre is crucial because perhaps he can unlock centre partner Izaia Perese who just isn’t the destructive runner he was in 2021-22.
The Waratahs need a fast start and some real bang by feeding weapons Max Jorgensen and Mark Nawaqanitawase more.
Can see the Waratahs being in this past the 70th minute but Brumbies win.
Brumbies to win by 1-7
$4.60 (3 Units)
Hurricanes v Western Force
Central Energy Trust Arena, Palmerston North, Sunday April 2nd 1:35pm (AEDT)
The visit to Palmerston North is a rare one for Australian sides and not particularly fruitful.
The Force won a 27-22 decision at the end of last season when the Hurricanes visited Perth to end a one-sided ledger in this contest.
The Force did some shrewd off-season shopping with captain-halfback Gareth Simpson, winger Zach Kibirige and centre Sam Spink all proving their worth out of the English premiership.
This is still the last leg of a long three-game tour of New Zealand and a banana skin.
Hamish Stewart has been reinstated at No.10 for the Force.
The Hurricanes play a high-volume offload game to go with their speed in attack. They have a 40-point look to them in this one and that’s scoring the Force can’t match. The bookies are tipping a 20-point margin or more.
Winger Salesi Rayasi is big try-scoring chance for the Hurricanes.
Hurricanes -20.5
$1.90 (4 Units)
More Super Rugby Pacific Round 6 Betting Tips
Moana Pasifika v Highlanders
Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland, Friday March 31st 5:05pm (AEDT)
Sam Gilbert Anytime Try Scorer - $2 at TAB.com.au
Chiefs v Blues
FMG Stadium, Hamilton, Saturday April 1st, 5:05pm (AEDT)
TIP: Chiefs WIN - $1.80 at Ladbrokes
