The 2023 AFL season has arrived and once again we're back with our in-depth Brownlow Medal coverage. Every game, every round, we'll have Brownlow Medal tips, analysis and information, to make your 2023 Brownlow Medal night a profitable one!
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the season, along with our vote allocations using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
2023 AFL Brownlow Round 1 Overview
An interesting start to the season with several young guns making big statements early in the season! Harry Sheezel, Jason Horne-Francis, Luke Davies-Uniacke and Nick Daicos are just a few of the young stars likely to be in the votes in Round 1, while most of the Brownlow contenders were a little slow to start the season!
2023 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 1 Match Analysis
Richmond 8.10.58 drew with Carlton 8.10.58
What an epic start to the 2023 AFL season with a dramatic draw in front of 90,000 fans at the G. Hopefully that’s a good sign for the season ahead! Brownlow votes are always tricky in drawn matches but Tim Taranto was the dominant midfielder on the ground with 32 disposals and 8 tackles and should pick up the 3. Daniel Rioli was dynamic from half-back for the Tigers with 27 disposals, 7 marks and plenty of run while Toby Nankervis was a big presence with 36 hitouts, 14 disposals and 11 tackles. For the Blues, George Hewett was best with 28 disposals and 8 tackles.
Tim Taranto - 3
Daniel Rioli - 2
Toby Nankervis - 0.5
George Hewett - 0.5
Geelong 16.7.103 def by Collingwood 19.11.125
It was a high-scoring game with plenty of carnage with multiple serious injuries, but the Pies came from behind with the last 8 goals of the game to roll the reigning premiers. They had winners everywhere with Jordan De Goey starring with 25 disposals, 8 marks, and 3 goals. Scott Pendlebury (27 disposals, 8 tackles, 1 goal), Nick Daicos (35 disposals, 7 marks) and Tom Mitchell (21 disposals, 11 clearances, 2 goals) also were great in support.
Jordan De Goey - 3
Scott Pendlebury - 1.5
Nick Daicos - 1.5
North Melbourne 12.15.87 def West Coast 12.10.82
North Melbourne are on the board early in 2023 as the future looks up for the Kangas. Luke Davies-Uniacke is quickly becoming one of the competition’s elite players and is likely to get the three votes for his 32 disposals, 5 tackles, 10 clearances and a goal. Debutant Harry Sheezel was superb with 24 disposals and 9 marks, while Jack Ziebell (26 disposals, 9 marks) and Nick Larkey (6 goals from 9 disposals) were also effective. Luke Shuey (27 disposals, 8 tackles, 1 goal) was best for the Eagles.
Luke Davies-Uniacke - 3
Harry Sheezel - 2
Nick Larkey - 1
Port Adelaide 18.18.126 def Brisbane 11.6.72
The Lions were fancied pre-season but the Power quickly showed they are a contender in 2023 with a big win. Jason Horne-Francis was one of the highest-profile trades of the off-season, but he delivered immediate impact at his new home with 25 disposals, 7 clearances and a goal. Ollie Wines (29 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal), Zak Butters (24 disposals, 8 marks) and Sam Powell-Pepper (21 disposals, 5 tackles, 1 goal) will contend for the minor votes. Daniel Rich was kept busy for the Lions with 26 disposals, 1 goal and over 1,000 metres gained.
Jason Horne-Francis - 3
Ollie Wines - 2
Zak Butters - 1
Melbourne 17.13.115 def Western Bulldogs 9.11.65
The Demons were far too good for the Bulldogs and once again look a force in 2023. While the usual suspects Clayton Oliver (33 disposals, 7 tackles, 8 clearances), Christian Petracca (30 disposals, 8 clearances) and Max Gawn (21 disposals, 21 hitouts, 2 goals) were excellent, they might get topped for the three votes by Kysaiah Pickett who was electric for his 4 goals from 19 disposals and 8 tackles. Unfortunately he also copped a two-week suspension to boot so there won’t be a Brownlow for Kozzi this season! Tom Liberatore (32 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) and Adam Treloar (32 disposals, 1 goal) were best for the Dogs.
Kysaiah Pickett - 3
Max Gawn - 2
Clayton Oliver - 0.5
Christian Petracca - 0.5
Gold Coast 9.7.61 def by Sydney 16.14.110
The Swans didn’t have a Grand Final hangover as they thumped the Suns to start the season. Dane Rampe (25 disposals, 7 marks) made the damp conditions look dry with his interceptions in defence to be one of the Swans best. Chad Warner (30 disposals, 8 tackles), Dylan Stephens (27 disposals, 1 goal) and Jake Lloyd (28 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) were also busy. Jarrod Witts was tireless for the Suns with 25 disposals, 51 hitouts and 10 clearances.
Dane Rampe - 2.5
Chad Warner - 2.5
Jarrod Witts - 1
GWS Giants 15.16.106 def Adelaide 12.18.90
A great win by the Giants, overcoming a 31-point deficit and a string of injuries, to defeat the Crows. Toby Greene led from the front with 19 disposals, 8 marks and 4 goals, with tremendous support from Stephen Coniglio (32 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal), Tom Green (37 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Josh Kelly (26 disposals, 7 marks, 7 clearances) before he was concussed. Josh Rachele was best for the Crows with 18 disposals and 3 goals.
Toby Greene - 2.5
Stephen Coniglio - 2.5
Tom Green - 1
Hawthorn 9.11.65 def by Essendon 19.10.124
It could be a long season for the Hawks as they were no match for the Bombers. Archie Perkins played a breakout game with 20 disposals and 3 goals, while Darcy Parish (37 disposals, 13 clearances) and Zach Merrett (29 disposals, 7 marks) were typically prolific. Will Setterfield (25 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) and Mason Redman (24 disposals, 2 goals) were also good. James Sicily (30 disposals, 15 marks) tried hard for the Hawks.
Archie Perkins - 3
Darcy Parish - 2
Zach Merrett - 0.5
Mason Redman - 0.5
St.Kilda 10.7.67 def Fremantle 7.10.52
The injury-ravaged Saints recorded a remarkable first-up win in the new Ross Lyon era as the Dockers may look back and rue this loss. It’s a tricky game for Brownlow votes with some of the Dockers racking up massive numbers. Brennan Cox (30 disposals, 20 marks) and Luke Ryan (37 disposals, 13 marks) were super at half-back for the Dockers but couldn’t hold the fort in the last quarter. Brad Crouch (30 disposals), Jack Steele (28 disposals) and Jack Sinclair (26 disposals) were excellent for the Saints while Callum Wilkie did a great job of curtailing Nat Fyfe while also picking up 24 disposals for himself.
Brennan Cox - 2
Luke Ryan - 2
Callum WIlkie - 1
Jack Sinclair - 1
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
