There’s less than a week to go until the 2022 Brownlow Medal count after the AFL announced the event would move to this Sunday night (September 18th) to avoid a clash with the Queen’s funeral.
It means the sportsbooks have been busy putting up new Brownlow markets to tempt us! There’s only a limited range of betting markets available at the time of writing, but there's still some value to be found as we take a look at some more Brownlow bets including Leaders after Round 5, Head-to-head bets, Votes Over/Unders and Individual 3 Vote Games.
Other links:
Brownlow Leaderboard & Round-by-round analysis/projections
Brownlow Contenders
Brownlow Team Votes
Brownlow Leaders after Round 5/10
These markets are normally not ones we like to dabble in as there’s a big chance of a tied result which will ruin your odds as dead-heat rules will apply.
However our numbers are a little different to the sportsbooks, so if we back our own analysis, then there’s some value to be found.
For us, Patrick Cripps was a clear star in the first three rounds of the season, as well as Round 6, while Christian Petracca and Lachie Neale are all also chances to poll 9 votes after 5 rounds.
The interesting one is Andrew Brayshaw who is the pretty clear favourite in this market. I admit, we might be a little light on him here in the first few rounds, but there’s cases to be made against him in each of the games he polls votes in. In Round 1, Freo got a narrow win but a couple of Crows players were arguably best on ground. In Round 2 it’s the opposite scenario as Freo lost, but Brayshaw was excellent - does he poll 3 in a losing team? Then in Round 5, Matt Taberner kicked 7 goals which is such a rare feat nowadays that it has to be a strong chance at 3 votes.
There’s enough risk there for Brayshaw against the other three contenders. I think at least one of those three will get to 9 votes, while Brayshaw might be a good chance to miss. Rather than back one and risk a tied result, let’s simply lay Brayshaw in this market at Betfair. If any of the others win, then we win!
And. Brayshaw Lead Rd 5
LAY at $2.50
Brownlow Votes Over/Unders
Marcus Bontempelli over 10.5 votes
A perennial over-poller, Marcus Bontempelli is someone we’ve probably marked harshly over the years due to the fact that the umpires love him so much. So the fact that we have him projected for 14 votes in a market that has a line of 10.5, makes this an instant bet.
It wasn’t the Bont’s best season by any means, but we have him clearly polling in 6 games, with 3 of those good enough for the 3 votes. When he's good, he's very good! He hit a nice patch of form late in the season, and the other Doggies weren’t exactly dominating either, so I’m confident he’ll smash through that line.
Bontempelli o10.5 votes
$1.87
Cam Guthrie under 14.5 votes
I’m a little nervous to take on Cam Guthrie as he’s such a solid player in a team that finished on top of the ladder, but it wasn’t Guthrie’s best season as he battled injury and form. He also had to compete for Brownlow votes with the two most dominant forwards in the competition. I think Jeremy Cameron wins at Geelong and will take votes away from Guthrie. I have Guthrie polling in six games, but two of those are borderline misses, while he was BOG in two of them for a projected total of 10 votes. We have 4 votes to play with so we’ll make it a play.
C Guthrie u14.5 votes
$1.75
Head-to-Head Brownlow Bets
There’s a limited number of Brownlow Head-to-head bets available at the moment, and we may add some more bets to this article as more markets open up.
For now, we’re happy to back Brad Crouch to get the better of Jack Macrae. Crouch has to contend with Jack Steele stealing votes but if he polls well, then he should win this match up. We have Crouch polling 12 votes across fives games with two best-on-grounds, so he should be pretty strong in the counts. We have Macrae potentially polling in six games, but no three votes, and some of those, he may not poll at all, for a projection of just 7 votes. With the 5 vote advantage, happy to side with Crouch.
Brad Crouch > Jack Macrae
$1.72
3 Votes in a Game
There are a couple of sportsbooks offering some markets to bet on the 3 votes result for individual matches. Here’s some of the better bets that we’ve found:
Tim Taranto 3 Votes in Round 3
The Giants landed a comfortable win over the Suns in Round 3 and we had Tim Taranto as a clear best-on-ground with 35 disposals and a goal. Tom Green (28 & 2) and Stephen Coniglio (32) were both very good but the price we’re getting for Taranto is exceptional as we have him as a clear favourite.
Taranto 3 Votes Round 3
$2.10
Justin McInerney 3 Votes in Round 4
The Swans scored a hard-fought win over a determined Roos team in Round 4. Justin McInerney was the stand out with 30 disposals, including 14 in the last quarter, and a crucial goal to get the Swans home. He should poll the three. Typical influencers Callum Mills (28) and Isaac Heeney (17 & 2) will be thereabouts, but the false price in the market is around Jack Ziebell. Yes he kicked five goals after being switched forward, which would've surprised any observer, but ultimately, the Roos lost and Ziebell only had 9 touches for the game. Hardly BOG material. The price on McIneney here is exceptional.
McInerney 3 Votes Round 4
$2.50
Liam Baker 3 Votes in Round 14
We always like to find a roughie to cheer for on Brownlow night and we’re hoping Liam Baker might surprise in Round 14. It was a tough game against Carlton where the Tigers got the win in slippery conditions. Dion Prestia (33) is the overwhelming favourite and we love the “Human Meatball” more than anyone, but he’s not a moral for three here at all. Baker was also influential playing in the midfield with 27 disposals and his class and ball use in the wet may get noticed by the umpires. We couldn’t split the two, so when we saw Baker was priced at $26 at Sportsbet, we just couldn’t resist. Prestia may win, but the price is wrong. Have a nibble.
Baker 3 Votes Round 14
$26
Mitch Duncan 3 Votes in Round 17
The Cats got the better of the Dees in Round 17 and this one looks like a battle between Mitch Duncan (32 & 2), Patrick Dangerfield (31) and Cam Guthrie (28 & 2). The market has Guthrie as the favourite so we think there’s some value in the price of Duncan, while you could also saver Dangerfield if you like.
Duncan 3 Votes Round 17
$3.00
Other 3 Votes Bets
Some other individual game bets you could consider at shorter odds that offer less value are:
Andrew Brayshaw Round 2 - $1.75
Jeremy McGovern Round 4 - $1.75
Tom Lynch Round 7 - $1.60
Callum Mills Round 9 - $1.50
Jack Crisp Round 10 - $1.80
Marcus Bontempelli Round 10 - $1.80
We’ll post more plays in here if we spot them as more Brownlow markets open up in the coming days!
