We’ve hit the business end of Super Rugby Pacific with three Australian teams facing major challenges from Kiwi rivals in the quarter-finals.
The Brumbies are at home in chilly Canberra for a tough one against the Hurricanes, the Queensland Reds are massive underdogs in Christchurch and the NSW Waratahs are only slightly better off in Hamilton.
Where is the value this week? The more units placed on a betting tip, the higher the confidence level.
Super Rugby Quarter Finals Betting Tips
Crusaders v Queensland Reds
Fri, June 3, OrangeTheory Stadium, Christchurch 5.05pm (AEST)
The Reds are 20-point underdogs in this one and have lost their last 10 games when playing the Crusaders.
The only losses that the Reds will be referencing will be the 28-15 loss a week ago on the same slippery turf and last year’s careless 63-28 defeat at Suncorp Stadium.
The Reds hung in last week without ever being a chance of winning. The big pointer...you can’t give the Crusaders a flying 21-3 start and expect to be anything but on the losing side.
The Reds have taken confidence from a 12-7 second half and know they have the patterns to score tries if they hold onto the ball. The Reds are fierce defenders and that’s been whipped up this week by coach Brad Thorn’s Origin-style camp, complete with old videos of big hits, biffo and underdog wins by the Maroons.
Ok. How do the Reds pull off a huge upset? They have to score first, get their big backline trump Jordan Petaia into play to cut the line and be precise with their set piece. And cut down the rubbish kicking into the arms of hungry attackers. Find some grass please.
The Reds bungled an attacking lineout just after half-time last Friday. That just can’t happen. The inclusion of Liam Wright adds an extra lineout target which is good.
The Reds are playing roulette with two of their best, Fraser McReight and Hunter Paisami, on the bench as finishers for a high-energy final 35 minutes. The trouble is the game could be gone before they are on.
The clinical Crusaders have won their past 10 finals games. Amazing. We will know if they’ve got this one won at half-time because they’ve led at the break in all 10 of those wins. Fast start or forget it Reds.
Magician Richie Mo’unga returns for this one. He carved up the Reds with three tries last year, the first from a foolish Queensland attacking fumble in their own quarter.
The Reds will get closer than many people think so take the margin bet.
Reds +20.5
$1.90 (4 Units)
Chiefs v NSW Waratahs
Sat, June 4, FMG Stadium, Hamilton 2.35pm (AEST)
The Chiefs have lost their past four finals games but they do have the comfort of home ground advantage.
The four home teams swept the quarter-finals in 2018 and 2019 when Super Rugby was last at full function so that’s a big pointer. Home ground advantage, home country advantage, matters.
The Waratahs have done a brilliant job to get this far. The win over the Highlanders recently was in NZ but in benign conditions under a roof. This field will be slippery even without rain. That’s NZ.
No Izaia Perese really reduces the Waratahs’ chances. What they do have is a backrow pest deluxe in Charlie Gamble, cool leader Michael Hooper, lineout poacher Jed Holloway, a scrum that is twice as good as 2021, halfback sniper Jake Gordon and try-hungry finisher Mark Nawaqanitawase.
Nawaqanitawase has scored five tries in his past five games so there’s an Anytime Try pointer.
Flyhalf Tane Edmed is just 21. This is a big step up and the redhead can earn kudos if he does.
The Waratahs have stolen 21 lineouts in 2022 and disruption to that key source of Chiefs’ attacking ball must be cranked up to ruffle the Kiwis.
You just have to think the Waratahs have reached their level. The Chiefs have so many weapons and No.8 Pita Gus Sowakula just keeps rampaging for metres.
Beware the blowout in the final 10 minutes. Sudden-death play-offs are not regular games...you push passes when you are chasing for survival. A 10-point margin can blow to 20 in a few quick minutes.
Chiefs 1-12
$3.00 (2 Units)
Blues v Highlanders
Sat, June 4, Eden Park, Auckland 5.05pm (AEST)
You have to rate the spirit in the whole Blues camp after their second-string outfit beat the Waratahs on the bell with a field goal last weekend.
The frontliners are back with all their firepower. That means Beauden Barrett, Rieko Ioane and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck in the backs. Into the pack come skipper Dalton Papalii, Hoskins Sotutu and their henchmen.
The Blues are fresh, on the high of 13 straight wins and are just a class above. A Blues win for sure.
The eighth-placed Highlanders are the worst team to ever make the Super Rugby play-offs. Let’s be honest about their 4-10 record. They’ve lost their last nine games against Kiwi opponents.
They just don’t have the players to hurt the Blues because Aaron Smith can’t wear Nos. 1-15 at once.
The Highlanders lost by 12 and seven points in match-ups earlier in the season and they do rise for a scrap against the Blues but...
Blues -14.5
$1.90 (3 Units)
ACT Brumbies v Hurricanes
Sat, June 4, GIO Stadium, Canberra 7.45pm (AEST)
The Brumbies produced a superb display to beat the Hurricanes 42-25 on this same turf back on May 1. The big difference is that game-breaker Rob Valetini is now missing from the backrow.
He was emblematic of the direct, heavy-hitting authority that earned the Brumbies three wins over Kiwi sides this season. Fellow backrowers Pete Samu, Luke Reimer, Tom Hooper and replacements Jahrome Brown and Rory Scott have to find that bit extra to cover his loss.
Who is ready to bust through brick walls like Valetini?
The Brumbies spent plenty of time improving their ability to affect opposition ruck ball before the season started. It has paid off.
The Brumbies have won nine of their past 11 finals games staged in Canberra so home advantage in the cool capital is real.
The Brumbies’ scrum and lineout can dominate and that would be a huge path to victory.
Tom Banks, Folau Fainga’a, Irae Simone and Scott Sio will put everything into this as if this game is their last in Brumbies’ colours. It will be if they don’t win it. All are departing the Brumbies after sterling service.
Hurricanes backrower Ardie Savea remains a superb gamebreaker.
The Brumbies are good enough to lead at half-time and win.
Forget Line Betting. Just take the win.
Brumbies Win
$1.57 (3 Units)
