Saturday football kicks off with GWS looking to bounce back after a disappointing loss against Richmond last week. The Giants host a young Gold Coast outfit that has put in two impressive performances to start 2022. Can GWS avoid going 0-3? Or will the Suns continue to showcase their improvement this season?
Jack Tobin is here with a full preview and tips for Saturday twilight football, make sure to check out our AFL Tips page where we have coverage for all nine games in Round Three.
GWS vs Gold Coast Betting Tips
Giants Stadium, Saturday 2nd March, 4:35pm AEDT
GWS
Injuries: Jack Buckley, Phil Davis, Brent Daniels, Jacob Hopper, Jacob Lloyd, Connor Stone, Zach Sproule (Out)
The Giants loss against Richmond last weekend was compounded by long term injuries to Phil Davis (hamstring) and Daniel Lloyd (forearm), adding to an already mounting injury list. After being listed as ‘managed’ for last week’s match against Richmond, Jacob Hopper will be out for an indefinite period of time after going in for knee surgery this week.
GWS barely fired a shot against a depleted Richmond outfit last weekend, with their ball movement a glaring issue. The Giants were plus 65 for disposals, but had six less scoring shots than Richmond. Expect to see GWS playing more aggressive football with ball in hand this weekend and take the game on by foot. It’s hard to see a side with GWS’ quality going at 41% efficiency inside 50 two weeks in a row, and if the Giants can improve their efficiency forward of centre they’ll be able to get back to winning ways.
GWS will be looking for their big body midfielders to give them an advantage this weekend. Christian Petracca (41 disposals) and Clayton Oliver (34 disposals) dominated on the inside against the Suns last week, and Tom Green (averaging 32 disposals), Tim Taranto (28) and Callan Ward (25) should be able to provide a big impact in the middle of the ground.
Gold Coast
Injuries: Izak Rankine, Jack Bowes, Ben King, Bodhi Uwland (Out), Lachie Weller, Charlie Constable (Test)
Izak Rankine will miss a second game in a row with a corked quad, while Lachie Weller is set to return to the side after being in health and safety protocols. Charlie Constable is back from a groin injury, but will return through the VFL. Overall the injury list is minimal, but the absences of arguably their two most valuable players King and Rankine hurt the Suns scoring power.
After a Round One win over West Coast, the Suns were competitive against the reigning premiers, going down to the Demons by just thirteen points. Melbourne’s physical midfield proved the difference in the game, as Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver dominated. Touk Miller was at his usual best with 38 disposals, but the Suns are going to have a challenge against more experienced midfields that can take a stranglehold on games with their physicality.
The Gold Coast forward line didn’t function well in Round Two, kicking 10 goals from 60 inside 50’s. Jack Lukosius, Mabior Chol, Ben Ainsworth, Sam Flanders and Alex Sexton failed to make an impact. Chol, Flanders and Sexton had thirteen goals and one disposal between them. Ben King and Sam Day have been mainstays of the Suns forward line over the last few years, and they’ve struggled to adjust without them.
Match Prediction
The Giants will be desperate for a response after their showing last weekend, and they’ve got a golden opportunity for the at home against the Suns. GWS have won nine of the last ten games against the Gold Coast, by an average margin of 63 points. The Suns have never won at Giants stadium, with an 0-5 record at GWS’ home ground.
It’s difficult to see the Suns being able to kick a winning score with the way their forward line is set up, and the Giants’ experienced bodies are going to cause Gold Coast a lot of issues. Across the last three seasons the Giants are 15-5 at Giants Stadium, and with their first home game for the season, there’s a perfect opportunity for GWS to get on the board in season 2022. This clash won’t be as one sided as it has been between these two sides, but the Giants still have enough to cover the line in this fixture.
GWS -8.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Prop Bets
Noah Anderson has had an excellent start to 2022, with a big increase in his centre bounce attendances in the first two games this season. After averaging 47% CBAs in 2021, Anderson has had CBAs of 74% and 81% in Round One and Round Two, for 23 and 25 disposal performances. Anderson has picked up where he left off at the end of last season, picking up 30, 25 and 28 disposals in his last three games of 2021. Remarkably, he only had CBA percentages of only 43%, 38% and 53% in those three games. Anderson is getting a bigger role in 2022, and it’s seeing an increase in his disposals.
Noah Anderson 25+ Disposals ($1.82 with Ladbrokes)
Tom Green has had a red hot start to this season, with 31 and 34 disposal performances across the first two games of the year. Green has been given a bigger role in the Giants midfield, and being deployed as the secondary ruckman has given him even more opportunities to rack up the footy. After seeing the damage Melbourne’s big body midfielders did last week, Green will have an excellent opportunity to continue his great form.
Tom Green 30+ Disposals ($1.96 with Ladbrokes)
Josh Kelly kicked two goals last week against Richmond and interestingly, he has goal kicking form against Gold Coast. Kelly has kicked nine goals in his last six games against the Suns, with goal returns of 3, 2, 2, 1, 1 and 0. Kelly has been deployed deep forward at times this season by Leon Cameron, providing excellent value in the 2+ goal market.
Josh Kelly 2+ Goals ($5 with Ladbrokes)
