We’ve got a full slate of games for Week 15 of the NFL regular season, with some tremendous games scheduled for Monday morning. We kick things off with a seven-game early window, with the pick of these games being the Texans hosting the Dolphins in a big AFC matchup. The five-game late window is where the slate gets really interesting, with the Colts and Broncos playing in a massive AFC matchup with huge playoff implications, the Steelers taking on the Eagles in a game between two of the best teams in the NFL, and finally the biggest game of the week, as the Bills head to Detroit to take on the Lions, in what many are calling a Super Bowl preview. A massive slate of games for week 15.
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NFL 2024-25 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 15
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson - $18,200
Despite Josh Allen’s otherworldly performances, the past two weeks, Lamar Jackson remains the QB1 in fantasy this season. This week, Lamar and the Ravens take on a Giants team that is the worst team in the league with a bullet and barring Lamar and the starters getting a super early shower, the Ravens QB should be in for a huge game this week. The Giants defence is rated 28th against the pass according to DVOA, and there has been a lot of chatter about using Lamar’s legs more heading towards the playoffs. Whilst the Giants are middle-of-the-pack against quarterbacks in fantasy, I expect Lamar to come out of the bye and put on a clinic here.
Tua Tagovailoa - $15,020
Don’t look now, but Tua has quietly been putting up one of the best fantasy runs in the second half of this season. Since week 8, Tua has ranked fourth in touchdown passes, second in passer rating and highly accurate throw rate, and seventh in CPOE. This week, he takes on a Texans defence that can be thrown on, as they have allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game, sixth-most passing touchdowns, and the 13th-highest yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. This game could turn into a track meet, and I like Tua to have another big game.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry - $17,860
The King has cut off his dreads, and much like Samson many believe that the strength of Derrick Henry is now gone. I’m not buying it and love the King in this spot against a Giants run defence that has leaked like a sieve. The Giants have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game this season, at the second-highest yards per carry in the league. With the Ravens currently listed as whopping 16-point favourites on the road, it is highly expected that the Ravens will be playing from the front in this one. Game script would indicate Henry will get plenty of work, and even if he is given an early rest, he should cause enough destruction against a banged-up Giants front 7 to put together a great score.
Rico Dowdle - $12,870
Dowdle’s best form all year just so happens to coincide with a smash matchup this week, to make him my favourite running back play at price. Every way you slice it, the Panthers have been absolutely destroyed by opposing running backs this season, and with a tight game expected Rico Dowdle should get enough volume in this game to put up a big score for his owners. Since week 9, the Panthers have allowed the most rushing yards per game, fourth-highest explosive run rate, and the second-highest yards after contact per attempt. Since week 9, Dowdle ranks ninth in explosive run rate, and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. Get on board.
Isaiah Davis - $8,980
If Breece Hall is active, Davis is no longer a play, but with the Jets season over and Hall banged up, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sit for the rest of the season. Davis showed last week that without Hall, he can play a vital role in this Jets offense. Whilst it was good to see Davis get 10 carries for 40 yards and a touchdown, the 6 targets in the passing game are what made me sit up and take notice. The Jags have given up the second-most points per game to opposing running backs this season, and with a tight game expected, Davis should once again get plenty of touches and put up decent RB2 numbers.
Wide Receivers
Courtland Sutton - $13,580
Sutton has been on a tear in the second half of this season. Since week 8, Sutton has commanded a 26.8% target share, a 32% first-read share, 3.09 yards per route run, and a 44.4% air-yard share, whilst averaging 94.8 receiving yards per game and 1.5 redzone targets per game. This week, he takes on a Colts defence that runs a single-high safety at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Against single-high, Sutton commands a massive 30% target share, 38.4% first-read share, and a massive 4.3 YPRR. Big game in store this week for the number 1 receiver at the Broncos.
Garrett Wilson - $12,400
Wilson gets a great matchup this week, as the Jets take on a poor Jags secondary, who defend at the seventh-highest rate of single-high in the NFL. Against single-high, Wilson takes over this offense, commanding a 29.8% target share, a 37.9% first-read share, and 2.06 YPRR. In the second half of the season, the Jags have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game, and the seventh-most receiving yards per game to opposing perimeter wide receivers. With the Jets offense opening up last week, expect another big game from Wilson.
Khalil Shakir - $12,280
Shakir and the Bills get to take on the Lions this week in possibly the game of the season. The concern with Shakir is the returns of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, but I still really like Shakir in this matchup. This season, the Lions have conceded the second-most receiving yards per game, and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers. Shakir excels against single-high, which the Lions deploy at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, commanding a 22.3% target share, a 27.5% first-read share, and 2.42 YPRR. Gotta have someone in this game on your team, and Shakir represents terrific value.
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith - $11,100
Smith continues to impress at the tight end position for the Dolphins, and he presents as a nice stack with Tua Tagovailoa this week. Whilst the Texans have been solid against tight ends for most of the season, I’m expecting points this week in Houston, and Smith continues to get redzone looks for the Dolphins. I’m not convinced Smith will be value without a touchdown, however with 9 redzone targets in his last 7 games played, Smith is a great chance at another TD this week, which would put him squarely in position for a top 3 tight end position in this slate.
Mark Andrews - $8,860
Andrews has had a couple of quiet games in the last 8 weeks, however if you take those two games out, he has averaged a very respectable 17.3 points per game. Since week 5 when Andrews was back to being fully fit, he has 10 redzone targets, whilst commanding a 15.5% target share, 16% first-read share, and 2.35 YPRR. Taking on a Giants defence that runs primarily in single-high, Andrews should carve up this defence, with all of his metrics increasing against those defensive looks.
D/ST
Baltimore Ravens - $6,570
The Ravens take on the Giants this week, and that is about all you need to know. But I’ll give you some more info just to convince you. The Ravens have the third most sacks on the season, whilst the Giants have conceded the sixth most sacks this season. The one concern for the Ravens is that they have only created 11 turnovers this season, the sixth least in the NFL. Smells like some positive regression to me, especially considering the Giants have given up the tenth most turnovers and are starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback.
Denver Broncos - $6,070
The Broncos have an interesting matchup this week against the Colts, and I’m slightly concerned it turns into a bit of a track meet with both teams desperate for a win to boost their playoff chances, however you can’t ignore the run this Broncos defensive unit has been on. The Broncos have three straight games of 10+ points for their D/ST units, they currently have the most sacks of any team in the NFL, and the 8th most takeaways in the league. Meanwhile, the Colts have given the ball away 20 times this year, good for the 6th most in the league.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
