Week 14 is the final bye week in the NFL, with 6 teams on the bye, leaving us with 10 games for our Monday morning slate of Draftstars. We kick off with 7 games in the early window, highlighted by a couple of divisional matchups, with the Browns travelling to the Steelers, the Jags taking on the Titans, and the Jets going down to Florida to take on the Dolphins. The three-game late window is highlighted by a massive clash between the Bills and Rams in LA, whilst the Cardinals will look for revenge, hosting the Seahawks after losing to them in week 12.
As always, Draftstars has a $25,000 contest, with a $2,480 first prize. There are plenty of other contests for everyone to get involved, no matter your budget.
NFL 2024-25 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 14
Quarterbacks
Josh Alen - $18,350
Allen continues to get it done both from a fantasy output, and on the field in real life, as the Bills quarterback now sits as the firm favourite in MVP betting. In fantasy, Allen has been a picture of consistency, with seven straight games of 20+ points, and only two games all season of scores under 10. This week, Allen and the Bills head west to take on the Rams in perfect conditions indoors at SoFi Stadium, against a defence that hasn’t been able to shut opposing QBs down. Allen will continue to get the job done this week and post his eighth straight 20+ point outing in fantasy.
Sam Darnold - $14,260
Darnold continues to fly under the fantasy radar at quarterback and is an excellent selection this week if looking to save some money from a more premium option like Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts. Darnold has, like Allen, only scored under 10 points twice this season, whilst scoring between 17 and 23 on 9 occasions. He is remarkably consistent, and this week gets a Falcons defence that has struggled against the pass this season. Since week 8, the Falcons have allowed the third-highest passer rating, fourth most passing touchdowns, tenth most passing yards, and tenth highest CPOE.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley - $18,840
It’s hard not to select Barkley each and every week in fantasy, but this week is definitely not one to leave the Eagles’ running back on the sideline. This week, the Eagles are 13.5-point home favourites over the Carolina Panthers, indicating the game script will very much lend itself to the Eagles leading big, and leading early. This will increase the likelihood of the Eagles leaning on Barkley, who is pushing hard at a possible MVP, and also the NFL records in rushing yards and scrimmage yards for a season. Against the Panthers 31st ranked running defence according to DVOA and EPA, Barkley should smash.
Isaac Guerendo - $10,390
With both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on IR, rookie running back Isaac Guerendo takes over as the RB1 at the 49ers moving forward. Whilst I’m not convinced Guerendo will get the touches Mason was getting earlier in the season when CMC was out, he still should be the clear workhorse in this back field. The 49ers should lean more heavily on their run game this week, as they take on the run funnel defence of the Bears, who since week 8 have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest explosive rush rate, the second-highest yards per carry to zone runs, and the seventh-highest rushing success rate to zone runs, which Guerendo runs at a higher than 75% clip.
Braelon Allen - $9,980
Another rookie who may get his chance to take over as the RB1 of his team this week is Jets running back, Braelon Allen. With the Jets’ clear RB1 Breece Hall doubtful to take the field this week against the Dolphins, Allen is a great chance at exceeding his price this week for owners. I’m not as confident in Allen as I am in Guerendo, with the Jets 6-point underdogs on the road indicating they will be chasing during this game. If that’s the case, Allen won’t be utilized enough to warrant a selection. However, if the Jets can get ahead, Allen should be ridden heavily by the Jets play callers. A touchdown will make this selection worthwhile, and Allen has had decent redzone equity all year.
Wide Receivers
Calvin Ridley - $11,510
Ridley revenge game is upon us, and I love the former Jag to torment his former team in this AFC South rivalry game. Since the return of Will Levis, Ridley has earnt a 23.3% target share, 46.4% air-yard share, a 28.9% first-read share, and 2.24 yards per route run (YPRR). The Jags defence has moved back to a far more single-high, man coverage defensive unit. Against these looks, Ridley has seen his target share rise to 25.5%, his first-read share bump to 29.7%, and 2.8 YPRR. Since week 8, they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game, and ninth-most fantasy points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Jerry Jeudy - $10,940
Hate chasing the points here, but it’s hard not to get on Jeudy at this price with his obvious upside. Since week 8, Jeudy has ranked as the WR3 in fantasy in the NFL, whilst commanding a 21.9% target share, a 24.1% first-read share, and 2.84 YPRR, with these numbers all jumping against single high, which the Steelers run at the highest rate in the league. Since week 8, the Steelers have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game, and 13th-most points per target to perimeter wide receivers. Huge upside, however, against the Steelers his floor isn’t as high as some more expensive options at wide receiver this week.
DeVonta Smith - $10,170
Smith could be the biggest boom or bust wide receiver option this week, as he comes back from a hamstring injury that has held him out since week 12. Wide receivers coming back from hamstring injuries tend to get going slowly, but this selection is based more on the Eagles’ matchup this week, and the loss of tight end Dallas Goedert for the Eagles. With A.J. Brown likely to matchup against Jaycee Horn, Smith will be free to take on the lesser-known Panther defensive backs like Mike Jackson. The important thing though, in games with no Goedert this season, Smith averages 18.2 points per game when he is targeted more than twice. He should be targeted plenty here and has great upside for the price.
Tight Ends
Brock Bowers - $13,430
Really don’t need to say much about the rookie phenom Brock Bowers that hasn’t already been said. If you’ve got the money for an elite tight end, Bowers is your man. In the past three weeks, Bowers has averaged over 13 targets per game, and last week with Aidan O’Connell back had 10 receptions of 14 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown. Bowers gets another smash matchup this week against the Buccaneers, who have given up the fourth-most yards and seventh-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. Pick the kid with confidence.
Grant Calcaterra - $5,730
Calcaterra jumps in on the Eagles stack this week, as the 3rd year tight end once again takes over as the TE1 for the Eagles with Dallas Goedert missing this week. In games where Goedert has missed, or been knocked out early on in the game, Calcaterra has averaged 3.25 receptions and 40 yards per game, however he had one game with only one catch and 5 yards which really knocks down the average. This week, he should have success against a Panthers’ defence that has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
D/ST
Philadelphia Eagles - $6,670
Why not finish the stack this week with the Eagles defence, who should dominate the Panthers at home this week. The Eagles have the sixth-most sacks of any team in the NFL this season, and despite the Panthers offensive line showing improvement this year, Bryce Young will surely be under duress during this game. The Eagles haven’t managed to turn the ball over as often as they’d like, but I get the feeling the Panthers may help them out with their numbers, and multiple turnovers are on the way this Sunday in Philly.
Arizona Cardinals - $5,030
The Cardinals defence is being underrated here in my opinion. Much like the Eagles, they are only around league average in takeaways, however the Seahawks have been a turnover machine this season, giving the ball away 19 times, the fifth-most in the league. The Cardinals should also get to Geno Smith in this matchup, with the Seahawks giving up the seventh-most sacks in the league, whilst the Cardinals are getting to the quarterback at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. Should be a low scoring game, and I love the Cardinals D/ST unit here.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
