Week 12 of the NFL season has 6 teams on the bye, meaning our Monday morning slate is a little thinner than usual, with a 10-game slate to sink our teeth into. In the morning window we have 7 games, which will be highlighted by the Lions/Colts clash, which currently has a total set at over/under 50 points. The 3-game late window is where the bigger games are, with two of the three games totalled at 47.5 or more, with some cracking games scheduled, including the Broncos @ Raiders, Cardinals @ Seahawks, and 49ers @ Packers. A cracking three game late window.
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NFL 2024-25 Daily Fantasy Tips: Week 12
Quarterbacks
Kyler Murray - $14,910
Murray has been a boom/bust quarterback in fantasy this season, with four scores of 25+, and four scores under 15. It’s therefore important to pick Murray on a good week, and I think he’s going to have one of those in week 12. The Seahawks aren’t a terrible defence against opposing quarterbacks in fantasy, slightly below average, but they are susceptible to conceding multiple passing touchdowns, as well as yardage by opposing QBs. With Murray’s scores against NFC West rivals going 28.5, and 25.1, I like Murray to step up again here in a massive game in the NFC West.
Bo Nix - $14,410
We go back to the well with the rookie quarterback, after a massive performance last week saw Bo Nix score his highest total of the season (31.8). Whilst we can’t expect that sort of production from him again, he does get another nice matchup here against the Raiders, albeit on the road. In week 5 against the Raiders, Nix had his breakout fantasy game, scoring 23.14 points on 206 yards passing, 9 rushing yards, and 3 total touchdowns. The Raiders have allowed the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the eighth-highest passer rating, and ninth highest CPOE. Another big week ahead for the rookie.
Running Backs
De’Von Achane - $16,130
Achane has continued his fine form with Tagovailoa under center this season, with his splits between Tua starting and Tyler Huntley quite remarkable. He also has the RB1 position locked down in a team that has plenty of options in the backfield, as shown by his 58 touches over the past three weeks, compared to Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright, who have just 17 each. This week, he gets a Patriots defence that has been shredded by running backs this season, ranking 28th in DVOA versus the run, whilst allowing the tenth-most points to running backs. Lock him in as a top 5 running back this week.
Rachaad White - $10,210
White has really stepped up his play since week 7, averaging 12.3 touches and 70.8 total yards per game in that span, good enough for RB7 in the league. His usage hasn’t really increased either, showing it is more down to how efficiently he is using those touches, which is great to see. Among the 53 qualifying running backs, White ranks 17th in yards after contact per attempt, and 27th in missed tackles forced. A great matchup this week awaits, as the Bucs take on the Giants who since week 6 have allowed the highest explosive run rate, the most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fifth-highest yards per carry to zone runs.
Tony Pollard - $9,680
This is a play purely on usage, and Pollard’s usage will be dictated by whether or not Tyjae Spears lines up for the Titans this week. In games without Spears, Pollard’s snap count basically doubles, and with Spears questionable after not practicing on Thursday, there’s a good chance he will be out this week. The Texans are far from a terrible team against the run, so there is a chance that this could be a rough pick, but at the price and with the chance of Pollard being a huge point of difference, he is someone to consider this week in teams. Needs a touchdown and Spears to be out to be considered.
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown - $15,240
At some point I guess I’ve got to give this guy his dues. With eight straight games of at least one touchdown, ARSB and this Lions offense looks about as hard to stop as any unit in the NFL this season. The Lions take on the Colts this week, who play predominately in zone coverage defensively. This is great for Amon-Ra, who thrives against zone coverage. With a high total set (50) for this game, another touchdown or two for the Lions wideout is a serious possibility, and if that happens again, another huge score is on the cards.
Terry McLaurin - $13,870
Scary Terry had a down week last week, however I believe he’s in a good spot for a bounce back here. The Commanders take on NFC East rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, and it’s obvious to see that the Cowboys defence is in disarray right now. Since week 6, the Cowboys have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game, and seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. With the Commanders’ offense having a few slow games in a row, I expect a nice get right spot here for them, and for their number 1 receiver.
Jameson Williams - $10,160
The Detroit Lions pair of St. Brown and Williams is once again a good option to stack this week, after they both smashed the Jags’ secondary last weekend. We recommended Williams last week for a tick under $9,000, and despite going up close to $1,500 in a week, he’s still a great value play with high upside this week. Since week 9, the Colts have run two-high safeties at the ninth-highest clip in the NFL. Against two-high, Williams’ numbers soar, as he commands a 22.7% target share, 30.8% first-read share, and 2.96 yards per route run, all much higher than his numbers against other defensive formations. Huge ceiling, particularly with this insane offense.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce - $14,040
Kelce was completely shut down last week by the Bills, and I’ve got a feeling he won’t have forgotten that quickly. Not only is there the motivation of righting his play from last week, but he gets the best medicine a tight end could hope for, taking on the worst defence in the NFL in the Carolina Panthers. Not only are they the worst defence, but they also concede the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in the league. Expect Kelce to bounce back this week, posting numbers far more synonymous with his prior three-week production of 32 receptions for 254 yads and an average of 23.5 points per game.
Ja’Tavion Sanders - $5,610
The rookie Panthers tight end is about to go mano-e-mano with the best tight end in the NFL, and I’m here for it. Sanders has come on strongly in the second half of the season, and if you take away his whiff in week 9 against the Broncos, Sanders has averaged a very respectable 10.9 points per game over the past 5 weeks. Sanders gets a great matchup this week, taking on a Chiefs outfit that have allowed the mot receiving yards per game, and fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. They also defend at a high percentage of two-high, where Sanders thrives with 2.65 yards per route run, and a 28% targets per route run.
D/ST
Houston Texans - $6,720
The Texans defence has been on another level the last two weeks, and whilst some negative regression is sure to hit, they have another great chance at some big points this week. For starters, the Texans are at home, which is always a positive. Next, they are taking on a Titans’ offense that gives away the third most turnovers in the league. They’ve also allowed their quarterback to be sacked 33 times this season, good for the fifth most in the NFL. If Will Anderson is back, the Texans defence should have a field day against a poor offensive line, and an even poorer quarterback at protecting the ball.
Washington Commanders - $6,350
This is a pure fade of the Cowboys’ offense, which is trending towards being the worst in the NFL. Added to the fact they can’t score points, they are also conceding the most turnovers in the NFL and allowing their quarterback to get sacked at the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. If the Commanders can get out to a lead, I think we see a very similar situation to last week, where the Texans were able to just swarm Cooper Rush who was made to throw on every play, given the deficit the Cowboys faced. The Texans had 19 points on D/ST last week, so this is the upside for the Commanders.
Suggested Draftstars Lineup
