Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, July 20th.
It's a solid off-season nine-race card as we slowly edge closer toward the Spring. The track is currently a Soft 6 with the rail in the true position.
We've previewed every race on the card below!
Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, July 20th
Best Bet: Race 2 - (4) Moor Wanted E/W
Best Value Bet: Race 9 - (3) Parwan Prince
Good race to kick things off! There's two I'll be backing. (1) Pacodali makes his stable debut for Lindsay Smith today and his stable has been on fire since starting up in Victoria. The horse is in good form anyway with a win at Caulfield two starts back and a 2nd placing at Sandown last start, so if he takes any improvement from the Smith regime then he'll prove very hard to beat in this. He has all the weight to carry but he gets a useful claim. He's won two from three at this track and distance so he's certainly one I'll be backing at $5.50. (4) Masculino is favourite and deservedly so. He won well tow starts back and just found the front a bit too early when he ran 2nd over track and distance last start. He had to sit outside the leader who was gone on the turn, so was left with no option but to kick for home. He was only run down late and under today's race conditions, he gets the weight claim for the apprentice so carries just 53.5kg. Looks well placed. Backing both.
Also backing: (1) Pacodali $5.50
This is a competitive little race and there's only one horse that stands out to me as a bet here and that's (4) Moor Wanted at $7.00. I think he's a great each way bet at the price. He's had had three starts at the track, resulting in a win and two 2nds, beaten 0.3L and 0.4L. He gets similar conditions to last start and carries basically the same weight, and probably starts from a better draw today. I think there's a couple of queries about those currently above him in the market, so $7.00 looks a solid each way play. (2) Sheriff John Stone should go close third up from a spell today. He's never missed the money from four starts when third up. (3) Sirius Suspect is racing well but is yet to place from four attempts on soft ground, while (6) I'm Telling Ya has yet to run a place from three starts at the track and distance.
Value: (2) Sheriff John Stone $9.00
I've liked the two runs of (8) Presently this preparation. She's finished 2nd on both occasions but she looks suited stepping up to 1800m today. She came from a long way off the pace at Sandown last start and will be suited by the big straight at Flemington. Clearly has no issues with the ground so appears hard to beat. One at value might be one of the Godolphin runners, (10) Farlingaye. She worked home strongly over 1400m on debut at Bendigo. She's bred to get over much further than that and I think she'll improve today at double figure odds. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott send (1) Echo Lad down from Sydney after he won over the mile last start. Whenever they send runners down you have to take note and he's likely to lead so I wouldn't rule him out at all.
Value: (10) Farlingaye $13
Another competitive affair. (3) Lord Belvedere draws poorly in barrier 12 but on his form this prep, he goes on top. He won first up from 39 weeks off the track at Cranbourne and followed that with the best overall sectionals in defeat in Sydney behind So You Win. He's third up today and he's two from three when third up previously. The only query is the step up from 1800m to 2500m but this stable are capable of pulling that off. (1) High Bridge is ready to win and they've clearly sent him south in search of firm ground, but they're unlikely to get it. He's been knocking on the door for the past three starts now and he's plenty fit enough to win this. (6) The Statesman was given no hope with the ride last start but he can improve third up. Whether he's got the fitness base yet to win is the query, given he is 1600m up to 2000m up to 2500m after a 37 week spell.
Also backing: (1) High Bridge $5.00
Another race with several genuine winning chances. I'm sticking with (8) El Questro who was a horror watch last start in defeat. She handed up from the inside and was then held up until the 150m mark. SHe drove hard late but the bird had flown. Prior to that her first two wins this prep were very good and I'm happy to butter up again today and give her another chance. We're getting $5.00 which is a more than acceptable price. (4) Miss Mandito was the horse that beat El Questro last start and she looks the value here at $12. She also finished behind (6) Special Diva two starts back and she then won her next start so the form looks good. Special Diva comes into this having finally got another win. She had been luckless all preparation until her past two starts so it's little surprise to see her run well in those. My query here is her poor record at Flemington but she's obviously going well enough to win. (9) Rat With Goldtooth is third up today and looks ready to win. Drops in weight with Georgina Cartwright's claim and if she can ride her well from the awkward gate, I suspect she'll be very competitive. (15) Vitani is a horse to follow - perhaps wait for her next start when she's third up.
Value: (4) Miss Mandito $12
It's very, very rare that I trust Ballarat Synthetic form (or any synthetic form, for that matter) for Saturday metropolitan races but the win of (7) Killavally on debut was arrogant. He trotted in by 8L and a horse he beat by 11.5L then came out and won by 4.5L at Murtoa. Williams goes on today and he's drawn well so as long as he can repeat his debut effort on turf, he should be winning this. (6) Twilight Run was an eye-catcher first up at Caulfield. He was held up back in the field, ducked back to the rails and found the line nicely to run 2nd. Only going to improve with the step up in distance and should be hitting the line hard. (3) Howlowcanyougo produced a huge effort to win in Adelaide last start, keeping his undefeated record intact. He's not hopeless at all.
I think the best horse in this race could well be (4) My Pendant but I just fear the 1200m is going to be a touch sharp for her first up from a spell. Last time we saw her she started $5.00 in a race quinella'd by Amphitrite and Verry Elleegant, so that's the level of ability she possesses. (1) Sylvia's Mother started $1.50 first up in Sydney but wasn't ridden particularly well and was also a touch disappointing. I'll forgive her for that and give her another go today. She's undefeated second up from a spell and she was very heavily backed first up so it could be worth backing her again. (6) Pinyin is yet to miss a placing from eight career starts and should have finished closer last start. Craig Williams replaces Teo Nugent today so she gets a big jockey change and she'll be right in the finish.
(1) Sylvia's Mother
$2.25
(3) Reykjavik was dominant last start over this track and distance in Listed company, so he should prove hard to beat again today. There's a couple of little queries - firstly he rises 5kg in the weights and secondly, he races on soft ground today, on which he's only won once before. I'm going to stick with him because the stable is absolutely flying and on the strength of last start, he looks as if he can defy those negatives to win again. (4) Al Galayel probably wants it firmer but I'd expect improvement from him today. He pulled up lame first up but he's had five weeks off and he's got a good second up record. (5) Guizot drops back to the mile and gets his preferred soft ground so he has claims, while (1) Another Coldie is worth throwing in numbers at huge odds fourth up from a spell.
If (11) Usain Bowler is tuned up for this, he'll be awfully hard to hold out. His best career win came second up last prep when he charged home to win over the 1200m here. The query is all three career wins have been over 1200m so the 1000m could be a bit sharp but I think he gets his chance to win again here. (3) Parwan Prince looks a big price at $26. Throw him in your numbers. He's had two runs back from a spell this time in. First up he won over this track and distance and last start he was run down late to be beaten half-a-length over the 1100m. Third up, back in trip, looks a good each way chance. (9) Wagner was given one of the more confusing rides last start in Sydney when he was very well backed. He's got the quality to win this and Williams takes the ride. (2) Crack The Code is also first up and is a winner of four of her six starts so has obvious claims.
Value: (3) Parwan Prince $26
