Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Tuesday, November 5th.
It's the first Tuesday in November which means it's 2019 Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington! 'The Race That Stops The Nation' headlines a huge 10-race card at headquarters, and we've previewed every race of the meeting below.
The track is rated a Soft 6 with the rail out 3m for the day.
Flemington Preview & Betting Tips: 2019 Melbourne Cup Day
Best Bet: Race 3 - (2) One More Try E/W
Best Value Bet: Race 5 - (5) Santorini Summer
Nothing like kicking off Cup day with a field mostly full of unraced two-year-olds. I suspect the usual suspects will be the ones to follow here, in Hayes/Hayes/Dabernig, Maher/Eustace and even Ellerton/Zahra. If betting at all, I'd have something small on (2) Aryaaf at $8.50 and (13) Thala at $10. The Maher/Eustace pair (7) Marchena and (8) Muntaseera will be around the mark but no need to get too involved this early with no form to go off.
I've landed on the favourite (7) Phaistos here but I think the $3.20 on offer is about as low as I'd want to go. He's undefeated first up from a spell and he worked through his grades nicely last prep with three wins from six starts. First up at 1400m tells me they have him ready and tuned up, along with the strong booking of Craig Williams. He's down on the minimum weight and he's going to appreciate the soft ground as he's got three wins and two placings from six starts on rain-affected going, which is what really attracts me to him. (3) Bravo Tango is ticking along nicely and worked home well once again last start. He was never a hope of running down Usain Bowler who put them to the sword from on the speed, while Bravo Tango was further back in the field. He's won two of his three starts on wet ground so is another that will be suited. (1) William Thomas was asked to do way too much last start. Dunn thought he was on Chautauqua. He's replaced by D Oliver who is absolutely flying and the step up to 1400m is ideal. Carrying 3kg more than any other runner is what I suspect might bring him undone.
I've made (2) One More Try my best bet of the day here at each way odds. I couldn't believe my eyes when I saw they opened her around $9.00+ and I still think $6.50 is a solid each way bet. She's absolutely flying! First up at 1400m she chased home the likes of Fabric and Haut Brion Her, running 3rd at $81, and last start she was the only horse to break 12 seconds for her final 200m. She was beaten 1.3L by Spanish Reef in G3 company and that form is good because Spanish Reef then came out and ran 3rd in G1 company on Derby Day. She's never finished out of the top two from three starts when third up, she draws barrier 1 so will sit much further forward in the run, Damien Oliver takes over from Jamie Kah and she's four times before on wet ground. I think she's the bet of the day at the odds. (10) Seewhatshebrings is probably worth saving on at $5.00. She opened her campaign with two wins before running home strongly to be beaten a nose in G3 company by Amangiri at The Valley last start. She's a two-time winner on soft ground, draws right in the middle of the pack and the Magic Man Joao Moreira takes the ride. She'll be right in the finish again with even luck. I think the value is (13) Extreme Pride at $11. She's won her past four starts now and already one horse has come out of her last race and won its next start. Drawn soft, Williams on, handles the wet, stable is flying. The Waller pair (6) Romani Girl and (7) Sure Knee deserve respect.
Value: (13) Extreme Pride $11
(2) One More Try E/W
$6.50
This is the banker of the day. (3) Shared Ambition has had two starts in Australia for two very impressive victories. He didn't have much go his way last start but when he found clear running he exploded away and put his rivals to bed in a matter of strides. The step up to 2800m poses no problem and he just has to repeat his past two starts to be winning again. He's an exciting stayer. If the track is still in the soft range, it could be worth throwing in (1) Big Blue who loves the wet ground, is third up from a spell and gets Ryan Moore aboard. He's won his past two third up runs.
(3) Shared Ambition
$1.80
A field of 18 set to do battle down the straight, the stuff of Cup Week nightmares! But there's three I'm quite interested in backing. (3) Can't Be Done returns from a spell for his second racing preparation. He had five starts for two wins and two placings in his debut campaign and I'm wary of a horse like him in a form stable like Danny O'Brien's. He's never raced over 1000m and he may be looking for a touch longer but I won't underestimate him. (4) Garner is a horse I backed two starts ago at Caulfield and his effort to run down Sartorial Splendour was outstanding. He then went back to Adelaide and seemingly bumped into what could be a very good horse in Xilong. He sat three-wide without cover throughout that race and although he was beaten 5L, I think he can bounce back today. He's a talented horse in his own right and the drop back to 1000m, along with the wide draw, could prove beneficial. (5) Santorini Summer actually beat Garner last time we saw her, which was back in July. Garner went on to win his next two starts following that defeat so she might be pretty good. And obviously if I consider him a chance in this then she must also be rated highly. Her only other start was a 0.2L defeat on debut. She returns from a spell here and Craig Williams is booked for Mark Kavanagh which catches the eye. I don't think it's any coincidence that we see her line up first up here. I'm expecting a big run and she goes on top. Can back all three here at $8.00, $9.50 and $7.00 respectively.
Value: (3) Can't Be Done $8.00 & (4) Garner $9.50
(5) Santorini Summer
$7.00
(4) Sweet Scandal goes on top here. She won first up at Randwick, where she beat the likes of Greyworm, who has since come out and won his next two starts. Last start, Sweet Scandal bumped into a smart on in Tofane, who then came out and won her next start at Flemington on Derby Day. So the form from both her starts this preparation has stood up in good style and from the good draw, I think she'll take plenty of beating. The wet ground will prove no problem for her. (8) La Tigeresa is going better than what her form may read on paper. She charged home with Admiral's Joker at Geelong three starts back and that's not bad form. She then ran on strongly over 1100m at Caulfield two back, before winning at Moe last start on heavy ground. She shouldn't be discounted. (9) Victory Kingdom ran 2nd in G2 company last time she ran over this track and distance. She's been kept to the short couse distances this prep but now steps up to 1400m with the blinkers removed. (12) Gina's Hope can be included at big odds. They're the four I'd be playing.
Value: (9) Victory Kingdom $10
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(17) Junipal finds another nice race that he's more than capable of winning. He had little luck in Sydney last start but once he got clear room he really hit the line nicely to be beaten half-a-length. Prior to that he had even less luck in the G1 Epsom Handicap, which featured the likes of Kolding and Te Akau Shark. That form has proved to be red-hot so even though he was beaten out of sight, the races themselves are proving to be exceptionally strong. Soft ground is no issue, the step up to 1800m probably suits him and John Allen jumps back aboard. He'll be right in the finish. Two at good odds to include are (12) Second Bullet and (1) Moss 'N' Dale. Second Bullet is first up from a spell with Damien Oliver booked to ride for Danny O'Brien, who are both flying individually and as a combo. His past two first up efforts have been poor and he's now a 9YO but on his day he can really produce a good run fresh. Moss 'N' Dale went off the boil last prep but prior to that he was undefeated second up from a spell. I think his first up run was reason enough to be encouraged that he might be back, and with a second up record like his, and a wet-track record like his, he'd be right in the mix on his best form.
Value: (1) Moss 'N' Dale $12 & (12) Second Bullet $23
Good race. There's been plenty of talk about the return of (1) Royal Symphony and while it's great to see him back at the races, I can't have him after two whole years off the track. It would be a remarkable training effort to get him back winning first up from that sort of break over 1200m down the straight. (2) Tactical Advantage is ready to peak third up today. He ran through the line in the best sectionals of the entire meeting at Moonee Valley last start and he looks primed now. (4) Milwaukee is a straight-track specialist. Whether he has the class is the issue but he's had six starts over this track and distance for three wins and two 2nds. He's also got a good first up record and has three wins from six starts on soft ground. He ticks plenty of boxes at each way odds. (6) Parsifal is flying and he should have won one or two more races before he broke through last start. Damian Lane was the key on that occasion and he chooses to stick with him today. The query has to be barrier 1 but if he can somehow get him off the rail and into a good spot, he'll take some catching. (11) Holbein is another to include at decent odds.
Value: (2) Tactical Advantage $9.00
Another competitive race to finish off the day but I reckon there's a pretty smart one going around here in the form of (5) Xilong. She's a winner of three of her four starts to date. First up she beat a horse called Li'l Kontra - that horse then ran 2nd in the Blue Sapphire Stakes before finishing 4th in the Coolmore Stud Stakes on Derby Day, behind the likes of Exceedence, Bivouac and Libertini. That's red hot form. Xilong then came out last start and beat Garner by 5L and he's no hack either. She'll push forward in search of the lead from barrier 1 and if she gets a comfortable time of it up front, she will take a power of beating. I was keen on (6) Betcha Flying at Rosehill on Saturday but she was saved for this instead. She's ready to peak third up from a spell. (4) Pretty Brazen is the stablemte of Xilong and has won her past two in impressive fashion. She'll be working home late from off the pace. (18) It's Kind Of Magic has only had two starts but on debut she ran 2nd with a 7L gap to 3rd, before dominating last start. She can be thrown in at big odds, while (19) Affir To Remember is a filly I hope gains a start (currently emergency). She won first up at Geelong and then got held up badly to the line when she was really starting to warm up last start in Listed company at Caulfield. She draws poorly but can steam home if she gets a run.
