It’s non-stop English Premier League action as Matchday 22 kicks off on Saturday, after an eventful midweek slate of fixtures. The race for the top four continues to be a tight one, and Jack Tobin has you covered with his best bets below!
EPL 2024-25: Matchday 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Newcastle vs Bournemouth
St James’ Park, Saturday 18th January, 11:30pm AEDT
Newcastle will be out to extend their six-game winning streak when they host Bournemouth to kick off this weekend’s action. Bournemouth conceded a 95th minute equaliser at Stamford Bridge during the week, which cost them crucial points in the race for European football. A win would have had the Cherries in sixth place on the Premier League table, instead they are in eighth. Fortunately for Bournemouth, they take on a Newcastle side that sits just four points ahead of them in fourth place.
Newcastle were one of the big winners of Matchday 21, moving into the top four as their stunning turnaround continues. Eddie Howe’s side looked destined for a mid-table finish after a 5-game winless run between Matchday 5-10, and a four-game winless run between Matchday 13-16. However, six straight wins led by a proficient attacking game has given the Magpies a chance of returning to the Champions League. After Matchday 10 Newcastle were ranked 17th for goals, having scored only 9 goals. However, their six game winning streak has seen them score 18 goals, with four games producing 3 or more goals. Newcastle are now the seventh highest scoring club in the league, with 37 goals.
Newcastle have been an elite defensive side all season long, ranking as the fourth best defence in the Premier League (22 goals conceded). Now that their attacking has come to the fore, they are an incredibly dangerous side, especially at home. Bournemouth have only won two of their last six matches, and have only won four of their eleven games away from home this season. The Cherries record against Newcastle doesn’t inspire much hope either, recording just one win in their last ten Premier League fixtures against Newcastle. The Magpies have an aggregate score line 18-1 over their last six matches in the Premier League, and will keep their hot streak going.
Newcastle -1
$2.60 (1 Unit)
Brentford vs Liverpool
Gtech Community Stadium, Sunday 19th January, 2:00am AEDT
The league leaders head to West London looking to get back on the winners list, when they face off against Brentford. Liverpool missed two very gettable points in their 1-1 draw with Nottingham Forest, failing to capitalise on a 23-6 shot count and 71% possession. Brentford are coming off a remarkable 2-2 draw during the week, scoring goals in the 82nd and 92nd minute to stun Manchester City.
Despite consecutive draws, it’s difficult to fault the Reds at the moment. They have a 14-5-1 record, they are the best attacking team in the league (48 goals scored) and are the equal second-best defensive team in the league (20 goals conceded). Arne Slot’s side are yet to lose on the road this season, with seven wins and three draws from their ten away games. Brentford on the other hand have hit a lean patch of form, winning only one of their last six league matches, which was against cellar dwellers Southampton.
Brentford are one of the worst defensive sides in the league, which is going to be a massive area of concern given the quality that Liverpool possess. The Bees have conceded 37 goals this season, the fifth most in the league, with only West Ham and the current bottom three teams in the league conceding more. The Bees have struggled to be competitive against the better sides this season, against the current top seven teams in the league Brentford have a 1-1-5 record. Once again Brentford looks set to be exposed by a quality outfit.
Liverpool -1
$2.20 (1 Unit)
Arsenal vs Aston Villa
Emirates Stadium, Sunday 19th January, 4:30am AEDT
Arsenal have narrowed the gap on league leaders Liverpool to four points, after their 2-1 victory over Tottenham during the week. The Gunners have another massive clash this weekend when they face off against seventh placed Aston Villa. Villa’s 1-0 win over Everton on Thursday was their second straight win, keeping them within three points of fourth placed Newcastle. A loss for Arsenal will likely cost them second spot and leave them just inside of the top four, so there is plenty riding on this clash.
Aston Villa have been solid over the last month, with a 5-1-2 record across their last seven games. Their only losses in that time have come against third placed Forest and fourth placed Newcastle, and if they can get their attacking game going, they will be right in this game. Arsenal have averaged 55.3% possession this season, the fifth highest in the league, so Villa will need to keep the possession battle close if they want to give themselves a chance to produce in the front third.
Despite producing plenty of results, Arsenal haven’t been as damaging as they were at the start of the season. In five of their last seven Premier League games the Gunners have either won by just one goal, or drawn. Aston Villa have given Arsenal issues in recent times, winning two of their last three games against the Gunners. They might not win this clash, but they’ll do enough to keep it close and provide plenty of value in the handicap market.
Aston Villa +1
$2.60 (1 Unit)
