The opening round of the Formula 1 season finally returns to its rightful place, as the season kicks off in Melbourne at the Albert Park Street circuit. This is the first time since 2019 that the season has kicked off in Melbourne, and it adds to the excitement of the new season for us Aussie fans.
Below, we will have a quick re-cap of pre-season testing to get you up to speed, before diving into a preview of the 2025 Australian Grand Prix, outlining our best bets for the race weekend ahead!
F1 - Australian Grand Prix 2025: Predictions & Betting Preview
Pre-Season Testing
Testing was once again held across three days at the Bahrain International Circuit in Bahrain two weeks prior to the first round in Melbourne. Whilst testing is hard to get a gauge on exactly where the teams are, there are certainly some takeaways from the three days the teams tested their new cars in Bahrain.
The Good
McLaren pushed on with their tremendous form in the second half of the 2024 and look a real shout to win their second consecutive Constructor’s Title in 2025. Whilst they didn’t set the world on fire over one lap (Piastri set the 8th fastest lap during testing), their race pace appeared light years ahead of their rivals. Expect the McLaren to be front and centre to start the season.
Williams got tongues wagging during the off season, as they hired Carlos Sainz to pair up with Alexander Albon in one of the better driver pairings on the grid. And the optimism didn’t stop there, as Sainz managed the fastest time of the entire test, whilst also completing a huge number of laps. Williams will be battling at the top of the midfield to start the season.
Ferrari now have the best driver pairing in Formula 1, with 7 x World Champion Lewis Hamilton coming in to drive alongside Charles Leclerc. The Ferrari was quick during testing, with Hamilton (2nd) and Leclerc (3rd) fast across the three days. Ferrari is the biggest early season challenger to McLaren in my opinion, with both drivers a chance at Pole Position, and a win on Sunday.
The Bad
Red Bull struggled during the testing program, putting together the least number of laps amongst all 10 teams. Whilst Verstappen showed his usual pace, Liam Lawson struggled, and will no doubt take some time to come up to speed. With the loss of Adrian Newey, Red Bull need a quick start to the season, with their ability to develop surely dropping off with his loss. Whilst Verstappen will no doubt be there or there abouts, Red Bull appear to be on the back foot to start the season.
Sauber struggled during the testing week and will more than likely be the minnows to start the season. Whilst Nico Hulkenberg will no doubt get the most out of the Sauber during qualifying, I don’t expect much from the Sauber early in the season. With it’s 2026 rebranding as Audi coming up fast, Sauber will want a steady improvement through the season, but sadly look to be nowhere heading into the Australian Grand Prix.
Grand Prix Preview
The biggest storyline coming into the first race of the 2025 Formula 1 season is the arrival of Lewis Hamilton at Ferrari. Whilst the Ferrari drivers aren’t the favourites to stand on the top step of the podium come Sunday evening, Leclerc ($5.50) and Hamilton ($7.50) are both in the top 4 favourites to win the race. I am more inclined to look towards the Ferrari’s in qualifying, given the apparent race pace of the McLaren’s. Leclerc ($4.00) for Pole is a definite consideration for Saturday.
Looking towards the race, and the McLaren of Lando Norris is justifiably the heavy favourite to take the chequered flag. The price ($2.75) doesn’t make me feel great though, and the Brit’s Australian teammate Oscar Piastri seems like far better value to me. Piastri showed through last season that he can match and beat Norris on any given weekend. At prices upward of $7, Piastri is the best value on the board for a win in my opinion.
Looking towards the midfield, and much will depend on the attrition in the race. The Australian Grand Prix used to be an attrition filled race, however lately the reliability of these cars is sensational. As such, it’s hard to make a bet on someone from the midfield, or lower midfield, to get inside the top 6, given the four top teams will generally occupy the top 8 spots. However, I like Williams’ Carlos Sainz to get inside the top 6 here. There’s good value, and realistically he only needs to beat one of Lawson and Antonelli and hope for one retirement in the top four teams, and he can make the top 6. The Williams is fast, and Sainz would love to make a statement here.
My final play will be on Oli Bearman to sneak into the top 10. The Haas has looked competitive during testing, particularly on longer runs. At the price point, Bearman offers value as I see him around that 10-15 place bracket. With a little attrition, a points paying position is certainly a chance, at huge odds.
Other Bets
Charles Leclerc (Pole Position) – $4.00 at Unibet (1.5u)
Lewis Hamilton (Top 3) - $2.37 at Bet365 (1.5u)
Carlos Sainz (Top 6) – $5.50 at Bet365 (1u)
Oliver Bearman (Top 10) - $7.60 at Betfair (0.5u)
Oscar Piastri to Win
$7.50 (1 Unit)
