We have made it to the final round of the 2024 AFL Premiership Season and things will get underway with a dead rubber matchup between two teams who have had sensationally disappointing seasons. Melbourne and Collingwood will meet this Friday at the MCG. Now while both sides seasons are over, we still get the play daily fantasy so nothing lost from our end.
Draftstars continue to offer massive prize pools with the Friday main contest worth $50,000 along with their usual variety of alternate contests:
- AFL $50,000+ Demons vs Magpies
- AFL $5,000+ Demons vs Magpies High Roller ($150 Entry)
- AFL $2,000+ Demons vs Magpies Fiver
- AFL $3,000+ Demons vs Magpies Mini ($2 Entry)
The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There are qualifiers and satellites running for every AFL match, while there will also be a sprinkling of qualifiers across other sports such as NRL and NBA.
Betting Markets
Melbourne ($2.10) vs Collingwood ($1.72)
Points: 165.5
Line: Collingwood -4.5
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Additionally, we have a full Melbourne vs Collingwood Betting Preview for the game where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!
Weather
19 degrees and rain developing in the afternoon to evening.
While the forecast is just up to 6mm it is quite possible we see rain during the game. The MCG has arguably the best drainage of any football ground in Australia but rain during the game can still have an impact. Monitor conditions leading up to the bounce and consider moving to inside players if it is wet.
Where to Attack?
Melbourne have been getting destroyed by inside midfielders through the second half of the season, giving up over 5 points per game above league average over the last 10 games (the fourth highest mark in the league over this period of time). Collingwood are not far behind consider over 3 points per game above league average so stacking up either inside midfielders on this slate is in play.
Surprisingly, the Magpies have been getting well beaten by opposition forwards through the second half of the year, conceding over 2 points per game above league average to key forwards and a whopping 5 points above league average to general forwards (the highest in the league).
Collingwood are also giving up the second highest amount of fantasy points to the opponents designated kicker over the last 10 games.
Game Script – Melbourne forwards and backs, Collinwood midfielders
VALUE PLAYS
Finlay Macrae ($6,000) will obviously come with a sub risk so keep an eye on the final teams, but in a dead rubber to close out the season there is also very much the possibly they give him a full run in his natural position as inside midfielder. He was the Magpies big spruik through the preseason this year but similar to the rest of the side, did not end up living up to the hype. That said, we have seen over 10x returns at the minimum price point at times this year when he played a full game, including their last matchup against Melbourne where he attended 60% of the Magpies centre bounces.
Judd McVee ($9,270) was thrown into the midfield last week as the Demons indicated to everyone that the season was totally gone, so let’s just experiment a little bit. This didn’t translate to a high fantasy score but in that role I still like him at this price point. Even better, if he doesn’t get put into the middle, he’s still a solid play in Demons back stacks given the Magpies give up points to designated kickers and McVee has taken a share of kickouts for the Demons this season.
MID PRICED PLAYS
Alex Neal-Bullen ($12,040) is another from Melbourne who is seeing plenty of inside midfield time at this point in the season. He attended over 50% of the Demons centre bounces last week and as a result has now backed up two straight 100+ point games. If this play makes you too nervy, I would look to spend up a little to Trent Rivers ($13,990) whose role is a lot more locked down.
Jack Crisp ($11,930) should see his own share of midfield time in this final game of the season and if there is anyone who likes to fill up in a dead rubber it is him. He has consistently been attending over 50% of their centre bounces during the second half of the season and went through patch of six straight 100+ games in a row during the middle of the season. I love his upside in an elite matchup for midfielders at this price point.
PREMIUM PLAYS
Nick Daicos ($16,180) is the priciest player on the slate, which means you will need a big return. But I think he is another who will look to rack up his disposals in this final game. As noted above this is an elite matchup for Daicos and I don’t expect Melbourne will worry too much about a hard tag in this contest.
Suggested Draftstars Team
Cheat Sheet
