Two first up winners go head-to-head on Friday Night, with the Broncos hosting the Cowboys at Suncorp Stadium. These traditional rivals have in the past generally had tight contests, however last year the Cowboys managed two comprehensive victories over their Sunshine State rivals. This matchup will give us a real indication as to whether the Broncos are the real deal early in the season, whilst also allowing the Cowboys a chance to continue flexing their premiership muscle.
It was a slow start last week, going 1-2 (-0.18u) for our Best Bets in round 1. It was a good call to start with low staking, and we will stay conservative to start the season. Make sure you check out our Best Bets for every game this NRL season!
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Brisbane Broncos vs North Queensland Cowboys Preview & Betting Tips
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 10th March, 8:00pm (AEDT)
The Broncos started their 2023 campaign with a tremendous away win over the defending Premiers. It was the Broncos defence that won them the game, constantly denying the Panthers inside their redzone, with the Panthers only managing two tries, despite running for over 2000 metres (most in round 1). The Broncos will be wanting more in attack, however, and given how slick the Cowboys looked in the first half last week, Head Coach Kevin Walters will know the Broncos will need to score more than 13 points to get the win this week.
The Cowboys were a tale of two halves last week in their 19-18 victory over the Raiders. The Cowboys led 18-0 after 35 minutes, in what was the most impressive half of football in round 1. They looked to be in mid-season form in attack, with their timing and execution impeccable. In the second half, they seemed to go into their shell, appearing to play not to lose their lead, as opposed to playing to win. This allowed the Raiders back into the game, and it took a 75th minute Chad Townsend field goal for the Cowboys to secure the two points. A more complete 80-minute performance will be what Head Coach Todd Payten will be looking for this week.
There will be one big change for the Broncos this week, with star recruit Reece Walsh set to make his Broncos debut at fullback, pushing Selwyn Cobbo to the wing, and Jesse Arthars out. It’s an unlucky break for Arthars, who was brilliant last week against the Panthers. Nevertheless, seeing Walsh out there will give Broncos backers that bit more confidence that they can get the chocolates tonight.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have made zero changes on the back off their round 1 victory, and appear likely to run out 1-17 against the Broncos.
Looking at the market, the Cowboys were 1.5-point favourites when this market opened up before the round 1 games, with the market flipping to now have the Broncos as 1.5-point favourites heading into their round 2 clash.
Whilst I agree the Broncos deserve an upgrade from last week, I don’t agree with the extent at which the market has upgraded them. Yes, their defence was solid last week, and yes, they did beat the Premiership favourites away from home, but I put that result more down to the Panthers’ performance than that of the Broncos. The Broncos are also the biggest mover in Premiership betting markets, moving from 17/1 a week ago to now sit at 11/1 and equal 5thfavourites to win the Premiership.
I believe this move is a massive overreaction, something we see regularly from round 1 to round 2 in the NRL, and I’ll take the underdog to win this one. I see the total (41.5) as being pretty spot on, with my fair being 42. I don’t mind Broncos team total unders, if you’re looking for something a little different.
Other Bet
Broncos (Team Total) Under 20.5 - $1.88 @ Unibet (0.5u)
Cowboys to Win
$2.16 (1.5 Units)
