We were sure a bounce back week was on the horizon and the NFL gods finally delivered in Week 4. After going 0-4 the week before, we went 4-0 on the weekend for a profitable round of NFL betting tips. We’ll look to keep the momentum going as we preview Week 5 of the NFL below.
NFL Week 5 Betting Tips
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Friday 11.25am AEST)
Never in the Brady/Belichick era has a Patriots defence looked this bad to open a season. Through their first 4 games they have allowed a whopping 128 points, second only to the Colts and their ability to stop the pass in particular is troubling. Teams are averaging 324 yards per game against the Patriots and while their star line backer Dont’a Hightower returned from injury on the weekend, it wasn’t enough to stop the Carolina Panthers from putting up 33 points and winning in Foxboro, giving the Patriots a 2-2 record.
There was big talk on the Bucks being strong playoffs contenders at the start of the season and apart from a small blip in Week 3 against the Vikings, they have looked pretty good on both sides of the ball. Their defensive line has been outstanding, allowing just 78 rushing yards per game, good for fifth in the league. However, their ability to stop the pass is better than only New England throughout the first four weeks, with the Bucks allowing 315.7 passing yards per game.
Should be a shootout between two of the better QB’s in the league against some pretty average passing defences. The Patriots have probably realised now that if they want to win games they have to score big so the 55-point total could be in danger here.
TIP: Total points OVER 55.5 - $1.91 at Ladbrokes
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (Monday 7.05am AEST)
Possibly the game of the round sees the Seahawks traveling to LA to face the red hot Rams. The Rams have a 3-1 record and secured a great away win against Dallas on the weekend. Their offence, led by star running back Todd Gurley, has been one of the most damaging in the league through the opening rounds. They average the most points per game in the league at 35.5 and have a great mix of rush and pass options.
The Seahawks are 2-2 going into this game and while they had a massive 46-18 win over the Colts on the weekend, they have looked shaky against the better teams. Their other win came against the 49ers and even then they were only able to put up 12 points. Their offence really struggles to score against average-above average defences and they will need to rely on their defence if they want to leave LA with a win.
Putting aside the fact that they scored 46 points on the weekend, we think Seattle won’t be able to score enough to go with the high powered offence the Rams posses. In LA we expect the home team to come away with the win here.
TIP: LA Rams to win - $1.85 at Sportsbet
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (Monday 7.25am AEST)
Another great matchup here as the Packers travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. The Cowboys have been extremely inconsistent to start the season, going 2-2 with a great win over Arizona but some tough losses to Denver and LA in the mix. The Packers have been great to start the season at 3-1 and while they have relied on powerful offences to carry them to wins in previous years, they seem to have a good mix on both sides of the ball this season.
The Packers average 25.5 points per game and allow 20.3, both slightly above average numbers, and this is all without star QB Aaron Rodgers having the monster games that we know he is capable of.
Dallas relied so much on the strength of their offensive line to carry them to a winning record last year but it looks to have taken a step back this year and it shows in their declining rushing numbers. Green Bay open as underdogs here and in their current form we are more than happy to take the value.
TIP: Green Bay to win - $2.05 at CrownBet
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (Tuesday 11.30am AEST)
The final game of the round sees two NFC North rivals going head to head in Chicago and Minnesota. Both teams have got off to a bit of a rocky start through the first four rounds and are trailing the division leaders Detroit and Green Bay. A win for Minnesota here will keep them in touch with the leading teams while a loss for the Bears would almost extinguish their chances of playing playoffs this season.
Vikings QB Sam Bradford is still under an injury cloud after injuring himself in the Vikings week one win over New Orleans. Their offence looks completely different without him and to make matters worse the Vikings also lost their starting RB Dalvin Cook after an injury on the weekend.
Chicago has been starting Mike Glennon at QB but after some average performances head coach John Fox will start 2nd over pick in the 2017 draft, Mitch Trubisky this weekend. No markets are available for the match yet because of the late fixture and the Trubisky factor but Chicago will probably be home underdogs here which we are happy to go with.
TIP: Chicago to win – no price yet
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