Onward the 2015 AFL season marches as we are up to the eighth week of the year. It looks like quite a tough round, but we will look to find plenty of value, so read on and check out our AFL Round 8 betting tips and preview.
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Geelong Cats Vs. Carlton Blues (Friday, May 22 at 7:50pm AEST)
Friday night’s Blues versus Cats game is all about seeing just how bad Carlton is. It’s also about trying to get a better gauge for where the Cats are at in 2015.
Carlton fans will be hopeful their team finally steps up and overachieves, but unfortunately there is no indication that will happen any time soon. They were beaten by almost 80 points last week and while we don’t think the Cats will win by that much on a Friday night, we certainly don’t think Carlton are a chance.
The unfortunate factor here is that the Cats weren’t great last week. However, you can forgive them somewhat considering they were on the road against a primed Swans. The week before, meanwhile, the Cats looked great, finding a win against the Blues on a Friday night. The Cats have won the last five against the Blues, all at Etihad and we expect that to happen again… And thoroughly.
Tip: Geelong at the line (-31.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet
St Kilda Saints Vs. West Coast Eagles (Saturday, May 23 at 1:45pm AEST)
I’m not sure many would have thought we would be going into Round 8 of the 2015 AFL season with West Coast second on the ladder. St Kilda being 14th, meanwhile, is somewhere in the ballbark of expectation.
After the hype-train of their comeback against the Dogs two weeks ago the Saints were easily taken care of in Adelaide last week. West Coast, on the other hand, crushed the Suns last week.
Not much points to this game being a pleasant day for the Saints. The Eagles are the second highest scoring team in the league and are the most accurate in front of goal. It’s just going to be too tough a task for the Saints, despite the game being at Etihad. Getting Leigh Montagna back is a big plus, but with Reiwoldt out after a concussion, the Saints should be taken care of easily.
Tip: West Coast at the line (-33.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes
GWS Giants Vs. Adelaide Crows (Saturday, May 23 at 2:10pm AEST)
This game at Spotless Stadium could be the toughest of the week. The Giants simply have to break their club records to get the win – they have never beaten the Crows and they have never won three games in a row. They have, however, won the last two games for a reason and so now is the time. It won’t be easy though, with Adelaide sitting fourth on the ladder and looking pretty solid.
The Giants will be very glad to be facing an Adelaide without Rory Sloane, Matthew Jaensch and Broadie Smith and if ever there was a time for Crows’ blood it is now. This is one of those games that we think could go either way, but we lean towards the Giants and will be backing them using the 24-point money back buffer at William Hill.
Gold Coast Suns Vs. Collingwood Magpies (Saturday, May 23 at 4:35pm AEST)
The Magpies head to Metricon Stadium on Saturday afternoon to take on the struggling Suns. The Pies, however, have faced some struggles of their own lately, losing against the Tigers and Cats.
Interestingly the Suns have won the last against the Pies, but there is no doubt the Suns were better last year and even in 2013 which is alarming whichever way you look at it. The Pies get Steele Sidebottom back, while the Suns are still trying to find the right mix without Gary in the side. If the Pies somehow lose, they will be talking point of next week. We don’t think that will be the case though, this is their chance to prove a point a make a statement. The line is around 20 points and we think the Pies will cover.
Tip: Collingwood at the line (-20.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Sydney Swans (Saturday, May 23 at 7:20pm AEST)
The Grand Final rematch at the MCG everyone has been talking about. The Hawks confidence is at a season-high after smashing the Demons last week, while the Swans are starting to build some momentum with two wins in a row after a shaky midway point to the season.
The biggest factor here does seem to be the MCG – the Hawks have won the last three at the venue and have a record of 10-5 against the Swans on this ground. They have actually won 19 of their last 21 total games at the MCG. Throw in the fact that Brian Lake, Jordan Lewis and Isaac Smith are back and we lean towards the Hawks. Should be a ripping game and no doubt will be a tight contest, so once again we will utilise the William Hill 24-point buffer.
Fremantle Dockers Vs. Nth Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday, May 23 at 5:40pm AEST)
The Kangaroos head out west to Domain to take on the top-of-ladder Fremantle Dockers. Would they give themselves a chance? We don’t, but you have to remember these players beat Fremantle at Subiaco last year, so there will be some belief there. It does seem, however, that this year’s Fremantle outfit is superior to last year’s in almost every way.
This game is the most ferocious ruck contest in the league with North’s Todd Goldstein and Fremantle’s Aaron Sandilands definitely the two best tall men in the comp. In terms of actual player rankings, Goldstein has Sandilands covered.
This is one of the tougher games of the week and while we think it will be a tight game, the fact it is played in the west and that Andrew Swallow and Ben Brown are out, we lean towards the Dockers.
Tip: Fremantle Dockers by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet
Essendon Bombers Vs. Brisbane Lions (Sunday, May 24 at 1:10pm AEST)
Do Essendon deserve to be $1.25 favourites against the Lions? I’m not so sure. They looked better against North Melbourne last Friday night, but they struggled against Freo the week before and weren’t great against St Kilda the week prior. Brisbane, meanwhile, defeated Port Adelaide last week and are looking like they are building some confidence. In saying that, we don’t want to get on the hype train too enthusiastically.
The last time these two teams met the Lions were gallant in an eight-point defeat. That game was at the Gabba, while this one is at Etihad. A key factor we are looking at here is the fact that Essendon have struggled in center clearances and have struggled to score this year. Brisbane haven’t proven much better in this regard, but Rockliff is starting to get back to his normal self, while Dayne Beams is picking up the pace. We aren’t saying we think the Lions will win, but don’t write them off and certainly take a look at the line.
Tip: Brisbane at the line (+27.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Melbourne Vs. Western Bulldogs (Sunday, May 24 at 3:20pm AEST)
Despite a couple of losses, the Western Bulldogs are still looking strong in 2015, pushing the Dockers to the wire last week. Melbourne, meanwhile, look on the opposite end of the spectrum after being demolished by the Hawks last week.
The only positive for Melbourne in this game is that it’s at the MCG, but even then the Dogs have won two of the last three at the ground and nine of the last ten overall. You would hope that Melbourne bounce back from their Hawks loss, but enough signs point to a Bulldogs win to back them in.
Tip: Bulldogs at the line (-17.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
Port Adelaide Power Vs. Richmond Tigers (Sunday, May 24 at 4:10pm AEST)
The Tigers and the Power had contrasting weeks in Round 7 – the yellow and black showed some swagger in their victory over the Pies, while the Power faltered against the Lions. The call was made that it was the worst loss of Power coach Ken Hinkley’s career. They will certainly be looking to put that loss behind them and will luckily be at Adelaide Oval to try and do just that.
Going on last week’s form we would certainly be happy to back in the Tigers, but at the end of the day you must think Port Adelaide’s last week was just a speed bump. They should have enough to outclass the Tigers, but in terms of betting we will be staying away.
Tip: No Bet
