After a handy couple of rounds betting on the AFL it was a different story last week as it was a tough weekend. It looks like this weekend poses some tough games to pick, but regardless we will be looking to find some value in our AFL Round 5 betting tips!
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Carlton Blues Vs. Collingwood Magpies (Friday, May 1 at 7:50pm AEST)
It’s always a big game when Carlton Blues Vs. Collingwood Magpies plays out on a Friday night at the MCG. However, throw in Mick Malthouse’s coaching record and the fact this is against his old team and we have ourselves the biggest game of the year so far.
The football romantic, or Malthouse fan, would like to have everyone think that Carlton will step up and get over the line. We don’t think that will happen. Andrew Carrazzo out with an injury is a big loss for Carlton and will change the fabric of their midfield and make it easier for the Pies to get a hold of the ball through the guts. The Pies have been in ripping form and really are the overachievers for us this year. They have won the last four against the Blues and we think that trend will continue in Round 5.
Tip: Collingwood at the line (-8.5) - $1.92 at Crownbet
Richmond Tigers Vs. Geelong Cats (Saturday, May 2 at 1:45pm AEST)
There is a lot at stake in Saturday’s Richmond Tigers Vs. Geelong Cats. Both teams desperately need to win to gain a bit of confidence back with their members after a shaky start to the 2015 season. Surprisingly it is the Cats who are more desperate with a 1-3 record going into this game.
Before looking at the odds earlier in the week we would have thought these two teams would have been evens, but instead we were somewhat shocked to find the Tigers as solid favourites. The Tigers were awful against the Demons last week and while they won’t likely play that bad again, they don’t deserve to be warm favourites just on a ‘they will bounce back’ mentality. The Cats, however, might have lost against the Roos last week, but they took the game on unlike they had in the week’s prior. There is just too much value on the Cats here to ignore.
Tip: Geelong Cats head-to-head - $2.25 at Crownbet
Sydney Swans Vs. Western Bulldogs (Saturday, May 2 at 2:10pm AEST)
Can the red, white and blue continue to shock us at Saturday’s Sydney Swans Vs. Western Bulldogs? Nope, we don’t think so. There is no doubt the win against Adelaide was huge for the Bulldogs last week, but you got the feeling Adelaide came out thinking it was an easy win and were blindsided. John Longmire’s Swans won’t make that same mistake and considering the Dogs terrible record against the Swans and the fact it’s up in Sydney you could actually see this one blowing out. The big question mark here is if the Bulldogs can implement their coaches defense style against the Swans like they have against others this year. The five-goal line looks too big to flirt with the Swans, but too many unknowns still with the young Bulldogs side.
Tip: No Bet
Gold Coast Suns Vs. Brisbane Lions (Saturday, May 2 at 11:30pm 4:35pm AEST)
Saturday afternoon’s Gold Coast Suns Vs. Brisbane Lions is one of the more interesting Round 5 games. Both teams are struggling and both were smashed last week. The good news for Brisbane coming into this one is that Tom Rockliff will be playing his second game back from injury and should be much better than last week. The even better news for Brisbane is that the Gary Ablett-less Suns lose David Swallow and Nick Malceski when they need them most.
When you look at this game on paper it’s hard to come up with a lot of reasons that the Suns should be the favourites and with some great head-to-head promos out there like Sportsbet’s ‘lead at any break, cash back’, we are happy to get on the Lions.
Tip: Brisbane Lions head-to-head - $1.96 at Sportsbet
North Melbourne Kangaroos Vs. Hawthorn Hawks (Saturday, May 2 at 7:20pm AEST)
The question coming into North Melbourne Vs. Hawthorn Hawks is all around whether or not the Kangaroos can upset the Hawks like they did last season. We don’t tend to think so, but they match up well enough for the 20-point line to peak our interest.
If there was ever a time for the Kangaroos to go for the throat it’s now as the Hawks defense is without Brian Lake and James Frawley. We do think the Hawks have a deep enough list to still deserve to be favourites, but maybe not such big favourites.
Tip: Kangaroos at the line (+21.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
West Coast Eagles Vs. GWS Giants (Saturday, May 2 at 5:40pm AWST)
Saturday night’s West Coast Eagles Vs. GWS Giants is looking like it will be a really tough game. Amazingly, the Eagles have won the last three games against the Giants by an average of almost 100 points – very unlikely that will happen again!
What the Eagles lack in defense at the moment, they make up for in the forward line. However, this one looks like a battle of the midfield and a battle of the big fellas. There is no doubt the Giants midfield are close to elite, but the Eagles are also solid in this regard. The Nic Nat V. Mummy ruck battle will also be important. We can’t forget this game is out west and it’s not often an expansion club would travel to Western Australia and the local team would be paying as much as $1.65. Seems to be value with the home team, but we do think the game will be competitive.
Tip: West Coast Eagles by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.30 at Sportsbet
Melbourne Demons Vs. Fremantle Dockers (Sunday, May 3 at 1:10pm AEST)
Just how one-sided will Melbourne Demons Vs. Fremantle Dockers be? That’s the question coming into Sunday’s first game. The Demons were great against the Tigers last week, but the Tigers were also woeful. Fremantle are a different story all together. They are the in-form side in the comp and deserve to be on top of the ladder. They put in another massive win last week against the Swans and look primed for an easy victory here. The only threat with betting the five-goal line is if the Dockers just coast along for an easy victory. That seems unlikely with this mob.
Tip: Fremantle at the line (-30.5) - $1.91 at William Hill
St Kilda Saints Vs. Essendon Bombers (Sunday, May 3 at 3:20pm AEST)
After an okay start to the season, the St Kilda Saints are starting to look more like the wooden-spoon contenders we thought they were and they certainly won’t like their chances against the Bombers this Sunday.
The Saints have won two of the last three games against the Bombers, but these games were during the Bomber’s tumultuous ASADA saga. We don’t expect to see the Saints put another tick in the win column this weekend. However, the six-goal line looks a little tough to bet on. Will be giving this one a miss.
Tip: No Bet
Adelaide Crows Vs. Port Adelaide Power (Sunday, May 3 at 4:10pm ACST)
The talk going into Adelaide Crows Vs. Port Adelaide Power will be ‘form means nothing when it comes to Showdowns’ and while that sometimes seems to be the case, the Power have simply looked fantastic this year, while the Crows showed some of their true colours last week.
The great thing for punters is that the bookmakers seem to rate the showdown-factor as important. Too much value on the Power to ignore, so we will be taking advantage of some of the head-to-head promos on offer that you can read below – Crownbet’s 18 points or less, Sportsbet’s lead at any quarter and William Hill’s 80-point offer.
Tip: Port Adelaide head-to-head at ~$1.62 using all Round 5 head-to-head promos.
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
