The 2015 AFL season has well and truly passed the halfway mark as we look to continue providing our best-value predictions and hopefully plenty of winners. This week we offer our AFL Round 15 betting tips – another one that kicks off on a Thursday night.
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Port Adelaide Power Vs. Collingwood Magpies (Thursday, July 9 at 7:20pm AEST)
After a rough week off the field Round 15 will see the 2015 AFL season trying its best to get back to focusing on footy - and there is no better way to kick off the round than on a Thursday night at a packed Adelaide Oval.
On current form it is hard to fathom that the Pies could be even odds head-to-head against Port Adelaide. They are actually the underdog at some bookmakers. Yes, they are coming off two losses, but it was just 7 point and 10 point losses to the two best sides in the competition. You could argue that the loss to Hawthorn and Freo said more about where the Magpies are at than any of their previous eight wins. They are fifth on the ladder for a reason.
The Power, meanwhile, are 12th on the ladder for a reason. They did look better in their loss against the Swans last round, but prior to that they were woeful against the Blues and not much better against Geelong.
It is Collingwood’s attacking prowess that will be the difference here. They are ranked equal first in the league for marks inside 50 compared to Port who are ranked 11th. Collingwood average two more goals per game than the Power and I can’t see them being able to outscore the black and white. Adelaide Oval won’t play as big a factor as some would suggest and so we see plenty of value with Collingwood to win.
Tip: Collingwood to win head-to-head - $1.96 at Luxbet
Richmond Tigers Vs. Carlton Blues (Friday, July 10 at 7:50pm AEST)
No doubt there will be a monster crowd at the MCG on Friday night as the Richmond Tigers continue their march towards September and the Blues continue to regain some confidence and dignity after a putrid start to the year.
It is true that the Blues have been much better under their interim coach John Barker compared to Mick Malthouse. However, they are still definitely outclassed by the Tigers. After a couple of solid wins the Blues lost by 11 points to the Bulldogs last week. The Tigers, meanwhile, weren’t fantastic last week, but still got the job done against the Giants.
We probably rate the Tigers a four to five goal better team, but being this game is on the big stage, you can expect the Blues to come out fighting and maybe even keep it to a two to three goal contest. The Tigers have won the last two against Carlton by less than 30 points and we expect that to be the case again here.
Tip: Richmond by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet
Essendon Bombers Vs. Melbourne Demons (Saturday, July 11 at 1:40pm AEST)
No one could have guessed two weeks ago that the Demons would be favourites against the Bombers. But then the Bombers lost by 110 points to St Kilda last week and here we are.
This is actually a really hard game to pick. On last week’s form, of course the Demons win. There just hasn’t been a performance that bad from any team in the league this season. You have to think that game was an anomaly. However, there aren’t many other reasons to think the Bombers can win. They are going to be without their skipper Jobe Watson who is battling injury (and maybe some mindset problems).
The Demons, meanwhile, get a few important ins including Heritier Lumumba and look like they should get the four points here. Both the Bombers and Demons are low scoring teams, so you can’t see the Demons blowing it out. Happy to get on the under 39.5.
Tip: Demons by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.10 at Sportsbet
Western Bulldogs Vs. Gold Coast Suns (Saturday, July 11 at 4:35pm AEST)
Two weeks ago Gold Coast were in the discussion for the worst team in the comp. Then Gary Ablett came back into the side and they beat North Melbourne by 55 points. It was on that performance that the Suns are paying just $2.20 against the Bulldogs this Saturday.
This game is up at Cazaly Stadium in Cairns. That will favour the Suns slightly, but the Dogs have been on this turf before and actually beat the Suns by 28 points in Cairns last year.
The Bulldogs have been doing just enough to gets wins the last two rounds. They will need to do a little more against the Suns this week and while we lean towards the Dogs, with key defenders Jordan Roughead and Joel Hamling out, we will be sitting out betting this one.
Tip: No Bet
North Melbourne Kangaroos Vs. Geelong Cats (Saturday, July 11 at 7:20pm AEST)
It would have been hard to guess at the start of the year that this Kangaroos V Geelong game would be 11th V 10th. Both these teams are in real danger of not making the eight and therefore both teams will be fighting hard for a win this weekend.
This one is interesting considering the Cats have had a two week break due to the cancellation of their game against Adelaide last week. That’s two breaks in just four rounds if you count the byes. This kind of resting is unprecedented. Will it take them some time to find their mojo due to being out of practice or will they be fresher than ever? I lean towards the Cats being absolutely cherry ripe.
These two teams have played ten matches against each other at Etihad and both have won five times. North Melbourne get Bastinac back this week, while they have included Ben Brown in the side. Geelong, meanwhile, will be happy to have Bartel and Kelly back in.
Tip: Geelong Hd-Hd - $1.91 at William Hill
West Coast Eagles Vs. Adelaide Crows (Saturday, July 11 at 5:40pm AWST)
The Adelaide Crows return to the football field after the devastating murder of their coach Phil Walsh. Will they step up and try and get a big win against the second-on-the-ladder Eagles? Or will the mental anguish make it hard for them to keep their heads up?
This kind of preparation for a game is absolutely unprecedented. We certainly think the Eagles will win and would have won regardless of the off-field tragedy. They are averaging 105 points per game this year and that kind of scoring power is too strong for the Crows. However, at these odds, and given too many unanswered questions behind Adelaide, we will be sitting this one out.
Tip: No Bet
GWS Giants Vs. St Kilda Saints (Sunday, July 12 at 1:10pm AEST)
The Giants come into this game Sunday having lost three in a row. The Saints, meanwhile, have won three of the last five and have been playing some solid football.
GWS will be happy to have this game at home, otherwise I think this would be an easy bet on the Saints. This is actually an unknown factor for St Kilda as this is the first time they travel to Spotless Stadium. They just aren’t the same team without big Shane Mumford – although they did start to find a bit of groove against the Tigers last week.
On current form we really think the Saints will be competitive against the Giants. They beat the Bombers by 110 points last week and even though there was clearly something wrong with Essendon, you don’t kick 25 goals without being a solid side. We will be getting on the Saints while they are the underdogs.
Tip: St Kilda by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.90 at CrownBet
Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Fremantle Dockers (Sunday, July 12 at 3:20pm AEST)
You know the public, and the bookies, think Hawthorn are a good team when they are paying just $1.47 to beat the top-of-the-ladder Dockers. The game is at Aurora in Tasmania and that is certainly a big factor in the Dockers being underdogs.
The Hawks have won six of their last seven against the Dockers and look primed to win another one. They will need to do just if they want to solidify a place in the top four.
This one is especially interesting because the Hawks are the best attacking side in the comp (averaging 109 points a game), while the Dockers are the best defensive team in the league (conceding just 63 points per game).
The Hawks get Ben McEvoy and Billy Hartung back in the side and are starting to really build some momentum. They are also coming off a couple of extra day’s break and should be too strong for the Dockers. However, we don’t think it will be by a big margin.
Tip: Hawks by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.15 at CrownBet
Brisbane Lions Vs. Sydney Swans (Sunday, July 12 at 4:40pm AEST)
The Lions have lost their last five and the Swans have won four of their last five. It’s the bottom-of-the-ladder Lions against premiership contenders. The only plus for the Lions is that this is on their home deck. They also get Tom Rockliff and Pearce Hanley back in the side, which is huge, but the Swans get Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippet back.
There just aren’t many reasons to think the Lions can be competitive here. Yes they were okay for a few quarters against Fremantle, but ultimately they just ended up proving that they can’t mix it with the big boys. The Swans won’t have trouble at the Gabba and should win this easily.
Tip: Sydney at the line (-35.5) - $1.92 at Sportsbet
