After a week of picking 5 of 5 winners for big profits we will be looking to keep the momentum going as the bye rounds continue. This week the games start on a Thursday with six interesting games on the agenda. Read on to find our AFL Round 12 betting tips.
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Adelaide Crows Vs. Hawthorn Hawks (Thursday, June 18 at 7:20pm AEST)
The opening game of Round 12 sees the Hawks head to South Australia to play the Crows at Adelaide Oval. While many teams have trouble with Adelaide at home, the Hawks have won the last two against this side on the road, including a 12-point win at Adelaide Oval last year. That win was, however, the Hawks only victory out of four lifetime trips to this ground.
Both teams are 6 and 4 going into this game with Adelaide perhaps overachieving this year compared the Hawks who have somewhat underachieved. In saying that, the Hawks are starting to look very dangerous.
The Hawks have averaged just around three more goals per game this year compared to Adelaide and on the flipside of that, are also one of the toughest defensive sides in the comp, conceding just 70.5 points a game. Adelaide are ranked sixth in this category, conceding 83.8 points a game.
Stats like the above are why the Hawks are favourites paying just $1.35, but with this game at Adelaide Oval, we don’t see much value in the head-to-head market. We do think the Crows will be competitive and so we will be taking the Hawks by 39 or less.
Tip: Hawthorn by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.15 at CrownBet
Richmond Tigers Vs. West Coast Eagles (Friday, June 19 at 7:50pm AEST)
It might not be the round opener, but Friday night’s Richmond V West Coast game is still shaping up to be a big game. The Tigers fans are getting excited about the good footy their team is playing, but Eagles fans would be even happier with their team’s performance this year.
This game is very interesting. I’m not sure the Tigers deserve to be the betting favourites that they are. Yes the beat Freo two weeks ago and yes they had the bye week last round so they will come into this refreshed. But we now know that Freo are starting to have some holes in their game and in regards to the byes, well, the Eagles will know they have next week off so have no reason to not give it all they have.
Don’t get me wrong, Richmond are playing great football, but I wouldn’t be writing the Eagles off here. They are the number one scoring team in the competition, averaging 106.5 points a game and I’m not sure the Tigers can stop that sort of firepower. They looked great again at home last week against the Bombers and think they show some value in this game. Richmond won’t let it blow out though, so we will get on the under 39.
Tip: West Coast by 1-39 points (Under 39.5) - $2.55 at Sportsbet
Carlton Blues Vs. Port Adelaide Power (Saturday, June 20 at 1:40pm AEST)
Saturday afternoon sees the Blues continue their journey towards dignity, while the Power look to regain some confidence. Unfortunately it looks unlikely that the Blues will add another win to their one-game tally this week.
The pressure will overcome the Blues here. The Power average the second most tackles per game in the league with 74.5, while the Blues tackle just 54.5 times a game. Take this into account, as well as the Power’s run and overall classiness and you can see this game being the one where the Power start getting their form back. The Blues will be happy to get Gibbs back, but ultimately will struggle here.
Tip: Port Adelaide at the line (-18.5) - $1.92 at Palmerbet
GWS Giants Vs. North Melbourne Kangaroos (Saturday, June 20 at 4:35pm AEST)
It is surprising that the Giants are only paying $3.00 against the Kangaroos this week considering their form and their injury woes that sees four very important players (including Shane Mumford) out of their side.
The Giants really struggled last week against the Pies and with no ruck against Goldstein, you can’t see them being a chance here. The Kangas, meanwhile, will be desperate to get four points on the board, and start making something of a season that has so far been disappointing. The 16-point line looks generous.
Tip: Kangaroos at the line (-16.5) - $1.92 at CrownBet
Western Bulldogs Vs. Brisbane Lions (Saturday, June 20 at 7:20pm AEST)
The Lions travel south to take on the Bulldogs at Etihad on Saturday and this is shaping up to be interesting match up. Both teams are coming off their bye and both would fancy themselves a chance to win this game.
The Bulldogs will be very happy to have the Liam Picken and Marcus Bontempelli back in the side, while the Lions will be just as happy to have Jed Adcock and Jack Redden back.
A key stat here is that the Dogs are one of the best contested ball teams in the comp, while the Lions struggle in this department. The Bulldogs will know this and try to scrap out a win. With Rockliff still out and a few key ins and the home field advantage, we think the Dogs will win this one by at least a few goals.
Tip: Bulldogs by 1-39 points (under 39.5) - $2.20 at Sportsbet
Geelong Cats Vs. Melbourne Demons (Sunday, June 21 at 3:20pm AEST)
The Cats will win this game against the Demons on Sunday afternoon at Simonds Stadium, but the bookies have made it hard with a 5-6 goal line.
The Demons have shown some heart in the last few weeks, but ultimately still have massive holes. The Cats, meanwhile, have returned to really solid form that will be scaring some of their opponents higher than them on the ladder. The Demons do have a few key ins, but this will be too hard to win. Lean towards the Demons at the line, but too fishy a line to bet on. Sit this one out.
Tip: No Bet
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
