The pointy end of the 2014 AFL season continues to deliver exciting story lines and big games of footy. That seems to continue to be the case in Round 19. Last week was a split round, but its back to normal this week – except for the fact we start on a Thursday this time. Be sure to read on and check out our 2014 AFL Round 19 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
**Check out our 2014 Brownlow Betting tips and predictions following Round 18**
2014 AFL Round 19 Preview
Round 19 kicks off on Thursday evening in the West with Fremantle Dockers Vs. Carlton Blues. Somehow, if you believe it, Carlton have a fantastic record against Fremantle at Subiaco, overcoming them in their last four encounters at the Docker’s home ground. This is an interesting one. You have to lean towards Fremantle at first sight of this game. But then you listen to that Subiaco stat, remember that Fremantle got smashed by the Saints last week and that the Blues beat North Melbourne last week. The thing is, if Fremantle can’t win this one, they can kiss any chances of competitive finals series goodbye. This is the game they need to stand up. The Dockers have been good at home this year and with Stephen Hill, Hayden Ballantyne, Aaron Sandilands and Garrick Ibbotson all back in the side (what huge ins), you couldn’t back Carlton in a million years. However, the game might be closer than the Australian sports betting sites will have you believe.
Perhaps the biggest game of the week is Friday night’s Sydney Swans Vs. Essendon Bombers. Both teams have a lot to play for. The Swans lost to the Hawks last week after a big winning streak and need to get back to their winning ways to secure a top-two spot on the ladder and secure a home final. The Bombers, on the other hand, need a couple more wins to make sure they make the top eight. If they win this one, then you would lock up the finals. The Swans have won five of the last six against the Bombers and we don’t expect this one to join the losing column. The Swans have averaged just under 100 points a year this season, while the Bombers have averaged just 83. Don’t think the Bombers can stop the Swans from scoring. Will be a competitive game, but giving this one to the Swans.
The first game on Saturday in Round 19 is Adelaide Crows Vs. West Coast Eagles. It’s at Adelaide Oval and the Crows are coming off a big win against the Pies which saw them sneak into the top 8. They need to keep winning to stay in there and that’s exactly what they should do here. The Eagles can still mathematically make the finals, and they will know that, and as such should be firing up. They won’t have enough to get across the line though as the Crows have found a new scoring prowess, managing an average of 94 points in their last ten games.
Saturday afternoon sees footy head to the MCG for Richmond Tigers Vs. GWS Giants. The Tigers are coming off four wins in a row, scoring an average of 95 points a game and looking like they are finding some of that form that made them formidable in 2013. Back in round 10 the Tigers defeated the Giants by a monster 113 points. Jack Riewoldt kicked 11 in that game. This will be the back of the young Giant’s head. Thinking the line of just over 40 points is a little low here, with the Giants struggling to score enough to get within that. The reason that line is so low is because of their performance against the Cats last week. However, the Cats have notoriously just been getting the job done this year and we must remember that the Giants got smashed by an out of form Dockers the week before and were easily beaten by Adelaide three weeks ago.
One of two games on Saturday night is Gold Coast Suns Vs. St Kilda Saints and this might not play out how we would have expected two weeks ago. The Suns have been described by the media with their most overused negative word of the year – “insipid”. To be fair though, it’s probably true. The Suns once looked like a lock for the eight, but once they lost Gary Ablett they fell to pieces, and ultimately got absolutely pantsed by the Lions last round. The Saints, meanwhile, are coming off a massive win against the Dockers. What a tough game to bet on. Could easily think that the Saints will be at their most confident and will get the points, but could also assume this is the one the Suns really fire up for to gain back some respect. The line is set with the Suns having a 20 point advantage. Leaning toward the Suns here, but not confident enough to pull the trigger.
The big game on Saturday night is North Melbourne Vs. Geelong Cats. It’s at Etihad stadium and to call it “big” was probably an understatement. There should be close to a full house watching what will be a great game. Geelong are third on the ladder, winning seven of their last nine. However, Geelong haven’t beaten a top eight side since Round 10 – that team was the Kangaroos. North Melbourne seem to be the opposite of this, barely winning against the bottom eight sides and stepping up for the big games. Well, except for that Round 10 clash. That game was at Simonds Stadium which would have helped Geelong, but we think they can get it down again here at Etihad. The Cats know how important it is to be winning towards the end of the season and they should could continue to get it done. Will be watching this one with a lot of interest.
The first game on Sunday for Round 19 is Melbourne Demons Vs. Brisbane Lions. It’s at Etihad at 1:10pm and we are giving away premium tickets to this game, with details found in our 2014 Brownlow betting tips article. The Lions are no doubt fired up after a massive performance against the Suns last week, while the Demons will find some confidence in their effort against Port Adelaide. The Demons will also be in a good mood this week as their saviour Paul Roos has signed on to coach for an extra year, bringing his contract to the end of 2016. The line is a goal in the Demons favour, but we think this should be the opposite.
Saturday afternoon sees the footy head to Tasmania for Hawthorn Hawks Vs. Western Bulldogs. The young pups have been firing up of late but they haven’t had to play a side like the Hawks. Last week the Hawks were massive in a victory against the premiership favourites Sydney. The Hawks have won 17 of 18 at Aurora Stadium and don’t look like they will be losing this one. The Dogs did manage to get within 20 points the last time these two met in Tassie, but shouldn’t get any closer than that this time.
The final game of Round 19 is Sunday afternoon’s Collingwood Magpies Vs. Port Adelaide Power. It’s at the MCG and in the Magpies’ fans not-so favourite Sunday twilight time slot. The Power are the favourites in the betting markets, despite winning just two of the last six and just looking sluggish. This is probably because the Magpies look just as sluggish of late. However, there was a glimmer of some good footy against Adelaide last week and the Pies will be looking to build on that. The Pies also have a good record against the Power and need to win this to have any chance at making at the eight. Unfortunately on current form you just wouldn’t think they could beat the Power who will be looking to regain some of the early form of the season and take some momentum into the finals. One of the tougher games to bet though, might sit on this one for now.
Round 19 Best Betting Tips
Fremantle Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.30 at Ladbrokes **
Sydney Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.15 at Ladbrokes **
Adelaide at the line (-31.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes *
Richmond at the line (-44.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
Brisbane at the line (+6.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Multi of the Week
Freo 1-39 / Swans 1-39 / Brisbane +6.5 - $9.49 at Ladbrokes
Before You Bet Round 19 Tipping Advice
Ended up with just the five correct over the split round, getting a few tough ones wrong. Hopefully we can start to finish the season strong with a few clean sweeps! Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition at the local pub or in the work place.
Fremantle (Carlton)
Sydney (Essendon)
Adelaide (West Coast)
Richmond (GWS)
Gold Coast (St Kilda)
Geelong (Nth Melbourne)
Brisbane (Melbourne)
Hawks (Bulldogs)
Collingwood (Port Adelaide)
Score last round: 5
Total score: 106
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
