What a match we have on our hands to get AFL Round 21 underway, with the Western Bulldogs taking on Richmond at Marvel Stadium. It’s a match with massive finals implications and as always, we provide our full preview and best betting tips below.
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AFL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
Western Bulldogs vs Richmond
Friday 7:50pm AEST, August 4th, Marvel Stadium
With very little room for error for both sides, the Western Bulldogs and Richmond will do battle in the opening match of AFL Round 21. Marvel Stadium will welcome a bumper crowd for this Friday night clash, with the Bulldogs being the ‘home’ team.
The Western Bulldogs looked home and hosed against GWS last weekend until a second half collapse saw them cough up the four points. It was another bitter blow to the Bulldogs who have now lost three of their last four and six of their last nine matches. As a result, they now sit in eighth spot on the ladder and are just two points ahead of the teams sitting in 9th to 11th.
Considering their limited talent in the key defender stocks, particularly with Josh Bruce now ruled out for the season, the Bulldogs will need to get more consistent contributions from their star forwards if they’re to make it to September action. Jamarra Ugle-Hagan has kicked only six goals from nine matches away from Marvel Stadium this season, while Aaron Naughton has been held to one goal or less in 9/19 matches.
Richmond put in a decent account of themselves against Melbourne in Round 20, but eventually lost by a comfortable 32 points after getting outgunned in the fourth quarter. Still, the Tigers have won six of their last eight games and have given themselves a realistic chance of making the finals.
The Tigers’ recent winning ways have been on the back of some inspired form by their dynamic stars in Shai Bolton and Dustin Martin. Bolton has averaged 24.3 disposals and 1.3 goals per game since Round 8, while Martin is averaging 26.5 disposals and 1.3 goals across his last six outings.
The last time these two teams met was in Round 4 at the MCG, with the Bulldogs coming out on top by five points in a nail-biter (89-84). Once again, there isn’t expected to be much separating the pair, with the Bulldogs currently listed as the narrow favourites ($1.65) to get the better of the Tigers ($2.20).
On current form, you could definitely argue the Tigers should be the team slightly favoured in the betting markets, although the Bulldogs superior record at Marvel stadium over the past two seasons (14-0-8) compared to the Tigers (0-1-3) cannot be discounted.
You can quite easily make a case to back either team depending on whichever you rate higher between Marvel form vs overall lead-up form; however, with so much at stake for both clubs, I’m anticipating another tight battle that could go either way. And with that in mind, backing either team to win by under 24.5 points has the most appeal.
*Dustin Martin has been ruled out with soreness*
Either Team to Win by Less Than 24.5
$1.82 (2 Units)
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Jamarra Ugle-Hagan 2+ Goals – Loves playing at Marvel. He’s kicked 20 goals from 10 games at the venue this season compared to six goals from nine matches elsewhere.
Jack Riewoldt 1+ Goal – Been down on form and confidence this season, but with Martin out and the Bulldogs lacking quality key defenders, you can expect him to hit the scoreboard at least once.
Marcus Bontempelli 25+ Disposals – The Bont was scorching hot in the first half against the Bulldogs but was well held by a Callan Ward tag after the main break. Expect him to get back to business here.
SGM Odds: $4.50 at BoomBet
