Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Wednesday, April 29th.
We have a seven-race card on the agenda today, with the track currently rated a Good 4 and the rail out 5m. There looks to be plenty of good betting races on the card so check out our preview and betting tips below!
Warwick Farm Racing Tips: Wednesday, April 29th
Best Bet: Race 5 - (3) Harpo Marx
Best Value: Race 6 - (6) Song And A Prayer
Really interesting betting race to kick things off, with a big field and an open market. We've got (4) Forbidden Love as our favourite at $3.60. She was a winner on debut here before finishing 3.5L off Away Game in the Percy Sykes Stakes last time out. That's a very attractive form line obviously, but the form out of her win on debut has so far proved poor. Raison D'Etre ran 2nd to her and she failed to run a place as the favourite at her next start. (11) Still Reigning isn't far behind in the market at $3.90. She's a relation to She Will Reign and Time To Reign. She's had four trials leading into her debut here, but they've all been spaced, so clearly she's had a few issues along the way. Her first two trials were back in October, then her third trial came in December, and her most recent one was 12 days ago. She trialled well on that occasion, posting a 3.3L margin over the 806m heat. She draws barrier 1 so no doubt she rates as a chance, but she's only had that one trial leading into an 1100m race first up and Gary Portelli has just one winner from 26 runners at Warwick Farm this season. It's enough for me to let her go around without my money. Outside of the favoured two runners, there looks to be some attractive prices on offer. (6) Britain looks a huge price to me at $23. He started $6.50 behind Muntaseera on debut back in November and was put straight out to the paddock after finishing last. He's first up here and his recent trial on the synthetic track here at Warwick Farm was very good. He finished 4th but he was under no pressure at all and was only beaten 1.9L. He cruised to the line alongside Rousseau, who was under pressure inside of him, and Rousseau started $5.00 on the weekend in Saturday grade. The blinkers go on for the first time here and Greg Hickman has a 25% strike rate at Warwick Farm this season. Awkwardly drawn out wide but $23 is a great bet. (7) Burdekin is on debut for Gai Waterhouse, Adrian Bott and Tim Clark. He's had two trials leading into today. He won the first of those, where Bellevue Star ran 3rd. Bellevue Star came out of that and won on debut. Burdekin then ran 2nd in his latest trial behind stablemate Inveigle, who was beaten a nose on debut. Tactics from barrier 14 will be interesting - normally with Clark on for this stable you'd think they would lead, but he hasn't led in either trial. Definitely a bet at $15 either way. (1) Hinchbeast has to be respected. He won on debut but didn't really go on with it in three subsequent starts. He's been gelded leading into today and his trial was OK without being excellent. Bowman rode him in his first three career starts and gets back aboard today, and Bjorn Baker has a 37% strike rate at Warwick Farm this season. Respect him. (5) Glaciers hasn't done much wrong in his first two career starts, but it's been a slightly odd start to his career. He won on debut over 900m at Newcaslte, then ran 2nd here at Warwick Farm over 1300m, and now drops back to 1100m. JMac jumps on for the first time in a race start which is always a positive for this (or any) stable. Main two bets in the race for me will be Burdekin and Britain, but I'll be wary of Hinchbeast and Glaciers especially if there is a positive move for them in the market.
(6) Dis Dah Wun had no luck at all on debut at Gosford, trapped four-wide on the speed before eventually crossing to the rails at the 600m mark, but the early work proved too much and she was run down late to be beaten less than a length. She'd trialled well before that and has trialled well again since, so with a good gate today and Avdulla on, she should prove hard to beat. The little concern is the Hawkes stable's record at Warwick Farm - they've had just one winner from 24 starters here this season, and Gosford form is rarely reliable form for a city race. (7) More Prophets started an odds-on favourite on debut at Wyong, albeit a drifting one, and she was beaten 2.5L into 3rd. John Thompson doesn't have a great record at Wyong but he does at Warwick Farm, with a 27% strike rate here this season. I expect her to improve pretty sharply and you have to respect her starting price on debut. Greg Hickman sends around (8) Our Bellagio Miss and Nash Rawiller is an eye-catching jockey booking. Nash has had three wins and three placings from 12 rides for the stable this season. The filly has had excuses in all three starts this prep I think. First up she ran 2nd on the Kensington track but struggled to get clear running down the straight, second up she sat three-wide the trip on speed as the favourite at Nowra, and last start she failed to handle the heavy ground. Back on firmer going, Nash sticks with her, the stable goes well at the track and she looks a big price at $17. I think (9) Segosha might represent a bit of value on debut at $10. She had two trials back in April last year, but wasn't seen again until she reappeared at the trials earlier this month, 12 months after her last trial. She was given a very quiet time of things by Rachel King, not let off the bridle the whole straight, but that was in stark contrast to her latest trial, where she was put under pressure and extended quite nicely to win her heat. It's hard to get a gauge on what she beat in that trial given the horse that ran 2nd was having only its first trial, but I think she might run a big race on debut here at double figure odds. (1) Frosty Rocks resumes as a gelding and is another Bjorn Baker runner - he has a 37% strike rate here this season so be very wary. She won her trial in quick time but Rachel King rode her there and Josh Parr rides her here.
(3) Maggie Miss was unwanted in betting first up but she ran a bottler, beaten half-a-length by Bring The Ransom on the heavy ground at this track and distance. She carries and extra 3kg here but she should find the front. She's raced well on firm ground previously and the stable have a 23% strike rate here this season, so with even luck she looks the one they have to beat. (4) Bubbles Ball was beaten 0.7L on the Kensington track last start and she rarely runs a bad race. She's finished in the top two in 10 of her 16 career starts and even when she's not in the first three, she's rarely far off. She ran 2nd in her only previous start at the track and distance, the blinkers go back on today and JMac takes the ride, so there's a number of positives for her. (7) Threeood shouldn't be underestimated here at double figure odds and I suspect she'll start shorter. She's undefeated this prep and she beat the likes of Dis Dah Wun first up, who will give us a good guide in Race 2. She then came out second up and won pretty cozily at Nowra. While that's not really trustworthy form for a metro race, she's definitely returned in good order and looks a chance at the odds today.
This race is completely different now that Archanna has been scratched. (11) Lillemor goes on top for John O'Shea and Hugh Bowman. She won her first two career starts at Gosford and Wyong before finishing 4th last time we saw her, which was over this track and distance. She started $5.00 on that occasion and was only 1.5L off the likes of Positive Peace, so the form has turned out to be very good! She's trialled well leading into today and Hugh Bowman takes the ride. He's had six rides for John O'Shea this season for two wins and three placings. Will take the $6.00. (2) Petronius can be included in the numbers. He's run 2nd in all three starts when first up from a spell and the races he's contested have been of a good standard for a midweek race like this. He's drawn a bit tricky with 61kg on his back but expect him to be around the mark. (6) Mission Dream has trialled well but it's noteworthy that his first two career starts came over 1400m and he resumes over the shorter trip today. (10) Special Snap was good first up but is yet to run a place on firm ground so needs to tick that box.
(3) Harpo Marx was given one of the biggest barrier trials you'll see last start. He went back to last, stuck to the fence the whole straight and really hit the line in the last 100m or so, despite not having much room in the straight. This is now his third run in Australia having come over from the UK. He steps up to 2400m today and he comes into this third up on the one-week back-up. He won over a similar distance third up last preparation in the UK. Drawn barrier 1 here so I would expect him to sit closer in the run. He looks to be one of Bjorn Baker's best chance on the card and I've already made mention of Baker's 37% strike rate at the track this season. He looks a really good bet at $2.80 and it's no surprise to see he's been supported in early betting. John Thompson is another trainer with a great strike rate here (27%) and he is represented by (8) Wild Impact. She comes off a 3.5L win at Kembla Grange and she's had two runs over 2000m now to prepare her for the step up to 2400m today. (7) Shangani Patrol has a good record at this track and he ran 2nd at his only previous start at 2400m here. He can be included at $17.
(12) Significance is the one to beat here but I won't be taking $2.10 about him. He ran 2nd to All Time Legend first up, that's a good form line. He then failed in two starts after that, but both were on wet ground, and he bounced back with a 7.6L win at Wyong last start when he got back on firm ground, so that suggests to me he's much better on top of the ground. James McDonald is booked today which is a big plus, but this isn't a bad race and let's not forget, the race he won last start was a very ordinary maiden. (6) Song And A Prayer looks a terrific each way bet at $13 to me and that's the way I'll play the race. She was beaten about 3L first up at Kensington but she drew barrier 1 and didn't get much luck at all in the straight. She has a win and a 3rd from three starts when second up from a spell and her only other start at the track and distance was a win. John Thompson has a 27% strike rate here at Warwick Farm and Nash Rawiller has a 30% strike rate when riding for him. This is his only ride for Thompson on the day. She's a great bet at the odds. (11) Navy Cross was beaten just under 2L first up at Newcastle but he was beaten a similar margin first up last prep before winning back-to-back races. Stable goes well here and getting back onto firm ground is a positive, but his metropolitan form is limited which is the concern. (7) Earth Song has returned with a win and a 2nd over this track and distance last start, behind what might be a pretty good horse. She's definitely a chance once again.
(6) Song And A Prayer
$13
Good little contest to finish off here. Bjorn Baker has a bold hand here with two good chances, and both of those are ridden by his top two metropolitan jockeys in terms of their strike rate with him. (4) Aussie has Tim Clark aboard and he resumed with a solid win at Gosford. The query with him is his lack of real metro form but he should land on pace somewhere from barrier 9 and should run well. (8) Bold And Wild is Baker's other runner, with Nash Rawiller aboard. He won two of his three starts last preparation, and you can forgive him for his first up that time in, where he attempted to buck jump early in the race, then sat wide without cover and was still only beaten just over 2L. He's trialled really well this time in. He won his first trial, then was given a quiet time of things in his most recent outing, but made ground nicely late. I'm expecting him to go very well here. (10) Zakat won his first two starts this prep and was only beaten 0.3L by (1) Epic Dan last time out. Both of those horses should run well again. (3) Lifetime Quest has been poor in his first two starts this time in but the blinkers come off today, which should help him settle better as he's been overracing.
