Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Australia Day racing at Warwick Farm on Friday, January 26th.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail out 5m. There are some suspicions that it will be beneficial to be drawn wide and off the fence in the straight.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below. Also be sure to check out EPisode 19 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where Tim (@Tim_Tips) has previewed all the best betting races from Warwick Farm, Moonee Valley, Rosehill & Caulfield this weekend!
WARWICK FARM RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 8 Wahng Wah EW
Best Value: Race 5 Centro Superior EW & Race 7 Bella Galleano EW
Race 1
Tricky little race to start of with. Nothing particularly stands out, so I’ll be playing a little bit wide here. Interested in backing KOOKABAA first up from a spell as a gelding. The obvious concern is that he’s never placed from four starts on Good tracks, but he’s had two trials leading into this, and both were pretty stylish, albeit quiet. This isn’t an overly strong field so he might get away with winning one fresh at $7. TEMPRADO didn’t get much luck first up at Canterbury. He was held up the majority of the straight when trying to build momentum, and he probably should have run a place. The winner of that race was Shumookh, who then came out and ran 2nd to D’Argento last weekend. From barrier 9 he should find the right part of the straight and be competitive at $8. EXCELLENT DESIGN comes off a solid enough debut 2nd at Gosford. Ran home well and gets a big jockey change with Avdulla going on. Gets the run of the race speed-map wise, can win. IRISH SUCCESS is second up after running 2nd to Al Mah Haha at Canterbury first up. That’s decent enough form to be competitive here.
TIP: Kookabaa EW / Temprado EW
Race 2
Small field and not much to shout about here. Doubt I’ll be getting involved at these prices but I’ve got ROCKIN’ RUGA on top here who should get a soft time of it in the lead and can improve up to 1600m at its third start. Has the win on the board at this track last start and should take some catching. AMANITO has on two of its three starts and probably had an excuse at its only defeat, when it blundered at the 1000m mark before weakening badly. Will need to quicken under the big weight from the back of the field but Angland has had two rides for two wins on this horse. COOL DUDE AUSBRED isn’t completely hopeless. Hasn’t done anything in his past two starts but the blinkers go on for the first time here and his form last prep, and even at his first start this prep, wasn’t terrible. Small fields can bring out rough results. DELADIES BOY and JOLLY HONOUR should camp behind the speed and get their chance.
TIP: Rockin’ Ruga
Race 3
ONCE MORE A LADY has been well-backed early in betting for this race, but I’m keen to take it on. She’s yet to win first up and has had six starts at the distance for just the two minor placings. That includes two starts over this track and distance for no placings. Can win but at the prices I’d prefer to be on LAKE LUGARNO, who has returned in good form this preparation. First up she was just fair on a wet track, but she improved significantly last start when leading all the way to bolt in at Canterbury. Gets similar conditions here, and although I’m wary of horses coming off a Canterbury win when they led, she looks a good chance again. Undefeated third up from a spell, good record at the distance, $4.80 appeals with money back for 2nd or 3rd (up to $100) with Pointsbet. MISSILE CODA showed early last prep that she could be fairly talented. She is undefeated first up from a spell so I’ll be saving on her at $4.40.
TIP: Lake Lugarno
Race 4
BROOK MAGIC looks ready to put in a big run fresh here and deserves favouritism. Her two wins at the start of last preparation were very impressive, and she went on to be narrowly defeated over this track and distance third up. She’s had two good trials leading into her first up run today, and her latest trial has already produced a winner in D’Argento. Avdulla rides at 53.5kg which is ominous – he’ll kick her out to lead and she’ll be tough to catch. ROSE OF MAN is the biggest danger having won two from two so far this preparation, including a victory over subsequent Saturday winner Tip Top. Has a good record at the track and distance and I definitely won’t be losing on her. LOVERBOY CHARLIE ran a good race first up in Saturday grade and drops back in class here. Second up should be right at his top and has won his only start at this track and distance. MANA smashed the clock at the trials and Memes came out of that last trial and won last weekend. Hugh Bowman taking the ride at 62.5kg suggests he’s forward enough to win despite the big weight. His first up record and record at the track is cause for concern, though he is first up for the new stable. Brook Magic on top, saving Rose Of Man.
TIP: Brook Magic
Race 5
Tricky sort of race. I’ve gone with MAHALNGUR on top but not with a great deal of confidence. This horse was backed off the map on debut at Newcastle and produced a big win coming from well back in the field. The form out of that race has turned out okay, and at his second start he was only beaten 2.2L by Addictive Nature. He returns fresh here with just one trial under the belt. He’s certainly got the most upside in the race, but whether 1200m first up is a touch short of his best is the query. Barrier 10 will see him drift back – the positive is he’ll get wide in the straight but he’ll have plenty of ground to make up and will need a good tempo set up front. He’s found his right price. CENTRO SUPERIOR is the value in the race at $19. Didn’t get a great deal of luck first up and only got clear late in the race. The form from the race is reasonable, and he has a great record at this track and distance with three starts for two wins and a placing. Should be at ready to win second up here and draws well in barrier 4. Keen to have something on. ALL IN THE REFLEXES didn’t get a lot of luck first up and gets Adam Hyeronimus on board today, which is a good lead for this stable. Trialled very well leading into this prep but has a poor second up record. BOLD CHANCE and PHOEBE’S LASS not hopeless.
TIP: Mahalangur / Centro Superior EW
Race 6
Really only interested in two horses here. VASSAL goes on top. He’s run his last four races over this trip and has won two of those, with a narrow defeat last time out too. Overall he’s got a good record at the distance and draws well here for Tye Angland. He’s had a quiet trial since his last start and should be right in the finish at $5.50. CORDERO has won three on the bounce, the last two of which have been at this distance. The horse is flying and deserves favouritism. His last win was a bit of a gut-buster so the query is if he can back up from that, but generally these stayers relish tough races. Definitely saving on him. MONTAUK gets Bowman on board so there’s every chance he’s actually the pick of the Waller horses (it’s a bit of a guessing game), while IMPERIAL AVIATOR gets the blinkers off today and is back in Sydney after two disappointing runs in Melborune. If he rediscovered his form from earlier this prep he’d be competitive. Vassal looks a decent each way bet or you can play the promos on offer with money back for 2nd and 3rd.
TIP: Vassal EW
Race 7
Bit of an ugly race. Absolutely nothing stands out here. I’m keen to take on the favourite PERIBSEN who has only managed to place once from eight starts on Good ground, with his two career wins both coming on Soft tracks, including last start at Kembla. He may well just prove too good as the relatively unexposed horse in the field, but he’ll be on a firm track today and at that price you can leave me out. Going to have a throw at the stumps with two at good odds. ROKDA KASBA is sent over from Melbourne by Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig after winning last start at Sandown over a similar distance. He’ll be rock hard fit and has a good grounding for this race, so at $12 he’s worth having something small on. Waller generally always pops up in these races and I think BELLA GALLEANO can do just that at $19. She didn’t do much over 2400m behind Cordero last start, but the form out of that race is fairly good, and her second up run on the Heavy track was good when she ran 2nd. She’s been back to the trials since her last start, and she’s now fourth up, which is when she won last preparation. Has run 2nd at both starts at this track and distance, so with the good draw I’d expect her to be very competitive in a tired field.
TIP: Rokda Kasba EW / Bella Galleano EW
Race 8
Pretty keen to follow my money with WAHNG WAH here, who is really putting the writing on the wall and is ready to win. Had no luck in its first two starts this campaign, and really drove hard late last start at Canterbury. He hit the line very strongly when he eventually got clear running and got to he outside, and for the first time this prep he gets a senior rider with Schofield taking over from Rachel King. The drop back from 1550m to 1400m is some query, but he has won over this track and distance before and should be ready to win fourth up today. Good odds again at $9. KOOL VINNIE turned his form around when winning last start at Canterbury, and can go on with it today at his third run back from a spell. Bowman takes over and the wide draw isn’t much of a concern. $9 available for him too. ONSLAUGHT ran 2nd to Kool Vinnie last start and should be thereabouts again. VANILOQUIO and AQUATIC chances.
TIP: Wahng Wah EW / Kool Vinnie EW
QUADDIE
5, 7, 8, 10, 12
3, 4, 6, 7
3, 4, 8, 11, 14
1, 8, 10, 12, 14
$100 = 20%
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