NRL action begins on Friday with two intriguing contests. The first heads across to New Zealand with the desperate Warriors hosting the last-placed (and struggling) Tigers. The Warriors are dangerously close to having their Finals hopes ended prematurely. Meanwhile, the Tigers appear to have regressed; they’re struggling for consistency and conceding too many points. A win would do wonders for both sides. As always, Before You Bet is here to take a detailed look at the action ahead.
NRL Round 21 Preview & Betting Tips
New Zealand Warriors vs Wests Tigers
Go Media Stadium – Friday 26th July – 6pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Warriors travelled across to Canberra to face the Raiders last week and fresh off a Bye in Round 19, were hopeful that they could bounce back to winning form. They were ultimately let down by their goal kicking; scoring 4 tries to 3, they converted just 1 of those. Scoring late in the first half and trailing 14-6, the Warriors hung in the contest. Setting the standard, they completed at 84% with 51% possession, averaged 9.5m per carry, and had 5 line breaks. Such a narrow loss via poor execution is bound to hurt their confidence moving forward.
The Tigers are completely void of that following 4 consecutive matches where they have conceded 40+ points. Last week, it was the Rabbitohs who seemingly remained in second gear for majority of the match and punished the Tigers for simple mistakes. With just 46% possession, they completed at only 70% and were always going to struggle to win with these numbers. Their defence was again an issue, missing 45 tackles and allowing 7 line breaks. This team must address their defensive shortcoming should they wish to avoid the wooden spoon for another season.
Match Prediction
The Warriors are strong favourites for this game ($1.25 vs $4). This reflects the recent form of the visitors more than the improvement of the Warriors. Fact is, they have won just 1 out of the past 5 matches. Despite being highly ranked in completion rate, total metres and PCM’s, they are unable to turn this into points. They have averaged only 20ppg (Tigers 17ppg) for the season. Their defence is stronger than the Tigers; the Warriors concede 22ppg compared to the Tigers 29ppg.
The home ground advantage (Warriors 57% vs Tigers 43%) will also count for something. History suggests the home side has an edge also; the Warriors have won 7 out of the past 10 matches against their opponents. This game is the Warriors to lose; despite welcoming back Koroisau to their team (who will give them a natural lift), they lose Doueihi and Sezer. The Warriors have their own issues covering the absence of Tuaupiki and Pompey but have a strong team across the park.
The line is set at 13.5 points and while the Tigers recent form has been poor, the scoring averages for the season and average from their past 5 games against one another (7.2 points) suggests that it will be closer than most think. Taking this on appears to be the right approach to take; sooner or later the Tigers will ‘click’ again, and the Warriors are vulnerable enough to allow that to happen.
Tigers +13.5
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
The line selected is a ‘safety net’ as opposed to taking on the overall line. It is probably the longest list of try scorers suggested ever in the history of Before You Bet (you could also include Fonua-Blake as a chance too). They all have a place; DWZ is the leading try scorer for his team with 9 for the season, with CHT and RTS in equal 4th with 4 tries. Not the highest of statistics but the inferior Tigers defensive line might just allow them the opportunity to add to their season tally.
SGM Odds: $10 at QuestBet
