The final game on NRL Super Saturday is an intriguing contest between the Storm and Raiders. Each are currently experiencing a vastly different run of form, but both will be out to prove a point in a crucial match. With the Origin period impacting teams, 2-competition points are vital. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the action ahead and help you to figure out which team can win this match.
NRL Round 17 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders
AAMI Park – Saturday 29th June – 7:35pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Storm managed to both impress and scrape home with a 30-24 win over the Dolphins. Having star players returning from injury was always going to assist their performance and cover the omission of others, with this proving correct in an exciting first half. The teams headed into the break locked at 18-all, with the Storm starting the second half strong to kick clear. Their victory was made more impressive by the fact that they were obviously off their best; with just 47% possession they completed at 75%, made fewer metres and missed 35 tackles. The Dolphins appeared to be stronger in the middle, with the Storm failing to resemble a team leading the competition. The fact that they still won says a lot about this side in 2024.
The Raiders can only wish for such a level of execution. They too were poor in their match against the Tigers but were defeated 48-24. They were meagre in the first half, trailing 18-2 at the break and it only got worse from there. Despite scoring 4 second half tries, they conceded 8 in total and were clearly the inferior team. Even with a larger share of possession (51%), they only completed at 75%, made fewer metres despite having more total runs, conceded 8 line breaks and missed 42 tackles. The comments of coach Stuart in the post-match interview didn’t miss either. It will be interesting to see how they bounce back this week after previously succeeding in this situation already in 2024.
Match Prediction
This is exactly the game where the Raiders come out and cause an upset. We have all read this script before: they were poor against an inferior opponent last week, travel to hostile environment and are outsiders. Recent history is on their side too as the Raiders have won 2 of the past 3 games against the Storm at home. They relish a siege mentality and coming off a disappointing loss should only make them more determined. The other team in this narrative though is the competition leaders.
The Storm are sitting at the top of the competition ladder (and NRL Power Rankings) for a reason; their averages in both attack and defence are far superior to the Raiders. In attack, they average 27ppg compared to the Raiders 21ppg, while defensively conceding 20ppg and 26ppg respectively. If there is a knock on the form of the Storm, it is that they are yet to completely dominate a team over 80 minutes; only 2 of their 11 victories have been by a 13+ margin. There are numerous examples this season of them allowing inferior opponents back into a contest. Use this statistic in your favour.
The visitors have been given a generous line, mainly based off their form against the Tigers. Their positives shouldn’t be forgotten too quickly, even if that have been lacklustre in majority of their matches. There is every chance that this game will go down to the final few minutes of the contest before a winner is decided.
Raiders +13.5
$1.95 (2 Units)
Margin
An unusually high total on offer considering how previous matches between these two sides has played out. The attacking record of each also suggests the score could be kept below this large total.
Total Points Under 51.5 – $1.90 at Ladbrokes (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The first option for the total points is adding value (see above) for a small total. The margin goes without saying when you look at the ‘Suggested Bet’, but it is just making a call on a winner. Papenhuyzen returned with a bang last week and you can expect the Storms leading try scorer to be hovering around the ball again.
Total Points Under 48.5
Storm 1-12
Papenhuyzen to Score
SGM Odds: $15 at Ladbrokes
