Round 1 of the 2024 NRL season continues with an early season banger, as the three-time reigning premiers the Penrith Panthers head south to take on the Storm. After coming home from England with their tails between their legs, the Panthers will look to shake off another World Club Challenge loss by snapping one of the all-time streaks, with the Storm looking to win their first-round match for the 22nd year in a row. Unbelievable.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
NRL Round 1 Preview & Betting Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers
AAMI Park, Friday 8th March, 8:05pm (AEDT)
Match Preview
These teams come into the 2024 NRL season as two of the Premiership Heavyweights, with five of the past seven Premierships between them. The Panthers currently sit as the favourites ($4.00) to raise the Provan-Summons Trophy in October, whilst the Storm ($10.00) are the fourth favourites to win the Premiership at BoomBet. I don’t disagree; however, I sense the Storm are slightly underrated in the market early in the season, with the Storm never reaching double digit odds to win the Premiership last season.
The biggest storyline effecting the market in this clash is the availability of Cam Munster for the Storm. After an apparent slip in the shower, Munster is nursing a groin issue and is under some doubt heading into this monster clash. If he doesn’t play, the Panthers should probably be closer to 8-10 point favourites for mine.
After the loss in the World Club Challenge, the Panthers drifted in the market, with the Storm taking on serious money. However, since the news of the Cam Munster injury, the Panthers have once again firmed to 4.5-point favourites. For reference, the Panthers closed as 2.5-point favourites the last time these teams played in Melbourne, a round 18 victory for the Panthers (34-16). In fact, the Panthers managed three wins in the span of three months over the Storm, by the aggregate score of 98-26, quite the run of dominance.
Match Prediction
If we were going purely off last season’s numbers, the Panthers look the value here, however I believe this is exactly the time of the season the Storm would want to be taking on the Panthers. The Panthers have had a somewhat truncated pre-season with the trip to England and will have less miles in the legs. I’d be far happier betting a full-strength Storm, but with Munster in doubt I’ll steer clear.
NB: With Munster ruled out, I like the Panthers to cover the spread, and believe the number will close between Panthers -7.5 and -9.5
As for the total in the matchup, it currently sits around 36.5, which, if it closes there will be lower than any total from last season. Whilst a high intensity, low scoring matchup is certainly a possibility, this total is too low in my opinion. With two of the best attacks in the NRL, I believe the over is the only bet I would make on the total. However, I won’t be betting overs this early in the season. Small stakes for round one here.
Panthers -5.5
$1.87 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Panthers ML – As above, I see the Panthers winning comfortably now with the loss of Munster for the Storm
Under 18.5 points (1st half) – The Panthers are a notoriously stingy defence in the first half, and a tight first half is a real possibility in this game. Both games in Vegas started slowly, even the Rabbitohs v Sea Eagles game, which opened right up in the second half.
Brian To’o (1+ try) – Six tries in his past three games against the Storm, expect the Panthers to look to To’o as their main attacking threat, with Crichton gone and Turuva under an injury cloud, expect To’o to be heavily involved near the try line.
SGM Odds: $4.43 at NEDS
