Week one of the 2023 AFL Finals will conclude on Saturday with a mouth-watering double-header. First up is the second elimination final which will be contested by St Kilda and GWS at the MCG. We bring you our full match preview and betting strategy for the clash below!
Also, we’re providing previews and expert betting tips for all 2023 AFL Finals matches, so make sure to head over to our AFL Tips page regularly to keep up to date with all of our content!
2023 AFL First Elimination Final Preview & Betting Tips
St Kilda vs GWS
Saturday 3:20pm AEST, September 9th, MCG
Not many pundits had St Kilda making the top eight this season, but here they are about to host a home elimination final on Saturday. It’s a credit to the coaching job Ross Lyon has done in his second stint in charge of this club, and even if they fail to win on Saturday you could argue it’s been a successful 2023 for the Saints.
The Saints were expected to taper off towards the end of the regular season but actually enter the finals in some solid form. They’ve won four of their last six games and the only two they’ve lost during that span were against two of the in-form teams in the competition in the Blues and the Lions.
Similarly, not a great deal was expected of GWS this campaign after their 16th place finish in 2022. However, a switch in coach has renewed belief for this largely inexperienced group and they’re set to attack a finals campaign once again. Again, just making it to the finals this year is a terrific achievement for Adam Kingsley in his first crack at the senior coaching role.
The Giants hit their straps during the midpoint of the season, reeling off seven straight wins from Rounds 13-20. They then hit a dry patch where they lost two on the spin and looked unlikely to make it to September action, but wins in the last two rounds ultimately saw them clinch seventh position.
Match prediction: Despite finishing higher on the ladder and earning the right to play hosts on Saturday, the Saints have been priced as slight underdogs in this matchup. Some would argue the case that the Giants finished the season as the stronger side, but there’s a hint of fool’s gold about some of the wins they picked up in the latter stages.
Furthermore, the Saints won the only matchup between these sides this season, defeating the Giants by 12 points on May 21st despite being the travelling side. In fact, the Saints have won each of the last four meetings with the Giants and three of them were when they were underdogs.
Our computer model (see above) rates the Saints as the better team in this matchup and although it’s not foolproof, there’s enough recent head-to-head form to suggest taking the Saints to cover the spread on their home deck is the best way to bet on this clash.
St Kilda +7.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
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Brent Daniels 1+ Goal – Has turned into a terrific player and one of the Giants most important. He’s kicked a goal in 13/17 matches this season and is in career-best form.
Jack Higgins 1+ Goal – 35 goals this season for Higgins in what’s been arguably his best year. He’s had 18/21 games of at least one goal.
Stephen Coniglio 25+ Disposals – Pure ball winner and will be in the thick of it all day. 20/23 games of 25+ disposals this season.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 20+ Disposals – Young gun who’s getting better every week. He’s had 14 straight matches with 20 or more disposals.
SGM Odds: $3 at BoomBet
