Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Sha Tin on Sunday, April 5th.
We've got a terrific card of racing at Sha Tin in Hong Kong this Sunday afternoon, featuring the G2 Sprint Cup and the G2 Chairman's Trophy. Check out our race-by-race preview and tips below!
Sha Tin Racing Tips: Sunday, April 5th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (5) Ka Ying Excellent
Best Value: Race 10 - (6) Hall Of Champ
I'm a bit surprised (4) Decisive Twelve is favourite here. I think he's a false favourite and we can take him on. He ran a solid race on debut over this track and distance when beaten less than a length, but he had every chance that day and I thought the horse that won had a bit on him. That horse was (1) Trust Me, and although Decisive Twelve gets a 3.5kg weight swing in his favour today, I'm not sure it's enough to turn the tables. Outside of those, there's a few that can also feature here. (9) Variant Elegance has been trialling well ahead of his debut here and Moreira goes straight on for his first run. (13) Here Comes Ted is the value in the race at $8.00. He's improved with each of his past two runs and he finished off soundly last start to be beaten 1.3L. If he improves once again today it may be enough for him to get his first win on the board and although barrier 1 down the straight isn't normally a positive, there have been three winners from 11 starters from that gate this season. (5) Dream Team can take natural improvement from his debut run and go well again, while (6) Fabulous Eight didn’t have much go right in his first up run from a 49-week break. He can improve sharply.
Value: (13) Here Comes Ted $13
Three horses at the top of the market here and I’m going to lean the way of (3) Victoriam. I think he brings the best form line to this race with a last-start 3rd behind Wellington. Prior to that, he actually finished 0.5L behind (11) Unique Treasure, who is favourite for this race. They both closed off in an identical final 400m time, with Unique Treasure clocking a slightly better 800m-400m split. However, things didn’t go in favour of Victoriam from the wide gate that day, he was posted wide from about the 700m mark. He started $2.40 that day, and Unique Treasure started $164! Now Unique Treasure has since gone on to be beaten less than a length at his next start, so he’s finally finding form at the right time leading into this, but I think if Victoriam can get a decent run from barrier 11, he’s the one to beat. The big plus for Unique Treasure is obviously the good draw in gate 2. Purton takes the ride on (2) Take What You Need who drops from 1400m to 1200m. He’s yet to win in Hong Kong but he rarely runs a bad race, with four placings from his eight starts since arriving. This is the first time Purton has taken the ride on him so that’s obviously a big plus.
The first Group 2 of the day and we see a match race between (1) Beauty Generation and (2) Waikuku here. I think Waikuku is just about a moral, although he’s priced as such at $1.85. I think at this stage of their careers, Waikuku has the edge on Beauty Generation. He’s finished ahead of BG the past four times they have met, which have been Waikuku’s last four races. The only slight query is that Beauty Generation will have the fitness edge on Waikuku given the latter is first up from an 11-week break, but he does get the aid of barrier 1 and with any luck from there I think he’s clearly the horse to beat.
Competitive little race but it looks a nice one for the favourite (5) Ka Ying Excellent. He gets barrier 1 here which is a big plus, as well as Purton on for the first time. He was only rolled by a nose last start after starting from barrier 12 and with even luck here he looks the one to beat. The horse he ran 2nd to last start was Juneau Park, and that horse actually ran 2nd by a short-half-head to (8) Casimiro before that. So by tying that in, I wouldn’t suggest there is a huge amount splitting Ka Ying Excellent and Casimiro. Casimiro failed last start at Happy Valley when stepping up to 1650m but I’d forgive him for that and back to 1400m at Sha Tin today, he can bounce back. (2) Chairman Lo was good in his first run back from a spell, clocking the fastest final 400m of the race to finish 4th. He’ll be better suited second up over 1400m today with Moreira jumping on. He’s yet to win from 13 starts though.
(2) Ka Ying Excellent
$2.40
Tricky sort of race this. I’m going with (8) Helene Leadingstar to make it back-to-back wins. He broke through for a win last start, where he stormed home from back in the field and his two wins prior to that he had legitimate excuses. Three starts ago he finished 5th behind the favourite for this race, (10) Butterfield, beaten 3.3L, but Butterfield got the run of the race in the box seat, while Helene Leadingstar was last on the turn. Then two starts ago he just got caught wide and the rider elected to roll forward, so he was gassed in the straight. With the light weight today, if he’s not too far off them on the turn, he could reel them in at each way odds. Butterfield will once again get a run much like the one he got when he won that race. He carries just 51.5kg here, Joao Moreira jumps on and he’s drawn barrier 1. That’s the best barrier over this course and distance so it’s no surprise to see him favourite and with that sort of run he’ll be hard to beat. (1) Dark Dream had a torrid run last start so forgive him for that and look back to where he finished 2L off the winner in Group 1 company two starts ago. He carries top weight here but Purton gets back aboard for the first time since he rode this horse to victory in this same race last year.
(8) Helene Leadingstar
$7.50
(6) King Dragon really gets his chance to win today. He’s been knocking on the door and this looks a suitable race. Two starts ago he had no luck at all, caught wide the trip before emptying out, and last start he copped a check at the start of the race which just put him on the back foot. He finished off very strongly to grab 3rd. He draws well in barrier 5 today, hopefully he can jump well and if he can settle midfield, he’ll be the one to hold out. (9) Party Everyday started favourite last start but he didn’t get much luck, having to duck and weave through traffic in the early part of the straight. I’m not sure how strong that race was though – I remember commenting on the day that him being favourite told you all you needed to know the depth of the race. Purton sticks with him but he’s drawn wide again in barrier 13. (1) Starship was a winner here five starts ago at this track and distance, and that was in this class. After that he went up to Class 3, and his last run in that class wasn’t bad at all. He’ll appreciate the class drop he receives here and from the good draw there’s no reason he shouldn’t be competitive. Happy to take on (5) Defining Moment.
We see the rocket (8) Aethero return for the first time since suffering defeat in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint back in December. It was a good effort that day, not many three-year-olds could do what he did and that was his first attempt at that level. He was put out for a break immediately after that as he pulled up sore. His first trial back was very ordinary by his standards but his second trial was more like what we’re used to seeing. He’ll need to be at his best because this is a good field, but there’s no Beat The Clock here so it’s a very winnable race for him. (6) Big Party looks the value to me at $18. He started an odds-on favourite last start in the Class 1 on by (1) Hot King Prawn, but the big thing against him here is the weight scale. Hot King Prawn gets an 8kg weight swing on him here! So he’s well and truly up against it but I’m respecting his SP profile and he can feature prominently at big odds. Hot King Prawn is just a terrific horse, who has placed in seven of his eight starts at this track and distance, and 15 of his 16 career starts. He draws the inside and if there are any chinks in Aethero’s armour, Hot King Prawn will be there to win.
I’ve been waiting for (4) Dublin Star to return to the races because he was a moral beat last start, only problem is, the horse who beat him two starts ago lines up again here. That horse was (3) El Jefe, who came from the back of the field to mow them down over the 1000m straight course. He beat Dublin Star by 1.25L and as mentioned, Dublin Star should have won his next start to frank that form. Dublin Star gets a little weight swing in his favour today, but I’m not sure that will be enough to turn the tables, and if Dublin Star begins terribly like he did last start, it could be race over. From the respective good draws and with the market leaning to Dublin Star, I have to go the other way and have El Jefe on top. $4.80 looks a crazy price to me. (11) Eptiwins makes his stable debut for David Hall after previously racing for Peter Ho. I’d suggest he can improve and he looks a bit of value at $12. Moreira hops off (7) True Legend but he ran well on debut and can figure in the finish again.
Two horse race. (4) Ping Hai Bravo justified his short price last start and should do so again here. He cops a 4.5kg weight rise for his win last start which is not easy to overcome, but as we see with so many of these John Size horses, they just continue to improve with each start and continue winning as they progress through the grades. Barrier 8 makes it slightly trickier than when he started from barrier 4 last start but he should be winning again. (7) Ka Ying Legend looks the only danger. He comes into this third up from a spell and draws barrier 1 which is a big help.
Two horses I’ll be on here. If (1) Farhh Above can return to his best following a disappointing showing last start, he’s more than capable of winning this. He was luckless two starts ago when held up for the majority of the straight before flashing home into 4th, but there was no excuse for his poor run last start. He’s been back to the trials where he wasn’t asked to do much at all, and Moreira goes straight on today. Will need to bounce back but certainly can. The other runner I’m keen on at good odds is (6) Hall Of Champ at $17. He’s had no luck in his past two starts and the form line he comes out of behind Ping Hai Bravo last start looks strong. It would be nice if he could get some clear running before the 100m mark today because if he does, he might well be able to feature in the finish.
Value: (6) Hall Of Champ $17
