The first night of Magic Round concludes with the Sea Eagles taking their home game to Suncorp Stadium to take on the Broncos. Manly have been taking this home game to Suncorp Stadium since 2016, and this will be the last, at least for now. Can they go out with a bang, or will the Broncos continue their fine form at Suncorp Stadium?
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, Picklebet are running some great combo Multis in the NRL this weekend. They can be found on the first match of the day under additional markets. Click the image below to get involved in the fun!
NRL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Manly Sea Eagles vs Brisbane Broncos
Suncorp Stadium, Friday 17th May, 8:05pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Sea Eagles once again got off to quick start last week, leading the Dolphins 16-4 after 34 minutes. What transpired over the last 6 minutes of the first half though, is becoming concerning to the Sea Eagles to say the least. Three tries in just four minutes to the Dolphins turned the game on its head before halftime, and despite a couple of signs of life from the Sea Eagles, the Dolphins managed to hold on for a 30-24 win at home. In a massive blow for the Sea Eagles, superstar fullback Tom Trbojevic went down with a hamstring tear and is set to miss the next 7 weeks.
The Broncos meanwhile had no such trouble, dominating the Eels on their way to a 30-14 victory, marking their fourth win over the past five weeks. Despite the impressive scoreline, the Broncos once again struggled with their discipline, making 11 errors, whilst missing a whopping 48 tackles. The Broncos had some tremendous individual performances, with Deine Mariner running for 212 metres and scoring two tries, whilst Reece Walsh ran for 197 metres, set up a try, and scored one of his own.
Match Preview
These teams met just once last season, in Magic Round, with the Broncos running out convincing 32-6 winners. The Broncos closed 11.5-point favourites for that matchup, and the result was never in doubt, with the Broncos putting up the first 32 points in the game, before a late consolation try to Ben Trbojevic. The total closed 46.5 and went well under that number.
This game opened with the Broncos as 5.5-point favourites, but with the losses of Tom Trbojevic for the Sea Eagles, and Reece Walsh for the Broncos confirmed, the Broncos have moved out to 6.5-point favourites. I made the Broncos about an 8.5-point favourite with Tom Trbojevic and Reece Walsh playing, so to get the Broncos shorter seems like decent value.
As for the total, it opened 47.5 and has been bumped up to 48.5. I agree with the move in principle, however with both first-choice halfbacks out I’m concerned by the teams’ attack and whether they can score enough points to push this total over 50. Given this, I’ll steer clear of the game total, although a Sea Eagles under isn’t a bad shout, and it currently sits around 18.5.
With two of the biggest names in the game out, this match is very difficult to handicap. With three spine members for the Broncos missing, I find it almost impossible to back them here, whilst it’s also difficult to behind the Sea Eagles without their most potent attacking weapon. This seems like a stay away game, keep your powder dry for later in the weeks. A small bet on the Broncos in the second half, given how poor the Sea Eagles have been towards the back end of games.
Broncos -3.5 (Second Half)
$1.85 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
T Koula (1+ try) – Koula shifts to fullback with the loss of Trbojevic and watch out for this kid. In two games at fullback to close out the 2023 regular season, Koula had 2 tries, 6 line-breaks, 4 try assists, and ran for over 600 metres. Great chance for a try here.
D Mariner (1+ try) – Mariner seems to score every week, and this is a nice little prop up for the multi.
Broncos (-3.5) 2nd half – The Sea Eagles have been horrible in the second half of most games this season, and I expect the Broncos to pile on the points here.
SGM Odds: $9.12 at Neds
