The weather is warming up and so is the Australian horse racing scene with another cracker this Saturday with big meetings at Caulfield and Randwick, featuring the Group 1 George Main Stakes. Our resident horse racing expert Tim is back once again to bring you some more great horse racing betting tips.
Those that have followed Tim's work, either on Twitter or through his subscription service at Tim's Tips, will know that Tim brings excellent form and great experience in the industry. Tim will be providing previews and analysis of feature races, with regular articles each Saturday and throughout the spring racing season.
GEORGE MAIN STAKES 1600M - WFA GROUP 1
Similar race to the Chelmsford Stakes two weeks ago with the top 3 in the market all coming out of that race and I expect the form to run pretty true here. The forecast is for showers in the lead up to the race so I'm expecting the surface to be somewhere in the Soft range.
PROTECTIONIST comes into this 2nd up and on a path towards the Melbourne Cup. Going to need a couple more races before he starts to show anything. Not convinced he is going terribly well anyway.
PORNICHET was well backed at both of his starts this preparation and while his first up run in the Warwick Stakes was very encouraging, his effort two weeks ago was slightly disappointing. Some questions over the ride but I thought he raced flat nonetheless. Comes into this 3rd up which is when he began to peak last prep and he should run well. Not well enough to win in my opinion.
HOOKED was met with some support first up when winning the Group 2 Tramway Stakes over 1400m. His trainer John Thompson said he would clearly take benefit from the run and he was expecting him to improve significantly. His 2nd up record isn't exactly flattering and he steps up in grade here to tackle some of the country's premier milers. He's come back well but needs to improve again.
MORIARTY is looking for longer still and probably needs another run to reach somewhere near his peak fitness. Not going very well though and he is a level below his stablemates.
KERMADEC is one of my favourite horses going round and one of the top horses this country has got at the moment but he has also cost me plenty throughout his career. Not always his fault as he's received a couple of shocking rides in his time, and Glen Boss' effort in the Chelmsford was pretty dismal. Draws absolutely perfectly in barrier 5 here so should get a dream run, and he did incredibly well to stick on for 2nd after travelling 3 wide on pace for the entire race last start. Loves the Randwick mile and he comes into this ready to peak. Clear top pick and today should be his day.
SWEYNESSE returned with a promising effort in the Tramway behind Hooked where he just died on his run at the 200m mark. Comes into this 2nd up and with improved fitness he should be in the mix here given he has performed well against these horses over 1400m-1600m previously. Might be looking for 2000m but he is drawn to get a charmed run and Godolphin are going okay at the minute! He is a smokey at big odds.
HAURAKI also returned in the Tramway but was well beaten. Found his best over 2000m and beyond last preparation and that will also be the case this time in so look to back him after another run or two.
ROYAL DESCENT finished 3rd in the Chelmsford Stakes last start behind stablemate Kermadec. She had a good run in the race but was still comfortably beaten by Kermadec who travelled wide on pace for the entire race. Ultra consistent over the Randwick Mile where she has never missed a place and that looks to be where she will finish once again here.
LUCIA VALENTINA returned in fine form first up when streaking home between runners from the back of the field. That is pretty standard for her when she runs fresh but she does have a case of second up syndrome, having never placed from 4 attempts when second up from a spell. She is heading towards the Cox Plate but that stat is a worry and against the country's best milers she would have to be at her best to win. Place chance.
KIRRAMOSA has returned superbly this time in and both her runs this prep have been outstanding. She has finished 1.4L away from the winner both first up over 1200m and second up over 1400m. Makes the step up to 1600m which will suit her down to the ground, and while she is looking for 2000m she is definitely a place hope. Keep an eye on her going forward!
Summary
KERMADEC gets a perfect chance to win here and has absolutely no excuses. He was a moral beaten last start when travelling 3 wide all race before sticking on to finish 2nd, but he won't have that problem today from barrier 5. He is set to get a lovely run in the race and should be peaking 3rd up from a spell. Flies over the 1600m at Randwick and he rates as a clear top selection here. Behind him you can expect ROYAL DESCENT to run well and finish in the placings once again, while PORNICHET raced flat 2nd up but did improve 3rd up last prep. KIRRAMOSA is flying and the step up to 1600m sees her as a place chance while SWEYNESSE is the roughie that must be kept under consideration at double figure odds for Godolphin.
1st KERMADEC ($2.80 at Bet365)
2nd ROYAL DESCENT ($4.60 at William Hill)
3rd SWEYNESSE ($15 at Sportsbet)
4th PORNICHET ($7.00 at Ladbrokes)
* prices correct at time of publishing
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
