Welcome to our horse racing preview and betting tips for racing at Sandown on Wednesday, September 9th.
An interesting card at the Sandown Hillside track for midweek racing leading up to the Makybe Diva Stakes on Saturday. The track is rated a good 4 and the rail is out 10 metres.
Trent Crebbin has previewed every race on the card below!
Sandown Racing Tips: Wednesday, September 9th
Best Bet: Race 3 - (1) Aysar
Best Value: Race 8 - (3) Copper Fox
(4) Oceanography clearly looks the horse to beat here. He debuted in a strong race at Bendigo, only finishing 2L off a few handy ones. They then went looking for an easy kill at Warnambool and he should’ve won easily but got completely boxed in from barrier 1 and lost all momentum, flashing late to just miss. John Allen jumps aboard here; I’ve spoken about the Maher/Eustace camp of late and from barrier 5 he should get every chance stepping up to a suitable distance of 1600m. (6) Steel Skies might be the danger, especially if the rail is hot early. He raced a bit greenly late last start after going too hard and getting tired, but if he’s allowed a few cheap splits he could be hard to run down. (8) Salto Angel has to be respected for the Olly/O’Brien combo. The horse was okay on debut and you’d think the step up in trip would help this Sacred Falls filly, but Oceanography is the one they all have to beat and at the $4 I think he’s worthy of a gamble.
Tricky race with three of the main chances coming out of a 1400m Lakeside race. (8) Starelle started favourite there but could only manage 5th. She was first up after 12 weeks there so you’d expect plenty of improvement to come, especially on a good track. (1) Succeed Indeed was the eye catcher that race, getting back and running home strongly for 3rd. Lachie King does replace Dwayne Dunn which is a negative, and she’s still slightly worse off at the weights even after the claim. She also maps back again from a widish barrier so does look short enough despite producing the flashing light run. (4) Perfect World got caught wide there and pressed on to sit outside the leader in a moderately run race. Some might overplay that, but I thought she had every chance once in a nice spot and does draw the outside here, so tactics will be interesting as she was ridden cold the start before. A few of these come from synthetic form and the pick of those would be (2) Anitra who started hard in the market against a couple of handy horses in Milton Park and A Pinch of Luck last start. I’m trusting the SP and jockey/trainer combo here with Starelle who should derive plenty of benefit from her first up run and looks to get a better map than a couple of her rivals.
Had this pegged as nearly a race in two between (1) Aysar and Jenni’s Rainbow, who has been scratched, leaving Aysar a dominant favourite and very hard to beat. He got back on debut but ran on strongly over 1000m, before settling closer from a good gate up to 1300m and blowing them away, winning by 3L. He did get a perfect run that day but maps nicely again from barrier 4 just off the pace. He’s jumped out well leading in and with a few dangers either drawn wide or first up and looking for further, Aysar should be going very close. I’d expect him to start closer to odds on here. The debut win of (5) Endanger was good, albeit beating a very average group of maidens. The time wasn’t anything flash, but it was visually impressive. (7) The Brumby does look the one at odds that could upset. His last run was behind Instant Celebrity in Adelaide who is a handy horse, but he was the beneficiary there of a great, ground saving ride along the rails and from the wide barrier here I’d expect him to be right back in the field and needing to loop them. (11) Poland was green on debut at Bendigo and whilst that race is a bit thin form wise, he can improve.
Awful and open staying race. With absolutely zero confidence I’ll side with (1) Blandford Lad who comes off that bog Valley track. We saw with Kentucky Tornado that can be an issue, but at least Blandford Lad is $9.50 not $2.50. He’s never won on a good track which is another issue and draws wide so will need a good ride. If Maskiell rides him as he did when winning at this T/D three starts back by putting him into the race, then he’s a big chance. (3) Upswing needs to see out 2400m but is on the up. His win over High Emocean over 2000m at Werribee is certainly good enough, but he does jump up in distance here. (2) Tysonic keeps racing well for the Maher/Eustace camp. She meets (6) Patricia Anne 2.5kg worse for a 0.2L defeat. Patricia Anne will come across and likely lead this field, whereas Tysonic was the beneficiary of a good, positive ride last start to sit outside her.
Giving (5) Vegas Knight another chance. He was my best value of the day last start and did run 3rd at healthy odds, but the query there was staying at 1400m. He gets to 1600m here which he’s been crying out for after hitting a big flat spot in the straight before picking up again late, and it’s hard to see him missing a place here 3rd up. (6) Dirty Deeds got the job done last start, but Moor replaces the suspended Jamie Kah who has been owning these midweek meetings. He’s probably a length or two better on wet ground and coming back to a good surface isn’t ideal. (4) Savvy Lad keeps threatening to do something and whilst he’s had excuses at both starts this prep, he hasn’t exactly been knocking the door down.
Good little race but a tricky one to assess. The starting point has to be (3) Lunakorn who won her first 3 last prep before running 4th on a heavy track. She brings an outstanding SP profile and has a big finish on her, but she’s never raced below 1200m so the 1000m here looks a query. (9) Peggy Selene draws the carpark here and steps up to open class. She’s been racing well and getting the right runs against her 3yo counterparts but carries 58kg here in a tougher race and looks short enough. (14) Oh Please Dianna looks worthy of a bet. This 4yo mare has only had 4 starts and they read well for this race. She should’ve won by about 4L on debut as the $1.80 favourite, having no luck in the straight, before beating Finesse Tess and Flirting to break her maiden, the former of which has been taking on some handy 3yo city races on a Saturday. Oh Please Dianna then went to a group 3 and was beaten less than 2L by Ms Catherine, before an end of prep run down the straight. Her recent trial at Morphettville was very good, sitting 3 wide on the speed there but winning comfortably under a tight hold. She gets in on the minimum and draws nicely in barrier 6 and with knocks on the two ahead of her in the market I think she’s a good price at $7. I’m also going to have something small on (1) Iknewshewasmine who looks suited back to 1000m. Her run two back at Caulfield behind Propelle is solid form for this, and I just don’t think she runs 1200m so you can forgive her last start, which was also her first go on synthetic. She’s 2/3 at this track and distance and has 3 wins from 7 starts on good tracks. She does draw a touch awkwardly in barrier 11, but with a 3kg claimer on board I’d expect them to go handlebars down and try to run these off their feet. At $26/7.5 she’s a big price.
Value: (1) Iknewshewasmine $26
(14) Oh Please Dianna
$7.00
Not a race I’m particularly interested in. (3) Elite Legacy could bounce back after a disappointing run last start down the straight. He won at this T/D & class two back. (11) Sapphire Crown is lightly raced and has been thereabouts over the short course. (9) Lesage is an interesting runner. She’s definitely good enough on her day but did take a while to hit her straps last prep. If she runs up to her Canterbury win beating Adelong, she’ll go very close, but she was beaten in a Class 2 at Newcastle when first up last prep. (5) Propelle finally got another win on the board last start. She might be able to go on with it now, although she does lose Jamie Kah for 3kg apprentice Alana Kelly. (1) Mister Mogul is racing well but all his best runs are down the straight. I was going to tip Pravro at around $34 but he’s been scratched, so for the sake of a tip I’ll side with Elite Legacy.
Very tricky race, with plenty of speed on paper. I’ve been on the wrong side of (3) Copper Fox all prep, but he does look a big price here. His two failures this prep have been on heavy ground, which he simply doesn’t handle. Either side of those two runs he’s produced a slashing 2nd over 1100m and an easy victory on the synthetic, with the 4th placed horse Music Addition winning the synthetic sprint final since. Copper Fox should be rock hard fit, a strong 1400m should be no issue, and whilst he’s likely worse than midfield, he should get the race shape to finish well. (2) Think ‘n’ Fly resumes here and is the class of the field. He took on some good races behind Adelaide Ace and Nonconformist last prep and has jumped out well. (11) Rich Hips was awful last start as my best bet after being truck loaded late. Not sure what went wrong but if she brings her previous form or runs up to that $1.90 SP she’s right in the game. Olly does jump off to ride Think ‘n’ Fly, but she doesn’t lose much with Zahra aboard. Having something on Copper Fox, especially if they’re making ground and each way if you’re so inclined at around $7 the place.
Good race to finish with a few different form lines to stack up. I’m going to be playing it safe and backing what are in my opinion, the best leader and best closer. The leader is (8) Lord Bouzeron who comes here off a freshen up. His win first up in Australia was outstanding on a wet track, running them into the ground and winning by 4.5L. His 2nd run whilst running 3rd, beaten 4.25L wasn’t terrible, only finishing 2.25L off Persan. He’s had a let up, drops in trip to 1800m which I’ll admit doesn’t look ideal but what does look ideal is the map. On paper, he is clearly the only leader in this race. From what I can tell, none of these horses have led in their life, at least not recently. He gets complete control, should have residual fitness, and has won on a firm 2 before so I doubt a dry track will hamper his chances too much. If Will Price rides this correctly and makes the right decisions based on the map I have, the horse should mathematically be winning. If he doesn’t or the horse performs very poorly, the closer could be (6) Super Girl. I didn’t think she’d be good enough to win 1st up at 1500m on a staying path, but she got there and knocked off a fairly handy mare in West Wind. 2nd up last prep this horse won by 3.25L, with the handy Hezafox in 3rd. She then went on to run a very good 4th in a Warnambool Cup behind Too Close The Sun, and potentially an even better 3rd in an Andrew Ramsden behind Oceanex and King Of Leogrance. She’s a stayer on the rise and will be winning a big race this prep. The 1800m here suits, she will get back in run but has a lot of upside and a touch of class. (4) Don’t Doubt Dory just keeps winning and was really the only horse to make ground at the Lakeside last start. She can settle fairly close in run from the inside and is hard to knock, whilst (5) Approach Discreet is another in a rich vein of form but has been given two Olly peaches and this is another step up. They look the 4 winning hopes, but I’m going to be backing Lord Bouzeron purely off the map, and having something on Super Girl who is in for a big prep.
Also backing: (6) Super Girl $4.20
