Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for selected races at Sandown, Canterbury and Belmont on Wednesday, May 9th.
We’ve taken a look at all three cards and selected the races we’re keenest to bet into, and you can find our tips and comments on each of those below.
The track is rated a Good 4 at Sandown, a Heavy 8 at Canterbury and a Soft 6 at Belmont.
Best Bet: Belmont Race 5 #5 Thunderplump
Best Value Bet: Canterbury Race 7 #4 Allcash
Sandown Racing Tips
RACE 4
(2) Scoliaro goes up in weight here and returns to a Good track after racing on Heavy ground at her past two outings, but she might be able to win again here despite those factors. She ran 2nd to Jamaican Rain two starts ago, who then came out and won again last weekend, and followed that up with a win at Ballarat last start in BM78 company. Drops back to BM70 grade today which is why she cops a big weight, but she’s one of the classier horses in this race and faces a number of horses coming from BM58 and BM64 company. Can win again at $4.80. (1) Chatuchak looks ready to win but has to lump 61kg here. The value looks to be (10) Light On Ice at $23 – don’t let her go around without something small on. She’s won three from five when first up from a spell.
TIP: (2) Scoliaro / (10) Light On Ice EW
RACE 5
Willing to forgive (10) Tahi for his first up failure where he choked down. He was a pretty solid favourite on that occasion and had trialled well leading into the race. Giving him another chance here because if he does run to his best, he’ll be very hard to beat at $4.40. There’s two at big odds that look value chances. (6) Comrade Ned returns after a trip to Wagga last start where he was blocked the entire straight. Back to Melbourne now, where he showed last preparation that he’s capable of winning in this sort of company. Third up, Williams on and drawn well. $10 looks appealing. (2) The Card Players may have finished 13th and 15th in his past two starts but he’s going a whole lot better than that suggests. First up at Caulfield he went to the line untested after being held up the entire straight, while last start at Morphettville he got a long way back from a very wide barrier and was never a winning hope. I wouldn’t rule him out at $16.
TIP: (10) Tahi / (6) Comrade Ned EW
Canterbury Racing Tips
RACE 4
(3) Braces rarely puts two wins together but he gets his chance in the wet conditions today. He won last start at Warwick Farm on a Soft track, taking his wet track record to 15 starts for three wins and nine minor placings. His wet form is substantially better than his dry track form, so on the heavy going today he looks a legitimate winning chance at $6.50. (2) Carluca was luckless first up at Warwick Farm and had trialled well on two occasions leading into that race. He won over this track and distance at his final start last campaign and he’s another that handles the wet ground. His second up record suggests he should improve today and that makes him a sneaky winning hope at $12.
TIP: (3) Braces / (2) Carluca EW
RACE 5
There doesn’t look to be a great deal to this race, meaning (7) Mollyfied gets her chance second up. She was caught three-wide without cover on the speed first up in a reasonable race but gets a jockey change and a good barrier today. She’s placed in both starts on wet ground and the form out of her only heavy-track run has turned out pretty good. $4.70 seems a reasonable price. (5) Filomena’s Grace fits the right profile for mine and represents a bit of value at $10. She’s still only lightly raced with seven starts to her name and comes into this second up after being narrowly beaten first up at Nowra. She’s had one start on heavy ground for one win, gets a positive jockey change today and the booking of Hyeronimus suggests to me they might try and lead from the wide gate.
TIP: (7) Mollyfied / (5) Filomena’s Grace EW
RACE 7
One horse of interest here and that’s (4) Allcash for Chris Waller and Brenton Avdulla. This horse only battled in a low race at Kembla first up but he ticks a few boxes today. He jumps straight up to 1900m and the last time he ran at this track and distance he won, which was also on wet ground. He’s clearly a mudlark – he’s had five starts on soft ground for two wins and two placings, while he’s yet to win from 28 goes on Good ground. He should absolutely relish this track today. He always needs his first up run, should improve second up and gets a major jockey change. Pretty keen at $7.50 each way.
TIP: (4) Allcash EW
Belmont Racing Tips
RACE 2
There’s a few short-priced favourites going around at Belmont today and this is one of them. (1) Finally French has no excuses today and should just be winning this. He’s a talented horse who should arguably be undefeated from his four starts but after winning on debut, has continued to find one better. He bumps into Shania Style again today, who beat him last start, but he had to go a long way back from the barrier that day and gets a 3kg weight swing on that galloper today. $1.80 is about right and I expect him to be winning. If you want to boost your odds, I’d suggest doubling him up with Nordic King in Race 4, who is $1.70 and looks a complete moral.
TIP: (1) Finally French
RACE 3
He’s a big tease (3) Montagna but he has a few things in his favour today. From nine starts, he’s won one and run 2nd on six occasions. His only win came on a soft track, where he bolted in by over 3L. He gets a soft track once again today but the biggest thing in his favour is the fact he’s had a couple of starts at 2200m and 2000m in preparation for today’s race over 2100m. His biggest market rival is (1) Fast As The Wind, who is untested over the trip and comes off an 1800m win. Hopefully it’s Montagna’s day to shine at $3.
TIP: (3) Montagna
RACE 5
There doesn’t look to be a great deal of talent in this race and there’s every chance that (5) Thunderplump could be the best horse here. Her debut preparation included a 2nd placing and a win before failing at Pinjarra and she returns from a spell here having trialled well. I don’t think she’s got a whole lot to beat and the stable wouldn’t bring her here if she wasn’t up to it. Just has to handle the soft track but at $3.45 I’m happy to take that gamble.
TIP: (5) Thunderplump
RACE 7
Big field to finish the day here but it wouldn’t surprise me to see (3) Song Of Vincent try to run them off their legs. He won first up at Pinjarra and didn’t get a whole lot of luck last start over 1200m here, but up to 1400m third up with an inside gate, we could see him bounce back. His only start on soft ground was a failure but he’s certainly bred to handle the wet and I’d be taking $4.20 about him rather than $3.20 about (1) Freo.
TIP: (3) Song Of Vincent
