Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the midweek meeting at Sale on Wednesday, November 15th, where we have an eight-race card.
Given this time last week we were wedged between Melbourne Cup Day and Oaks Day, the racing on offer here is considerably poor, with night meetings at Pakenham on Thursday and Moonee Valley on Friday sure to have had an impact on field sizes and quality.
Nevertheless, we are on a Good 3 track with the rail in the true position, and we have betting tips and comments for all eight races below.
SALE RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 Wenner
Best Value: Race 3 Smoking Bullet
Race 1
Dreadful way to kick things off, highlighted by the fact we’ve got a 19-start maiden at $5.50. This race is a complete “skip” job, but if having a bet I’d go with SOLAS, who has the most career wins in the field and was only 1.1L off the winner in this grade last start. Draws favourably and steps back up in trip, which should both suit. FIREFREE is the 19-start maiden but he finds a winnable race in BM64 grade here on the back of two solid minor placings. He was 0.9L off BARACHINO last start and gets a 3.5kg weight swing so he has his chance to turn the tables. THE ULTIMATUM has a good record at the distance. Terrible race and wouldn’t bet with someone else’s money!
TIP: Solas
Race 2
I thought POET’S CORNER was the one to be with here but the market suggests otherwise because he’s been $1.90 out to $2.30 this morning, with support coming for BOOKBUILD, SNOWS BRO and PROCEDURAL. Poet’s Corner broke his maiden two starts ago at Bairnsdale, and backed it up with a solid 5th placing behind Tamasa, who should have bolted in at Flemington on Saturday. I think that form is worth following and with the run at 1400m under his belt, he should be tough to beat. BOOKBUILD bolted in first up at Ararat over 1100m, before running 3rd at Kyneton and then a luckless 8th at Moonee Valley last start. This race is certainly easier than what he faced at Moonee Valley, but the step up to 1400m could be a slight query. The market support this morning suggests he could be the one to beat. SNOWS BRO and PROEDURAL both come off maiden victories and any further market support should be respected.
TIP: Poet’s Corner
Race 3
Robert Smerdon sends one runner to Sale today and it’s WHISTLER BOWL on debut here. He comes off a recent trial win and tackles the 1400m first up so he must be pretty forward. The big query for mine is the booking of Samuel Payne to ride, but you never really know with this stable. The market will tell you everything you need to know pre-race. Interested in SMOKING BULLET at each way odds, first up for 514 days. He’s only had the one start and has since been transferred to a new trainer, and the early trickle of money for him suggests he could be wound up to run a good race here. EL CHORILLO can improve on his first up run, while RIPPLEBROOK has run 2nd at both starts so far over 1100m and now jumps to the 1400m.
TIP: Whistler Bowl / Smoking Bullet EW
Race 4
Quite keen on the chances of PERSIAN EMPIRE here, third up from a spell and up to 1700m. First up he ran 3rd behind Poet’s Corner (which could turn out to be reasonable form today), before running 2nd over 1400m last start. Gets a very soft run from barrier 2 and finds a very winnable race. I like the booking of Noel Callow for the Busuttin/Young stable. There’s been good money for STATELY BOY who has just been battling but did improve last start. Drops in trip here, gets the senior rider back on and a good barrier. BRANDO next best.
TIP: Persian Empire
Race 5
When looking at the race last night I was keen on WENNER, and looking back at the market this morning, it seems as though he’s the one to be on because he’s been absolutely smashed in betting. He had a very solid first campaign, winning two races before tackling a strong race prior to his spell. He resumed with a solid enough run at Mornington, settling back in the field and running home fairly. It’s typically hard to make ground at Mornington and he was steadied near the line so the performance was probably better than it looks on paper. Straight up to 1500m second up now, draws the inside barrier and looks very hard to beat. ROSEBERRY STREET looks the obvious danger. Happy to take on CARUSELLE who looks very short given her record on Good ground, though there is only the five runners going around.
TIP: Wenner
Race 6
I see this as a pretty clear top three here with TRANQUIL MISS, CATALYST FIRE and DANCING HARE. Tranquil Miss placed in his first two starts this campaign before finishing around midfield in a much harder race at Flemington last week. Drops back heavily in class here and if he were to repeat something like his run two starts ago he’d go very close here. It looks a very interesting move from Tasmanian trainer Scott Brunton to bring Catalyst Fire to this race. His strike rate in Tasmania is nothing short of excellent, and I doubt he’d be bringing this horse here if it wasn’t going to win. Dancing Hare has had two solid runs over the mile at Bendigo and rates highly up to the 1700m here. I’m keen on backing the Tasmanian Catalyst Fire, and happy to save on both Tranquil Miss and Dancing Hare.
TIP: Catalyst Fire
Race 7
CLUB TROPICANA looked the best bet of the day so it’s a shame scratchings have brought the field down to just four runners and his price down to $1.60. He resumed with a strong performance behind Written In Stone first up at Bendigo, and that horse looks particularly progressive. The Ellerton/Zahra and Symons combination is very noticeable at today’s lowly meeting.
TIP: Club Tropicana
Race 8
Once again, a small field but a competitive affair. RUTH’S BOY broke through at Seymour two starts ago and went close last start at Cranbourne in a Class 1. She’ll be right up on the pace from barrier 4 and should be in this for a long way. The big early money was for TELL THE TRUTH who is first up today. Last prep this horse did all its racing over 1600m-2000m, so I found it a touch surprising to see it well-backed first up over the short course. It must be going very well to warrant such support, so I’ll be at least having a saver bet on today. GAUTENG GIRL has finished in the top two at her last four starts, including a win at Echuca in a BM58. She backed that up with a good run for 2nd last start in this grade at Kilmore. From the gate they may have to drop her back and settle at the rear. FROMPARIS WITHLOVE has had the two runs back from a spell now, the latest of which was behind Written In Stone. Steps up to 1200m now and her best would win this. Hard to split those four. Leaning towards Ruth’s Boy at the prices with a saver on Tell The Truth.
TIP: Ruth’s Boy
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
