Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, September 8th, featuring the four Group 2 races on the nine-race card!
The track is currently rated a Soft 6, with a high chance of more rain on the way. The rail moves to the True position and I think we’ll see it play pretty evenly throughout the day. Expect horses to be getting off the fence though.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. You can alo tune in to Episode 50 of the BYB Podcast, where Tim dissects every feature race at both Moonee Valley and Rosehill!
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 #7 Highway Sixtysix
Best Value: Race 6 #4 Performer
RACE 1
Not overly keen to get inolved early here. Might just be a race to watch and learn about the track pattern. (2) Pandemonium goes on top in any case. Her run first up under 63kg at Canterbury was sound and she drops to 58.5kg today. She’s won two of her three previous second up runs and can probably find the lead today, which is no bad thing at Rosehill. My slight concern is if the ground gets very wet. Waller has three runners engaged here and you can’t discount any of them. (4) Impulsive won first up at Newcastle and comes to town with the blinkers going on for the first time. Bowman booked to ride which is a solid lead. (5) Miss Shanti resumes for the first time since finishing 5th in the Queensland Oaks. We saw a couple of Queensland Oaks runners, namely Another Dollar, return in terrific style last weekend so with McDonald on board, Miss Shanti could run a bold race fresh at double figure odds. (1) Mandylion has been running well in this sort of grade at every start this prep. The wet track certainly enhances her chances. She’ll be up on speed and looks a solid place chance once again.
RACE 2
Not normally very keen to bet into the Highway Handicaps but I really do think (7) Highway Sixtysix looks very hard to beat here. When he raced two weeks ago, my comment about him was this: “I’d be having (8) Highway Sixtysix comfortably on top if it weren’t for the fact he’s got synthetic hoof filler for the first time, which suggests he’s probably had feet issues since that first up win at Randwick in July. He’s had seven weeks off since then and a trial in between so there are question marks about his soundness. If he were completely sound, I think he’d be winning.” He ran 3rd in that race, beaten 0.3L, and he comes to the races today with the synthetic hoof filler off. Drawn wide but McDonald sticks with him and he’s clearly on top. $3.20 looks a reasonable price to me. (12) Handle The Truth resumed with a strong with at Goulburn but his form is hardly anything to shout about – his only other win came at Wagga. (4) My Blue Jeans is already a Highway winner last preparation and comes into today second up. Also has wet track form on the board so could be the value at $9.00.
Value: (4) My Blue Jeans $9.00 BetEasy
(7) Highway Sixtysix
$3.20
RACE 3
One of the more fascinating races of the day! (1) Don’t Give A Damn is a horse I really have a lot of time for and he’s up to better races than this but he’s got a huge task ahead of him with 64kg on his back. We’ve seen this stable produce runners with big weights and they’ve gone very close, but only one horse has won carrying 64kg in Sydney metro racing in the last 18 years. History is certainly against him so at $3.00, is he worth taking the risk? My rule of thumb is generally to try and avoid horses with that sort of weight, especially when the next closest is carrying 3.5kg less. (5) Renewal looks the obvious danger. He ran 3rd to Don’t Give A Damn last start and gets a 3kg weight swing today. It’s an interesting one – I don’t think the 3kg swing will be enough to turn the tables but the fact the other horse carries such a big weight might be the thing that brings him down. (6) Level Eight ran 2nd to Paret last time out and Paret has won three straight now. This horse has placed in 10 of his 11 runs on wet ground so $16 looks a reasonable each way bet. (9) Omineca, (10) Merovee and (12) Andaz are all first up from the Waller yard so it’s important to keep an eye on the market. (11) Volpe is the blowout at $26. He carried 66kg first up at Goulburn and has a good second up record, including a win here.
(6) Level Eight to place
$4.40 ($16 win)
RACE 4
Intriguing race for the three-year-olds here. (1) The Autumn Sun is undefeated in three career starts, including victory in the Group 1 JJ Atkins in QLD back in June. He’s had two trials to prepare for this, including a very stylish effort behind Winx. The concern here is 1500m first up at his first start as a three-year-old. The $2.00 on offer is pretty short. I’ve got him on top but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him drift out to around $2.50. Hugh Bowman takes the ride on stablemate (10) Dealmaker, who worked home strongly first up. Expect similar tactics from barrier 8 here and I wouldn’t be shocked to see her roll the more fancied stablemate. She’s a $14 chance. (5) Master Ash beat (6) Danawi by a length over 1300m at Randwick last start, and Danawi then came out and won his next start. I’d be taking Master Ash over Danawi once again here and if you’re looking for a solid each way bet, Master Ash could be the way to go at $8.00. (3) Irukandji should improve significantly second up and up to 1500m here.
Value: (10) Dealmaker $14 BetEasy
RACE 5
Another great contest here with the weights making this pretty fascinating. (1) Trapeze Artist is currently favourite for The Everest and resumes with 61kg on his back today. He’s trialled twice leading into today and although the trials only seemed fair, he didn’t have the blinkers on. He gets them on for raceday. First up at 1300m on wet ground is some query for him but he’s a very classy animal and you’d expect him to go very close regardless of the little negatives. (4) D’Argento is second up so has fitness on his side. He finished 3L off Winx in the Winx Stakes and drops from 1400m to 1300m today. Not sure that’s ideal but he looks versatile enough to win over this sort of distance. He gets 5kg off Trapeze Artist and he’s undefeated on Soft ground. With the god draw, I’m siding with him here. (8) Siege Of Quebec was very well backed to win first up but sat four-wide without cover for the whole race. His effort to still finish 2nd behind Le Romain was enormous. With only 53kg here I wouldn’t be underestimating him at all and I’ll definitely be having something on.
RACE 6
(3) Graff was utterly dominant last start when winning by 2.5L in the San Domenico Stakes over 1100m here two weeks ago. Trainer Kris Lees described him as the best three-year-old he’s ever had which is a pretty serious wrap. Big difference today with barrier 13 as opposed to barrier 1 last start. I suspect they will drag him back from that gate. No doubt over the horse’s ability but that barrier is the concern against some pretty smart horses. (1) Zousain bolted in first up last prep in Brisbane. He went on to run 2nd to The Autumn Sun in the Group 1 JJ Atkins over a mile and returns here on the back of two good trials. Barrier 8 should give him the right run to win this and James McDonald takes the ride. (4) Performer was caught wide without cover behind Graff first up and is likely to settle much further forward than Graff today. Drawn barrier 1, he really should be able to show us what the hype has been about all along. He appeals as the value in the race at $8.00. (8) Long Leaf was huge first up in Melbourne – big question marks over that form though. Ladbrokes are offering a good promo for this race – paid out as a winner for running 1st or 2nd (max bet $100).
Value: (4) Performer $8.00 BetEasy
RACE 7
I’ve been against (6) Champagne Cuddles plenty of times but I’m on her side today. All three career wins have come first up from a spell and she gets conditions to suit today, while a few of her opposition have a few things against them. The 1200m is likely to suit Champagne Cuddles better than most and her efforts in Group 1 company up in Brisbane were terrific, without a great deal of luck. Barrier 1 is problematic today but James McDonald takes over the reigns and that’s a hugely positive jockey change. (1) Daysee Doom might find 1200m a touch sharp but she looks a decent each way bet with $2.60 on offer for her to place. She loves this track with five wins and three placings from 10 starts at Rosehill. She’s also got a good first up record and the wet track won’t pose any problems for her. (2) Formality was disappointing last prep but her form behind the likes of Merchant Navy last year is eye-catching. She’s trialled well in Sydney leading into this. (3) Invincibella another good each way chance first up.
(6) Champagne Cuddles
$3.10
RACE 8
It’s hard to be against (11) Soothing here after a completely dominant win last start at Randwick, where she won by just under 5L. She’s been kept up to the mark with a soft trial since that win. James McDonald keeps the ride and if she repeats that sort of performance she’ll be winning this. If you don’t want to take the $2.30 for her to win, then perhaps the $7.00/$2.40 each way for (4) She Knows might appeal. Her run last start was enormous when she carried the full 63.5kg over 1100m here. She’s placed in all three starts at this track and distance and the wet ground won’t worry her. Bowman keeps the ride and she’ll be right amongst the placegetters. If Soothing fails, she’s probably the winner. (7) Suncraze is a horse I have plenty of time for and he’s never finished outside the top two from four first up runs and three runs at the distance. He meets a couple of smart ones today though.
RACE 9
Impossible way to finish off. (1) High Mist is a big price but is set to get the wet track he desperately needs to win. Bowman jumps off (4) Estikhraaj and takes the mount on (7) Zourkhan who looks to be the best chance for the Waller stable. He ran well first up and has since been given a quiet trial during the week in preparation for this. He should be right in the mix. (8) Letter To Juliette won first up before (14) Royal Stamp turned the tables last start. I think Letter To Juliette can turn the tables back in her favour third up today with the small weight swing. (16) Keep Up isn’t hopeless at huge odds if he manages to gain a run.
Value: (7) Zourkhan $7.00 UBET
(8) Letter To Juliette
$5.50
