Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Tancred Stakes Day at Rosehill on Saturday, March 31st.
The Group 1 Tancred Stakes (formerly the BMW) is the feature race of the day along with the Group 1 Vinery Stud Stakes for the fillies. We have nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail in the 4m position.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. Don't miss out on listening to Episode 28 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where Tim previews the action from Caulfield and Rosehill, after one of the all-time punting sob stories to end the day at Ascot on Good Friday!
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 8 #4 Interlocuter EW
Best Value: Race 6 #6 Auvray
RACE 1
Very difficult race to start off here with a big field of two-year-olds, so won’t be a big investment here. I liked the run of (5) Akkadian in Melbourne last start when making good ground in the slower part of the track on a day when the Flemington rail was extremely advantageous. In just about every career start this horse has encountered some form of bad luck, so if he can get a bit of luck and a clear run from barrier 9 he could run home well at $8.50. (11) Sweet Ava is knocking on the door, with a good last-start run behind Sunlight, who started close enough to favourite for the Golden Slipper. $6.50 is about right in a race like this. (1) Spin ran 3rd to Written By last start but was beaten 4L. The blinkers come off as he steps up to 1400m today and Kerrin McEvoy interestingly jumps off to ride the stablemate (2) Legislation. (13) Nasaayim stuck on well in the quicksand at Flemington last start and isn’t hopeless here, while (6) Osorno and (15) Onthetake ran the quinella at Newcastle last start and have claims. Wide open.
TIP: (5) Akkadian EW / (11) Sweet Ava EW
RACE 2
The interesting runner here is (1) One Foot In Heaven who is making his Australian debut here and has already been $7 into $3.70. This horse ran 2nd in Group 3 company in France over this distance first up last prep, before finishing down the track in the Arc, which is obviously as good a form race as you can get. He’s had three trials leading into his debut for Waller here, and finds a very suitable race to kick off in given it’s a set weights race. Looks very hard to beat. (7) Maurus could be one at big odds to throw in. He was in an impossible position first up at Canberra. His second up record is good and his record at this track is also very good. Draws well and certainly isn’t the worst at $23. (2) Mackintosh ran well last start when he stepped up to 2000m sharply after resuming over 1300m. With that run under his belt he’ll be much better off fitness-wise, so with McEvoy on and a good barrier he should be competitive once again. (9) Liapari has appreciated the step up to 2000m in his past two starts and looks to be closing in on a win.
TIP: (1) One Foot In Heaven / (9) Liapari EW
RACE 3
Very competitive race. (11) New Universe is a serial pest and was sacked long ago but today might be the day to give him another chance at $6. While I doubt he should be close to favourite, his last-start run put the writing on the wall. He zoomed home along the inside of the track and was in front immediately after the post. He’ll relish the step up to 1200m here – a distance he’s won three times from five attempts at. (4) Burning Passion was good first up in a strong race. That was on soft ground (which he typically goes better on), but his second up record is outstanding and he draws softly in barrier 1. Looks a suitable race at $7.50. (3) Kaepernick beat (1) Dothraki two starts ago and despite the rise in weight can go close again. Dothraki won on protest last start and will run his usual honest race. (5) Oxford Poet, (12) Spright and even (13) Bolero King have claims at odds. Taking on (6) Nieta today – I sacked her after last start and she can win without me.
TIP: (11) New Universe / (4) Burning Passion
RACE 4
Nice race. (4) Prompt Response goes on top for me here. She was terrific when winning first up and in her two starts since then, she hasn’t had a lot go right. Barrier 1 didn’t do her any favours two starts ago, and last start she was trapped wide all the way in the Coolmore Classic. From barrier 4 she’s much better placed here and if she hasn’t taken too much harm from the hard run, she can turn the tables here at $5. I think the value in the race is (5) Zanbagh at $26. She’s won this race the last two years. Don’t take too much notice of the fact she finished last in the Coolmore last start. She finished last second up last prep and then came out third up and won a Group 3 race at Newcastle over a similar distance. Her first and second up records are terrible, but she’s won five from nine when third up, so look for sharp improvement. (3) Dixie Blossoms can turn the tables on (1) Daysee Doom. She was fairly unlucky in the Coolmore last start and was beaten less than a length. She beat Daysee Doom over a mile last preparation, so with a clear run in the straight I’d expect her to go close. (2) Foxplay not hopeless.
TIP: (4) Prompt Response / (5) Zanbagh EW
RACE 5
Looks a nice race for the Kiwi (6) Mongolian Marshall, who has won his past two in New Zealand, including a dominant victory last start. He’s from a very smart stable and provided Craig Williams doesn’t butcher the ride, he should go close here stepping up to the 2000m. (7) Primitivo is crying out for the step up in trip, and while 1400m up to 2000m is of some concern to me, he hit the line at Canberra like a horse that will relish the trip. (11) Tangmere didn’t do anything in the Guineas but he’s certainly bred to like this sort of trip. (5) Weather With You went down as favourite last start but the trip was well short of his best. His only victory came over 2200m so the 2000m here is a much better fit for him. (2) Levendi has the 2000m run under his belt and is drawn well with a red-hot jockey aboard. Wouldn’t be ruling out (13) Octobello at $51. He needed the run first up and the Phar Lap Stakes is typically a good form race leading into this.
(6) Mongolian Marshall
RACE 6
(1) Gailo Chop is in the form of his career and racked up another win last start, bolting in by 3L in the Ranvet Stakes. That was very much a race he should have won though – there wasn’t a great deal of depth to the field at all. He’s every chance of winning this race as well but I’ll be opposing him today. (2) Almandin should have won the Australian Cup, in my opinion. He went back from the wide barrier and snuck up the inside rail, which was where you needed to be on the day. He just never got clear running, and if he did, I think he would have run straight past the likes of Gailo Chop. He’ll go back today and he’ll relish the step up to 2400m. Taking $3.40. Also keen to stick with (6) Auvray at $10, who won very well at good odds for us last start. He’s flying and he’s only going to get better with the step up to 2400m. I thought his win was extremely good last start, and he’s won four from eight starts at this distance so with $10 available once again, he’s a good price to have something on again. I’m expecting (5) Who Shot Thebarman to really improve sharply at $31. He rarely does anything first or second up, but his third up record is good, so with the step up in trip I can see him being competitive. Happy to keep playing around (9) Single Gaze.
TIP: (2) Almandin / (6) Auvray EW
RACE 7
Competitive race. (7) Unforgotten won at good odds for us last start and has looked a filly with Group 1 potential for a while now. Her win last start was huge when coming from the back of the field. She steps up sharply to 2000m now, which is her first attempt at the distance, but I’ll stick with her. Short enough at $4.40 given the depth to this field. The value could be the New Zealand filly (8) Danzdanzdance at $8.50. She ran 3rd to Vin De Dance in the NZ Derby over 2400m last start. Vin De Dance ran 2nd (before being relegated on protest) in the Rosehill Guineas last week, so that form has held up and it also indicates the drop from 2400m back to 2000m is no problem. (3) Bring Me Roses rates highly. Each run this campaign has been terrific and she was beaten just 2L in the Coolmore Classic against the older mares last start. That form holds up time and again in this race so I expect her to go close. She’ll handle the 2000m no problem. Another race that normally holds up is the Kembla Grange Classic, which is the race (5) Torvill comes from. (1) Aliosia and (2) Alizee are the two big query runners – on their best form they’d likely win this but there’s some questions to be asked over how they’re going.
TIP: (7) Unforgotten / (8) Danzdanzdance EW
RACE 8
Tough race to split a few. Going to stick with (4) Interlocuter who was only fair first up but may have needed the run. He’s a quality animal and I won’t be dropping off just yet. He’s down in weight, up in distance, second up, drawn well and looks a good chance at $5.50. (10) Cellarman is flying and should have gone very close in the G2 Ajax Stakes over this track and distance last start. He didn’t have a lot of luck on that occasion and had won three straight prior to that race, so with the good draw, there’s no reason he can’t win here. (6) Shiraz ran well first up and was a winner at this track and distance at the end of last prep. The stable is flying and it wouldn’t shock to see him around the mark. (2) Ecuador is attempting to do what his stablemate Excess Knowledge did a few years ago. He comes out of the Lexus (2500m) last Spring and is first up here. He’ll likely lead and will give a great sight. He’s an eight-year-old now and in recent times it’s been 4-6YO’s that have won this race. (8) Mister Sea Wolf finished ahead of Shiraz first up but his second up record isn’t as sharp. Chances don’t end there.
TIP: (4) Interlocuter
RACE 9
Cracking race to finish off with. Godolphin hold a strong hand here and I’ll stick with the favourite (5) Osbourne Bulls, who was luckless at Kembla last start when held up for large parts of the straight. He draws an inside barrier again today but at least it’s not barrier 1. Trusting Avdulla will give him his chance. (13) Beau Geste is the other Godolphin horse, and he’s a very talented type. He resumed with a big run over 1200m at Warwick Farm, just being beaten by 0.3L. Kerrin McEvoy is a big plus but barrier 1 isn’t a plus at all. He’s likely to be well back and strung up in traffic. (8) Stonebrook was good fresh when 2nd in the same race that Osbourne Bulls finished 2nd in at Kembla. He’ll go forward and lead and will be in front for a long way. (10) Tribal Wisdom looks a good chance at decent odds. He was awfully unlucky first up at the Valley and was very strong late last start. Avdulla jumps off him to ride the favourite and Oliver jumps on. Wide barrier no issue as he gets back anyway. Expect him to hit the line very hard. (11) Up ‘N’ Rolling gets the blinkers back on today. (4) Special Missile not hopeless.
TIP: (5) Osbourne Bulls / (10) Tribal Wisdom EW
QUADDIE
1, 2, 6
1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8
2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10
4, 5, 8, 10, 11, 13
$100 = 15.43%
