Group 1 racing once again this weekend from Rosehill Gardens in Sydney with The BMW and the Vinery Stud Stakes.
Along with the two Group 1's we also have two Group 2's and four Group 3's on the nine-race card. We can once again expect a very Heavy track so we'll be looking for horses proven on the ground.
We have betting tips below for every race on what is sure to be a cracking card!
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Race 1
Really tough race to start off with. Astoria bolted in on debut at Warwick Farm earlier in the month and the key to that win was it being on a Heavy track which is a box that plenty of these other runners can't tick. The problem with her win is the horses she beat haven't exactly franked the form. The horse that finished 2nd to her came out on Wednesday and was beaten 8 lengths. She gets conditions to suit her once again but this is much harder. VILLA CARLOTTA defeated the likes of Alizee on debut and Alizee then came out and ran 2nd to Tulip in Group 3 company. Last start was beaten 7 lengths but the first two then went on to quinella the Golden Slipper so the form actually looks pretty reasonable. At the odds of $7.50 it's definitely worth having something on. MURAAHIB comes down from Melbourne after running well in the Blue Diamond despite travelling wide. Definite chance. MERCHANT NAVY worth including after a good debut win in Melbourne, while the value could be Godolphin's second runner MARSUPIAL. This horse defeated Frolic on debut (Frolic then ran 2nd in the Golden Slipper) which was on a Soft track. I think getting back onto a wet track here along with the step up in distance could see him competitive at $17.
Tip: Villa Carlotta EW / Marsupial EW
Race 2
Had this between JUNGLE EDGE and ARTISTRY given there is a few questions marks over some of the other runners in the race. Firstly, Danish Twist drops back from 1500m to 1200m which I think is a big query for her. Her run in the Coolmoore was huge but she failed on a Heavy track two starts ago and has never won at this distance. Impending just doesn't look to have come back the same horse this prep and the fact that he's still racing over 1200m is a bit of a query. He drops back from Group 1 grade and the formline behind Le Romain is very good, but I just don't think he's going well enough to win over 1200m here. JUNGLE EDGE absolutely loves the mud and only just went down to Russian Revolution in the Galaxy last week. Has won 3rd up previously and he gets conditions to suit him here so if he reproduces his last effort he will be mighty hard to beat. ARTISTRY put to bed the myth about her wet track form with an impressive win first up from a spell on Soft ground. Gets it much wetter here which is a genuine query but loves the track and the distance and typically holds her form second up. Looks the value at nearly $10.
Tip: Jungle Edge / Artistry EW
Race 3
ASTRONOMOS looks one of the better bets on the card here at $2.70. Absolutely bolted in when second up on the heavy track last start when he was our best bet of the day. Don't think there's anything stopping him doing so again here - he has won two from three when third up from a spell and he'll once again get the heavy track he relishes (he's won four from five on heavy!). Stays at 2000m and only has the 55kg to deal with so he looks a fantastic chance. ZASORCERESS looks the logical danger after flashing home against the pattern of the day in the Group 3 Matron Stakes over 1600m last start. The step up in distance looks a good option for her now but the heavy track is a slight query. The other concern is Weir's record in Sydney, having only scored his first ever winner last week with Big Duke. Happy to take her on today with Astronomos.
Tip: Astronomos (best bet)
Race 4
Pretty keen to take on a few of the more fancied runners here. Happy to back both NEW TIPPERARY and MARENOSTRO. New Tipperary was a huge run second up when he was three-wide the trip and still stuck on to finish 2nd behind It's Somewhat in Group 2 company. The query here is the very heavy track given he failed first up on the heavy track before improving on firmer ground. But I think he is still relatively unexposed and he should be at his peak here third up. Marenostro has a terrific record on heavy ground with four wins and three placings from seven starts. He has won three of his six races when first up from a spell and he comes into this on the back of two good trials. He could be a value hope at $10. Good odds available for both RUDY and KENJORWOOD (both $8) who both excel on Heavy ground and I wouldn't be turning you away from them.
Tip: New Tipperary / Marenostro EW
Race 5
Prized Icon looks enormous unders here at $3.60 given how badly he failed on the Heavy track in the Guineas last week. He was beaten 17L and with conditions sure to be similar he looks vulnerable. The only two I'm really interested in backing here are JON SNOW and WINE BUSH. Jon Snow comes out of the Group 1 NZ Derby which was won by Gingernuts who subsequently bolted in to win the Rosehill Guineas over this trip. If this horse can reproduce his run from the Derby here then he'll be very tough to beat. Slight query over the drop back to 2000m but it didn't stop Gingernuts so might not stop Jon Snow. WINE BUSH was backed as if he'd just win last start but he was pretty ordinary. The blinkers go back on here and the support from last start as well as the application of blinkers tells me he may be ready to do something. He's placed at both starts on heavy ground and he really should be able to show something in this field at $11.
Tip: Jon Snow / Wine Bush EW
Race 6
Found this incredibly difficult to sort out and doubt I'll be having a bet but I ended up with JAMEKA narrowly on top. She gets out to her ideal distance now of 2400m and her run last start behind Humidor over 2000m was enormous given the early work she did. Whether that hard run tells here remains to be seen but she the last time she ran over 2400m was the Caulfield Cup when she bolted in. She's won her only start on heavy ground and she should go close. OUR IVANHOWE relished the heavy ground as expected first up in the Group 1 Ranvet Stakes when he beat Hartnell by over 3 lengths. The step up to 2400m should be no problem here and the heavy ground brings him right into this. EXOSPHERIC is ready to win after a luckless 3rd behind Humidor and Jameka last start. He's never run on heavy ground but his breeding really suggests he should like it. He was beaten by over 2 lengths by Jameka in the Caulfield Cup but I think he's come back better this prep. TAVAGO won easily in Group 3 company last start and rates to go close too. He actually beat Jameka by 3 lengths this time last year in the Australian Derby and I'm prepared to say the heavy ground wasn't the reason he was beaten 5 lengths by Winx first up! Can win. Prepared to take on Humidor today. Sticking with Jameka (not confidently) with Exospheric as the value.
Tip: Jameka / Exospheric EW
Race 7
The win of Foxplay last start was out of this world but I have massive concerns here back onto a bottomless heavy track which was her undoing two starts ago. That, along with the step up from 1500m to 2000m, is enough for me to take her on today. I love her but at those odds there's too many questions for me to confidently back her. I'll be backing her stablemate LA BELLA DIOSA and forgiving her for her failure last start. She pulled up coughing after the race and while that's a query heading into this race, I think she's good enough to bounce back with the step up to 2000m and the heavy track. She is a Group 1 winner over 1600m in New Zealand and she beat Omei Sword and Global Glamour first up on the heavy track at Randwick. DAWN WALL could be toughest to beat. She's won her last three straight and did win over 1800m two starts ago. I think she's certainly good enough to win and while she's never had a start on heavy ground she did win on a Soft 6 last start. HARLOW GOLD is ready to win after two good runs back from a spell. She will need every bit of the 2000m (and more) and she's also won on soft ground previously. Tough race but tentatively leaning towards La Bella Dios at $6.
Tip: La Bella Diosa
Race 8
Prepared to give DIXIE BLOSSOMS another go here after she was trapped four-wide without cover in the Group 1 Coolmoore Classic. Her run before that was a 6.5L win over Zanbagh over 1400m which would be enough to see her win this I think. She draws wide again but if she can find cover she can win and the $5 on offer looks good. I think we'll see sharp improvement from ZANBAGH today after a solid run in the Coolmoore. She goes up 3kg in weight here but her third up record is very good and that is when she peaks. She goes very well on heavy ground so all the factors point towards her running a big race here and I think she's the value at $9. ROCKET COMMANDER won an easier race last start but she excels in the heavy ground and will appreciate the extra distance so she is definitely one to include, while EXTENSIBLE and EURO ANGEL are also worth thought.
Tip: Dixie Blossoms / Zanbagh EW (best value)
Race 9
Ordinary race to finish on and a tough one at that. Not confident at all but perhaps ANCIENT HISTORY can win after his solid first up run at Kembla Grange. Didn't place on his only start on heavy ground which is some query but may be good enough to win this with just 54kg on his back. BRING LUCK will be around the mark having placed in five of his seven runs on heavy ground. Ran well first up behind Spectroscope who is favourite for an earlier race and if he runs up to that he'll go close. The value could be BE LIKE DAD who won on heavy ground first after after sitting wide. Has placed four of his five runs on heavy and no reason he can't be in the finish again here.
Tip: Ancient History / Be Like Dad EW
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
