Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, July 27th.
The track is currently rated a Good 4 but there is a bit of rain forecast for Saturday so we’ll have to keep an eye on track conditions. The rail is in the true position.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. Tune into Episode 44 of the Before You Bet Podcast below to get Tim's thoughts on every race at both Rosehill and Caulfield!
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 6 #10 Paret
Next Best Bet: Race 4 #12 Raqeeq
Best Value: Race 1 #7 Aliferous
RACE 1
Moderate sort of two-year-old race to start off with here. From the runners that have been going around in metro grade, I’m not really drawn to anything, so I’ve got more interest in the two runners coming off wins at Newcastle on July 7th. (2) Inherit won on debut for Waller and has been back to the trials since that win in preparation for the 1500m here. Bowman takes the ride and this track can often favour those with inside runs so barrier 3 looks good. (7) Aliferous also won over 1200m on the same day as Inherit and ran a quicker time in doing so. The Kris Lees stable is flying at the moment and James McDonald takes the ride. Likely to be coming from back in the field but looks a genuine chance. Both at good odds so something small on both.
Also backing: (2) Inherit $9.00 Ladbrokes
RACE 2
Tricky little race. The favourite (3) Falcon Island comes off an 8L win at Wyong but that’s hardly ever form to get excited about when assessing Saturday metro races. He has clearly appreciated the step up in distance in his recent starts and will likely do so again but I’ll be risking him here. (1) Sweet Victory has been an early drifter in betting but was good two starts ago behind Tornado Gal and was luckless last start. Draws barrier 9 here and carries top weight but has had the run at 2000m and has creditable metro form. (5) The Macallan made his Australian debut last start and was sound. He was fresh off a four-week break so will likely be better off for that run and up to 2000m. McDonald on board and barrier 1 are both positives. Waller’s other runner (4) Huangshan comes off a win at Gosford over 1900m and can go well with Bowman on.
Also backing: (5) The Macallan $5.50 Ladbrokes
RACE 3
Highway Handicap here and it looks a race in two. The best form for these races is typically other Highway races. I’ve taken on (11) Nicconita in recent starts but today looks to be his day and I’ve got him on top. He’s run 2nd in three straight Highways and has been beaten a nose in the last two of them. He ran home strongly last start and he’s got the benefit of that 1400m run under his belt. McDonald takes over from Shinn today and I think he should be winning this. (6) Roman Typhoon won a Highway last start over 1100m. If that had have been over 1400m he probably would have been on top for me but it won’t be easy stepping up from 1100m to 1500m. Gets McEvoy on board today which is a plus but barrier 8 looks tricky.
RACE 4
Looks a race between the Waller pair (7) Vaucluse Bay and (12) Raqeeq here, though (3) Just Shine adds some interest. Vaucluse Bay and Raqeeq ran the quinella last start over this track and distance and the runs from both of them were enormous. Vaucluse Bay sat wide without cover all race and still managed to cling on from Raqeeq, who settled a long way back, coursed wide around the turn and finished off very strongly down the outside. Both draw favourably here with Vaucluse Bay in barrier 4 with Bowman on and Raqeeq in barrier 3 with McEvoy on board. The draw probably suits Vaucluse Bay a bit better given his ability to settle further forward in the field. I think Raqeeq is better suited and ready to win third up today with that run over 2000m under his belt. He really has no excuses here and looks very hard to hold out, but Vaucluse Bay will give him something to think about. Just Shine found his race the other day and continued his terrific second up record. He has won third up before and should no way be dismissed.
Value: (7) Vaucluse Bay $7.00 Sportsbet
RACE 5
Two at good odds that quite interest me here. The favourite (5) Condor Heroes has his first start in 11 months, last seen finishing down the track in the G3 San Domenico Stakes. He was a talented two-year-old but he must be considered a huge query first up here. If any trainer can get him right to go for a race like this, it’s Gerald Ryan, but I think he’s worth taking on. (2) Piracy is a $5 chance but has had four first up runs for one placing. He’s got 60kg and barrier 9 here so happy to play around him. That leaves me with (4) Tip Top on top at a good each way price around $6.50. He was sound first up when 4th over 1000m. Better suited up in distance to 1100m here and he’s undefeated from two previous second up attempts. (7) Argent D’or saluted in midweek company last start but can measure up here at near double figure odds. He normally takes a few runs to get going but he’s hit form now and it’s the right time to return to Saturday grade. McEvoy takes the ride.
Value: (7) Argent D'or $9.50 Neds
RACE 6
Very keen on (10) Paret here at $4.60. He resumed with a solid run behind Star Of Monsoon and Smartedge over 1200m when he settled near the back of the field. The form out of that race has already been franked with Smartedge coming out and winning his next start. Hopefully Paret can settle a touch closer today but the step up to 1400m is really going to help him. He’s a talented type and I don’t think we’ve seen the best of him yet, but Bowman going on indicates he’s ready to win and I really don’t think there is a great deal to beat in this field.
RACE 7
Big field and competitive one at that for the feature of the day. Barrier 1 gives (4) Invinzabeel his chance today and absolutely no excuses. I think the form behind Dreamforce is good and he gets in better at the weights to Flow from two starts ago. (10) Show A Star is horribly drawn but he resumes with a good first up record and strung together a few wins last preparation. He looks over the odds at $13. (1) Hiflyer gets blinkers applied for the first time today and gets Bowman on board. (16) Flow is drawn ideally in barrier 3 with McEvoy on board and goes back up in trip today, but he’s a horse that really has to find the right race and I’m not convinced this is it. Blinkers also go on (9) Mister Sea Wolf for the first time but he’s so far been disappointing in Australia.
Value: (10) Show A Star $13 Neds
RACE 8
One of the most competitive races of the day. (13) Star Of Monsoon resume with a very good win over Smartedge and Paret and we saw Smartedge frank that form already with a win in midweek company. His time for the 1200m was good, he draws well and gets McEvoy on so gets every chance to make it back-to-back wins. But he’s about the right price in an open race. His stablemate (6) Albumin has three wins on the trot to his name and proved the 1200m was no problem last start. He’s got a trickier task today from barrier 12 with 58.5kg on his back but he’s flying and that might not be enough to stop him winning again. (9) Insensata was possibly a touch unlucky not to beat Albumin last start and will be better off for that run. Will go back once again from barrier 13 but she’s won second up before and if they go very quick up front they will set the race up nicely for her. (10) Eusebio comes off a first up win in Melbourne and we saw Gaulois come back to Sydney from Melbourne and win so the form stands up. Another Godolphin runner is (12) Drachenfels who was possibly a touch disappointing first up but has never finished outside the top two when second up and draws well in barrier 3 here. Could be the value at double figure odds. (3) Souchez returns as a gelding first up.
Value: (12) Drachenfels $10 Neds
RACE 9
Continuing the theme of the day here with a big, competitive field. (13) Oria continues to run well without being able to get her nose in front. She gets in lightly weighted today with 52kg and draws well in barrier 5 so gets her chance to win one again at good each way odds. (12) Bella Success was only a nose behind Oria in 3rd last start and is knocking on the door. McEvoy takes over today and she will be flashing home from the back of the field. (2) Envy Of All has won her past two – one in Brisbane and one in Sydney. She draws well again and Blake Shinn chooses to keep the ride on her instead of Smart Amelia, but the big query with Envy Of All is the dry ground. All three career wins have been on wet ground. (1) Upscale had the blinkers applied for the first time last start and improved out of sight. She’s third up from a lengthy spell here and could be ready to win. Looks a value chance at $10.
