Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, August 11th, featuring The Rosebud for the three-year-old’s.
We have nine races on a Good track and with sunny weather predicted for Saturday, it will probably favour horses up on speed.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below.
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 #7 Paret
Best Value: Race 7 #6 Emperor’s Way
RACE 1
Highway Handicap to kick off proceedings here and it looks a pretty competitive one. (7) Jetgirl goes on top. I normally consider Dubbo and Bathurst form completely rubbish for a Saturday Highway Handicap at metro level but the style in which she’s won her past two starts has been impressive. Drawn barrier 1 and can kick up from the inside and lead. (6) Bon Allen looks a terrific each way bet in the race around $8.00. He won two starts ago at Muswellbrook and carried that form into a Highway Handicap last start when he was just nosed out. I often say the best form for Highways is normally Highways and he’s one of only two in the race that ran in a Highway last start. (3) Lifesaver represents an ominous combination of Dunn and Angland and must be respected first up. (2) Table Mountain gets Bowman on first up but has only won over 1300m and beyond so 1100m first up might prove a touch sharp.
Value: (6) Bon Allen $8.00 Sportsbet
RACE 2
Looks a bit of a two-horse race this, even though there’s multiple Waller runners engaged which often means anything can win. (4) Estikhraaj comes back to Sydney for his third run of the campaign after having two starts in Queensland to get him ready. This is a tactic we’re seeing Waller employ pretty regularly now. He’s yet to win over this distance but he has run 2nd on two occasions. Has the weight to carry but Bowman goes on and he looks ready to win. (7) Nicci’s Gold has been going around has been going around in this sort of grade all preparation and hasn’t been far off in any of her starts. She was luckless last start when she never got a run in the straight and if luck falls her way today she should be right in the finish again. (1) Braces is flying but the drop back from 2400m to 2000m is concerning and the jockey booking is too.
RACE 3
Very keen on (4) Island Missile here but there are a few interesting runners in the race. Island Missile won well in midweek company two starts back and then ran well when finishing 3rd as favourite behind (1) Bergerac last start. He gets a good weight swing on that runner today and draws well in barrier 6 so he can definitely turn the tables. The value could be the bottom runner (12) Excelsior at double figure odds. He ran 2nd behind Seahampton first up before being trapped wide without cover throughout the race last start. I think the form out of that race behind Paret will be okay and with barrier 1 today he can be right up on the speed. (2) Zourkhan is first up over an unsuitable trip but does get Angland on board and he has placed in five of his six first up runs. (8) Travancore went close last start and is knocking on the door, while (10) Snitzel Day is another coming into form.
Value: (12) Excelsior $11 Sportsbet
RACE 4
Good race. (2) Irithea was very well backed at long odds just before the jump last start and justified the support with a strong win. She’s still only having her fourth run of the campaign and carries the same weight as she did last start so there’s no reason she shouldn’t be very competitive once again. (5) Istria was a huge run first up, beaten a nose by Oria over 1200m at this track. All four career wins have come over 1400m (from six attempts) so she looks very well suited today. Might need a touch of luck from barrier 2 if she gets back as far as she did last start. (6) Mandylion ran 2nd to Irithea first up and gets a weight swing in her favour today. Should roll forward from out wide and give a good sight. (8) Sweet Scandal made it a hattrick of wins last start when bolting in at Warwick Farm. Steps up to Saturday grade for the first time here but based on last start she should be up to it. (11) Bella Success continues to reel off good finishing splits but just can’t seem to settle close enough to the speed, while (12) Seahampton was very disappointing as favourite last start but has since been back to the trials and you wouldn’t put it past Waller to have him bounce back today.
RACE 5
(2) Tactical Advantage was simply explosive first up when he belted his rivals in the July Sprint at Randwick. He has a terrific record at the distance and already has a win and a 2nd from three starts at this track/distance. Bowman takes over today and he draws to get the gun run from barrier 4. The concern is he goes up nearly 8kg from that win and there’s always a slight query of whether a horse can back up such a big win fresh. That leaves little surprise that the Godolphin runner (9) Trekking has been well supported in early betting, even into favouritism in some places. He’s another one with a good record at the track and distance and the stable have these horses returning in terrific form recently. He trialled well, gets 7kg off Tactical Advantage and looks hard to beat. (3) Sir Plush was a good enough run first up with things against him. He can improve at big odds. (7) Diddums has won two from three first up and was a dominant winner at the track and distance first up last prep. Gets glue on shoes for the first time today which is a query but Gerald Ryan typically has his horses ready to win first up. (10) Miss Que is undefeated first up and is a value chance.
RACE 6
The feature race of the day as the three-year-old’s head towards the Golden Rose. I think (4) Plague Stone is probably just the best horse in the field and his win first up was very good despite the small margin. He’s only going to be better suited second up and up in distance so it’s hard to go past him. (3) Sandbar has some strong juvenile form behind him with a couple of good wins and a 2nd placing to Written By. Returns from a spell here with McEvoy on board and has won a trial leading into this. Awkward barrier some concern. (6) Exceltic never saw daylight first up and gets blinkers on for the first time today. (7) Golden Tycoon was well supported at good odds on debut and justified it with a very impressive win. It was only midweek grade but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him measure up here at double figure odds. Keep him very safe. Very happy to take on (5) Oxford Tycoon who comes off a big win in a two-year-old maiden at Wyong. Huge rise in class here.
RACE 7
Big field and an open race with little standing out. (1) Mister Sea Wolf won the lottery last start but the blinkers went on for the first time and Collett gave him an absolute peach. Drawn awkward here with the apprentice back on – hard to get excited about his price. (6) Emperor’s Way is the one that interests me most. He’s had two runs back to blow out the cobwebs and build fitness and he now steps up to 1800m at his third run back. Draws well and really should be starting to show something so the $9.00 looks a good eachway bet. (8) Harper’s Choice has been freshened up since her last start win over 2400m. Has had a trial in between runs and Collett is a notable jockey booking for her so I’d be keeping her safe. (10) Carzoff is another of these Waller runners who has had two prep runs in Queensland before coming back to Sydney third up. Has a good record at the track and distance and should go close.
RACE 8
Another highly competitive race with a big field and plenty of chances. Interested in sticking with (8) Show A Star at around $19. He was caught wide first up and pulled up lame so don’t judge his effort too harshly. He’s got a terrific record second up and he should be able to roll forward from the wide barrier with Adam Hyeronimus on board. Expecting sharp improvement. (2) I Am Coldplay is an interesting runner having its first start in Australia for Waller/Bowman. Has run in Group 1 level back in New Zealand and hasn’t been far off the likes of Lizzie L’amour. (10) Flow continues to run well and looks well placed again but will need a great ride to win this from barrier 12. (13) I Am Serious is first up at 1400m here but the jockey booking of Jay Ford probably indicates to me she might just be underdone.
RACE 9
Very keen to follow up on (7) Paret here who saluted as our best bet last start at basically the same track and distance. He is starting to deliver on the promise he showed as a juvenile and he’s third up today so probably still open to improve. Drawn well, Bowman sticks with him and I don’t think he has a great deal to beat here. (3) Ghostly comes out of a strong race behind the likes of Smartedge and Metamorphic (who came out and won midweek). Should be in the finish. As should stablemate (5) Absolute, who gets Tye Angland aboard after a solid first up win at Kembla. Needs to improve on that level of form but he proved last prep that he’s up to metro grade.
