A massive game closes out Friday night NRL action, as the book of feuds is set to be added to, when the Roosters and Rabbitohs ignite round 3 of the NRL Premiership. These matches are renowned for fireworks, so I can’t wait to settle in and catch this one on Friday night. With two wins for the Roosters last season, the Rabbitohs will be out for revenge.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to keep up to date with all the NRL fixtures, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
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- Guide to Betting on the NRL
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- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 3 Preview & Betting Tips
Sydney Roosters vs South Sydney Rabbitohs
Allianz Stadium, Friday 22nd March, 8:00pm (AEDT)
Last Week
The Rabbitohs lost their second straight to start season 2024 last week, going down 28-18 to the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium. Souths kept with the Broncos for the first 50 minutes, however conceded three tries in a dominant 25-minute period by the Broncos, to go down and slip to 0-2. There were some concerning performances from the Rabbitohs, with Latrell Mitchell appearing to give up on certain plays defensively, whilst halfback Lachlan Ilias has been made the scapegoat for Souths’ poor start to the season, dropped for round 3 in favour of Dean Hawkins. In other team news, off-season recruit Jack Wighton is set to start his first game for the Rabbitohs in the centres, which should form a potent left-side attack for the Souths side.
As for the Roosters, they came crashing back to earth last week, going down 21-14 to the Sea Eagles in a tightly contested affair. In a back-and-forth game where both teams scored three tries, neither team were able to completely take over the game, with both teams unable to score back-to-back tries. The Roosters have their defence to thank for getting so close to the Sea Eagles, as Manly ran for 500m more than the Roosters, whilst making far less errors and conceding five fewer penalties. Lack of discipline was a huge problem for the Roosters last season, and if they can’t fix these issues they will once again be heading for an early off-season. In team news, Luke Keary (concussion) is out, replaced by Sandon Smith. Meanwhile, Siua Wong has been dropped, with Nat Butcher elevated to start on the edge, and Angus Crichton coming onto the bench.
Match Preview
As mentioned, these teams met twice last season, with the Roosters winning at home in round 3 (20-18), and again in round 27 on the road (26-12). The Rabbitohs closed as 2.5-point favourites in both matchups, however the Roosters were obviously able to win both games outright. Latrell Mitchell was a notable omission from that round 27 loss at home, however it continued what has been a poor run of form for the Rabbitohs since as far back as June 2023, the last time they beat a top 8 side (Warriors). There is something brewing at the club, with Sam Burgess appearing to be far more accurate than many gave him credit for.
The Roosters opened 3.5-point favourites, however with the loss of Keary and the addition for the Rabbitohs of Wighton, money has come in on the Rabbitohs, to where the Roosters now sit as 1.5/2-point favourites at most places. My model, which admittedly is still heavily weighted on last year’s performances, makes this closer to a pick’em, however I have not liked what I’ve seen from the Rabbitohs this season, and see the Roosters as some value here at home, with my power ratings for this season rating the Roosters as 5-point favourites here.
The total opened 39.5, which is exactly where it remains. My fair total for this one is smack bang on 39.5, so I see no value here. Of note, in 16 games to start the season, 11 games have gone under the total. This was the same last season after two rounds, however round 3 last year saw the first glimmer of hope for overs bettors, with 6 of the 8 games going over the total. Something to think about.
I do like the Roosters to get the job done here. Both teams have struggled in attack to start the season, and it’s the defence of both sides where I can see a way into this game. The Roosters, whilst conceding the most run metres per game of any side in the competition, have refused to concede line breaks and tries. They are conceding the fifth-least points per game, and the second-least line-breaks per game. With a new halfback and new combinations, the Rabbitohs might struggle to break this Roosters wall. Roosters to get the job done in a tight one.
Roosters -2.5
$1.92 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Roosters ML – As above, I like the Roosters to get it done.
Jack Wighton (1+ try) – Wighton’s first outing for the Rabbitohs, expect the Bunnies to get left early and often. Latrell Mitchell will love nothing more than getting his mate a first career try for the cardinal and myrtle.
Dom Young (1+ try) – Young showed last week he is going to be a great pick up for the Roosters, and at plus money to get a try, when he’s marking up against Alex Johnston, I love this leg. AJ showed last week his wheels are gone, and with a height/weight/speed advantage, the Roosters should target Young all night.
SGM Odds: $11.78 at Neds
