Welcome to our horse racing preview of Royal Randwick for Saturday, 16th of September, which of course is headlined by Winx in the Group 1 Colgate Optic White Stakes. We have nine races on the card and we're set to race on a Good 3. That may play to the leaders' advantage in the early races due to the firmness of the track making it hard to make up ground.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet - Redzel Race 7
Best Value - Improvement EW Race 9
Race 1
The Highway Handicap over 1000m opens the day and it's really not a race I'm overly keen to be involved in. There's only one horse that takes my interest and that's SHE KNOWS who resumes in this race after winning a Goulburn maiden back at the end of April. What interests me is the fact that she failed on debut in wet conditions, but bolted in next start back on firm ground. She ran 57.47 for the 1000m and won by 2L. I think it's a deliberate move to have her first up here with 53kg on her back and at $5.50 I could entertain having a bet on her. UNDEROAF has won three of his last four races on the Canberra Acton surface, but we've seen just how poor that form has worked out for horses when they come to Sydney. The one race he didn't win was in a Highway and he was beaten nearly 4L so I'd take him on here. Bowman takes the ride on OAKFIELD TIME which is a strong push, while LARLABROOK resumes from a spell with a 5L trial win under his belt.
TIP: She Knows
Race 2
Keen on ROYAL NAVY here who was our best bet of the day last start when charging home to be beaten a nose on the tearaway leader. Slightly negative jockey change with McEvoy heading to Melbourne, so Clark takes over, but with the 1600m run under her belt I think she'll be absolutely primed to win here. Has a good third up record and carries just 53kg with the rise in grade. Hard to beat. VELADERO was well-backed first up which was his first start as a gelding. He got caught three-wide the trip and finished well-beaten back in 7th, but with a better ride today he could bounce back. The money first up suggests the gelding operation may have done the trick. EMBLEY notched up a win last start but it was in a particularly low race. Having said that, he does drop in weight and does usually need a few runs to hit his peak so now that he's had four runs and has a win under his belt, he could go on with it. PRADA MISS could be the value. She rises in grade but drops significantly in weight here. Gets in with just 51.5kg and the races she's come out of have stacked up form-wise. Should get a gun run from the barrier.
TIP: Royal Navy / Prada Miss EW
Race 3
Two mainly that I'm interested in here. MARSUPIAL was very heavily backed to win first up from a spell, and his run was enormous but he just found Tango Rain a touch too good on a track that favoured front-runners. Tango Rain has since come out and run very well again, so I think that's a formline that can be followed. Marsupial could sit a touch further forward from the good draw today, and with the run under his belt, I think he rates a very good chance of winning this. Happy to take the $3.30 compared to the $3.20 of MALAHAT who was also very well backed last start but that was in an easier Wednesday race. He did it comfortably, aided by a gun ride from Bowman, but he's unlikely to get the same favours today from the wide draw in a harder race. SINGLE BULLET is the biggest danger. He's probably the class horse in the race and has the potential to go on to much better races. He's had two trials leading into this. The first was a winning trial over SHe Will Reign, and the second was much quieter behind another field of Group 1 sprinters. We could see him go forward from the good draw, in which case he'll be tough to run down. Backing Marsupial, saving on Single Bullet.
TIP: Marsupial
Race 4
Some great horses involved here but the market is very ugly with COMIN' THROUGH rated $2.50 and TOM MELBOURNE rated $3. I think the way I'll be playing is to back Comin' Through and save on Tom Melbourne. Comin' Through led all the way first up with 60.5kg on his back, and he drops to 53kg with the rise in grade here. He's more than capable of making the step up and Waller has said he could be anything. There isn't a great deal of speed in this race either, but I doubt they'll send him to the front from the wide barrier, which means he'll have to come from the back of the field. TOM MELBOURNE has run 2nd in both starts for Waller and arguably should have won both. He was beaten by Happy Clapper last start which is a genuine Group 1 horse, and from the good barrier today he should get the run of the race. The big query is his record of four starts for zero placings third up from a spell. BURNING PASSION could control the race in front, and if he does he could be hard to get past. NO DOUBT can continue to run well.
TIP: Comin' Through
Race 5
Pretty keen on TULIP here with the step up to 1400m, which is the distance she won her Group 2 at back in the Autumn. She draws perfectly here which should allow her to sit right up on the speed, and that means she'll be getting a few lengths head start on CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES. Bowman takes the ride and she should be very hard to beat at $3.40. CHAMPAGNE CUDDLES should be suited by the 1400m after two good runs so far this prep. Barrier 9 means she'll probably have to get a fair way back again and if she's giving Tulip a few lengths head start I doubt she'll catch her. I'm prepared to risk ALIZEE again today. She had her chance to run down Formality in her past two starts but wasn't good enough. She's had the three runs back so if she was going to win it was probably going to be last start or the start prior when she had race fitness on her side, but she's exposed now and the others also have runs under their belts. The Waterhouse/Bott stable talked up PANDEMONIUM before her last start and after she won it too. No surprise to see her measure up, and the same can be said about ACQUME who comes off a strong win at Warwick Farm.
TIP: Tulip
Race 6
Think this race will suit Winx much better than her previous two wins to start the prep. There looks really good tempo here with ECUADOR and RED EXCITEMENT engaged and that should mean it's not a sit-sprint. The obvious trifecta looks to be Winx with Foxplay and Happy Clapper filling the placings, in no particular order. My bet in the race would be FOXPLAY to place given we're getting a better price at $1.83, compared to Happy Clapper at $1.60. If you're chasing a bit of value for the exotics I'd include HEAVEN'S ABOVE at $5 for the place. She was only fair first up but that's exactly what she did last prep before winning a Group 1 at her second up run. She's never missed the top two from four starts when second up, so $5 for the place seems a reasonable bet.
TIP: Winx (Foxplay to place)
Race 7
Very, very keen on REDZEL here. He was dominant first up when going straight to the front with 60kg and never giving anything else a sight. That's exactly what he'll do here and he actually carries 2kg less weight today. His main opposition according to the market are CHAUTAUQUA and ENGLISH. Chautauqua is being set for The Everest and although his first up record is outstanding, he hasn't won first up for a while now, and he's going to be giving Redzel an almighty start on a track that's rock hard. His end goal is a few weeks away, they won't have him screwed down for the 1100m here. ENGLISH is his biggest danger I think, but although she's won three of her four first up races, she's actually never placed from three attempts over 1100m. She has a tricky draw in barrier 9, and she's also being aimed at The Everest. Redzel is race fit, drops weight, has Bowman on board, draws well, goes straight to the front and will be extremely hard to run down. Interested to see TAKEDOWN first up. Gary Moore believes he's got him back to his best after he returned flat from Hong Kong. He's trialled well, has a good record at the distance and draws nicely.
TIP: Redzel (Best Bet)
Race 8
Sticking with LIFE LESS ORDINARY from the good draw today. He was terrific first up behind Comin' Through and there was money that day to suggest he was in for a good prep. Last start just wasn't suited behind the tearaway leader in the race won by Winx. He drew wide that day and got back to the tail of the field. From barrier 5 today he can hopefully sit a touch closer with the step up to 2000m sure to help him. ANTONIO GIUSEPPE is another leading chance for Waller but with the wide draw there's the chance he'll get back further than they'd wish. He's going very well and he's ready to win, but the draw hurts. CHOCANTE was a big run first up behind Red Excitement and Winx. He draws to get all the favours on pace again today and while I think he can go well, I'm prepared to take him on at the prices. Include CLASSIC UNIFORM and DEE I CEE at big odds - they'll likely be right up on speed and are the horses with fitness on their side.
TIP: Life Less Ordinary
Race 9
I'd love to tip MISSILE CODA here but this is a vastly superior race to what she dominated last time and I have concerns over the jockey booking from barrier 10 in a race where I expect there to be a decent tempo. Adkins takes 1.5kg off her as a late riding change, which means she gets in with just 51.5kg, but the most I can have is a saver on her at the price. I'm interested in IMPROVEMENT at double figure odds. Ridden quiet first up with the apprentice on, but I think with Clark taking over today, from the good barrier, second up and a trial since her first up run, they'll ride her more aggressive today and she should be able to improve significantly. The other that interests me is DAGNY who is also first up. Has won twice first up and has a good record at the distance. Draws well with Shinn on board and she's also at double figure odds. I THOUGHT SO resumes as a gelding, while ECHO EFFECT sports the blinkers first time and is first up from a spell. Worth nothing Improvement beat her last prep and is better off at the weights here. Looks a wide open race so will just stick to having something small each way on Improvement and Dagny.
TIP: Improvement EW (Best Value) / Dagny EW
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